sk7326
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Everything posted by sk7326
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Well, it talks to the single area where the manager can impact a game the most - the deployment of personnel, especially managing a bullpen. I think those who say they have "none" say it as a response to the sound and fury of things like sacrifices and hit and runs signifying nothing.
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Clemens-Hurst-Boyd-Nipper was probably the best rotation - I'd give Boyd-Nipper the edge over Wakefield-Lowe and Schilling-Pedro 2004 vs Clemens-Hurst was closer than it seems. 1986 bullpen depth was not bad - Schiraldi was great until his meltdown ... but I'd rather have the Timlin-Embree-Foulke or Tazawa-Breslow-Uehara back of the bullpen. The 2003 lineup (with Varitek hitting 27 homeruns as a #9 hitter! And Bill Mueller winning the batting title from the #8 spot) is the best Red Sox lineup I've ever seen. In 2004 - replacing Walker with Bellhorn, and one of Damon's worst seasons with his best, offset by dropoffs from Varitek, I'm not sure where you compare 2004 and 2003. It's pretty close.
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With Iglesias' glove ... an empty .270 or so works ... last year 25% of his bWAR came from defense. In 2012, all of his positive bWAR came on that side too. The caliber of the SS cohort has been shrinking a bit too offensively. He really could be a Mark Belanger equivalent or mid-career Omar Vizquel and be completely effective. (those are still open questions, but you get the idea)
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The jury is out certainly - at the same time Bogaerts is an MVP-level upside ... with a resume to date which historically is a near guarantee of relevance. Trading Iglesias was not a mistake - you have to trade somebody to get help, and Iglesias was not one of your blue chippers. Regarding XB - Guys who can compete - not even be a superstar - in the bigs at his age almost never fail. The only argument is whether he will max out at "starter" vs "someone to tell your kids about".
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LOL - here is the thing. I feel a700 bitterness on one level. But it's the team and season that made me a Sox fan. And honestly, after 2004 - it is hard to get THAT bitter anymore.
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Well Iglesias proved he could hit JUST enough for his glove to play ... and the Red Sox were able to transform him into a proven mid-rotation starter. If you ask me, that'd be a pretty good result for the org.
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Well "the future" is a loaded question. He is some modest hitting ability away from being an everyday starter. Swihart has more upside across more areas than Vasquez. Vasquez has a lead right now being in AAA as opposed to AA (but he's also 2 years older), and the Sox can afford to be patient with Swihart because of Vasquez' presence. That the Red Sox have two potential everyday catchers in their system after letting one walk is pretty impressive considering the deplorable state of catching around the sport.
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Well "the future" is a loaded question. He is some modest hitting ability away from being an everyday starter. Swihart has more upside across more areas than Vasquez. That the Red Sox have two potential everyday catchers in their system after letting one walk is pretty impressive considering the deplorable state of catching around the sport. The 2nd half of Law's list has a number of catching prospects too - though the state of big league catching is awful, the industry clearly is trying to fix it.
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Fun trivia question - What unbreakable record did Dwight Evans set that season? (Hint: Daniel Nava set an unbreakable record in sort of that same spirit).
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I think the offensive and athletic upsides of Swihart are higher. That said, Vasquez is ahead of him right now and could very well be a starting solution as the bat improves. Vasquez' floor is higher (since he probably could be defensive specialist/personal catcher level backup right now if one wanted that). Law noted yesterday in Boston's #5 org ranking that Vasquez not being one of the Red Sox Top 10 prospects is a sincere compliment to what the Sox have been doing on that front. His rankings I've found tend to skew towards athletic ability and offensive approach. Defense matters as you go up the development chain, but defense is generally a skill that gets taught at the professional level - college and amateur just do not provide much grounding there.
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Barnes, maybe for a spot start or so. Webster's star has fallen a bit with his alarming first taste of the bigs (small sample sizes, but a curious lack of feel and a terrible homerun rate for a sinkerballer). Owens less likely, although if he dominates early you never know. Swihart I'd say a clear no. Vasquez at AAA is the first guy coming up for "C", and if Vasquez can hit a bit in AAA this season, I think he takes Pierzynski's ABs. Sox can live with that level of defense if his bat is acceptable.
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Keith Law Top 100 up ... http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/10166140/byron-buxton-tops-2014-ranking-top-100-prospects-mlb Red Sox highlights ... (eligibility = not used up rookie eligibility yet, no Japan/Korea major experience, and no Abreu who is 27) #2. Xander Bogaerts #42. Henry Owens #51 Jackie Bradley Jr #53 Garin Cecchini #56. Blake Swihart . #61. Mookie Betts #89. Matt Barnes
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Keith Law Top 100 up ... http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/10166140/byron-buxton-tops-2014-ranking-top-100-prospects-mlb Red Sox highlights ... (eligibility = not used up rookie eligibility yet, no Japan/Korea major experience, and no Abreu who is 27) #2. Xander Bogaerts #42. Henry Owens #51 Jackie Bradley Jr #53 Garin Cecchini #56. Blake Swihart . #61. Mookie Betts #89. Matt Barnes
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Oh certainly that is a fair call - the margins are pretty close. The Texas-Detroit trade is one of the great something for everybody deals - there were very strong reasons for both teams to do the deals, and both of the principal players have a lot to prove. Fielder in particular is interesting as he had a bad year, but at age 29 and batted ball stats that did not scream decline and moving into a good lefty ballpark, seems like a potential bounceback candidate. And yes, Detroit got shockingly little back for a high caliber #3 starter. And Oakland is not really behind much if at all. I also tend to skew pessimistic on the Sox generally, just how the pre 2004 18 years of fandom conditioned me.
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"If healthy" is a phrase that makes all of our speculation sort of moot, and what the division hinges on. The Red Sox 2013 I've maintained was not a triumph of a "new Red Sox way" so much as a spectacular vindication of the old way (the 2003-2011 one) which Cherington and Farrell had prominent roles in at various times. 2012 was just a massive perceived correction for a 2 year playoff drought which was driven mostly by lots, and lots, and lots of injuries. Between a few free agents doing well, and Farrell largely being able to field the team he wanted all season - we were able to be a wire to wire champ. If we have the same sort of injury luck as last year - and expected performance from new guys (as well as Farrell improving as a tactical manager, and he showed improvement over the season there) ... we will be a contender again ... I have us behind Detroit and Texas in the AL, but not by any huge margin. But a bout of poor injury luck can change things quickly, especially in the hypercompetitive AL East.
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2011 was interesting. What do you prefer the slow burn of 2011, having the rug pulled out from under you (buckner) or something in the middle (the Aaron Boone game), Personally, the season was becoming such torture that I was prepared for a mercy killing to some degree.
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I think there is a gap between disappointment and the darkest hours as a Red Sox fan. I have 300 games of the Butch Hobson managerial experience to sell you on the latter.
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Yeah, I thought it was Bruce Hurst too. Also, IIRC Barrett was the ALCS MVP. I felt awful - just a fiesta of poor managing by McNamara. If you actually look at the matchup, our win would have been a heck of an upset. Another thing, if you look at the two World Championships Boston sports lost out in 1986 ... the teams that won titles, the Bears and the Mets probably should go down as a couple of the biggest underachievers in the history of the sport. That the Mets only got two playoff appearances out of that core is kind of amazing.
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Papelbon's agent deserves some kind of award ... to get that contract JUST at the time the industry started to realize how stupid an idea that sort of contract is generally.
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The trivia answer is ... Phil Bradley ...
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The way I think about the ALCS in 1986 at this point though - it's one of this team's greatest achievements, though the season ended in disappointment. For a youngster like Thunder, I'd place it in the same house as the near comeback against Tampa in 2008, which is EXTREMELY underrated among proud moments for the franchise. The Red Sox in that series by the sixth inning of Game 5 were DEAD, throw them in a shallow grave by the interstate and drive away level dead. And to come off the mat and tease us like that. I wish they had won, but you have to be proud of them.
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1986 was a blast generally ... I remember so many random games. The game that was called due to fog in Cleveland which causd Oil Can Boyd to observe "that's what happens when you build a ballpark by the ocean". Virtually every start Roger made - he was pretty amazing then. Nothing beats a championship - and the three we have are great. But there is the buzz in 1986 and 1999 about Roger and Pedro starts which we have not had since, even with our amazing success. There really was a sense that each start you had a chance to really see something you'll tell your kids about ... the 2007 and 2013 teams have lacked that, although that is not a dig at the titles at all (in any way).
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He might - but as a 33 year old with a ton of miles on him (7 straight 200 inning seasons) and a sharp drop in strikeout rate ... lot of evidence he might have to reinvent himself as a more command/control guy. It is possible he could be an elite pitcher again, but the odds are not high. Yankees levered so much of their rotation success to him - and his drop in form is a huge issue within that framework.
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Well it was even outside of the SABR movement ... the Yanks were doing this in 1994 during the Paul O'Neill-Jimmy Key days. Even more recently, David Robertson would have been the best pitcher in the Red Sox bullpen every season since 2009 outside of 2013 Koji. As MVP noted, the reason modern Sox-Yanks games take forever is that neither team swings at balls. If anything, Girardi has too many anti-sabermetrics tendencies, running an offensive powerhouse (at least in prior years) at times like it's an NL team with overmanaging (too many bunts, willy nilly running). Aged pitching and the injuries have caused the Yankees problems ... in 2009 they placed a massive bet on Sabbathia, which largely worked until father time has started to kick in. Now the rotation is just not restaurant timber without a guy delivering prime-Sabbathia level horsepower. Sabbathia was a true #1 when they signed him, and is not anymore - and with it went their chances to be a dominant short series team. Add the injuries and it has been a decline.
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True - although any honest evaluation of the division showed 5 teams that were probably 10 games apart talentwise. You look at the rosters and not the hype and you could see Boston was not really that bad, and if only they could avoid the injury bug, they had a chance to be pretty good. Add some extreme right side of the expectation curve work from Lackey, Uehara and Victorino and suddenly, wow. If you seeded the 10 teams in the field when the playoffs started, the Red Sox were no worse than #2 ... and they beat the only legitimate choice for #1 on the way to the title. Sox were the first team since the 2009 Yanks that were the favorite entering the tournament to win the whole thing. Now I will acknowledge you could say the Tigers were the favorite - maybe ... but that's about it.