sk7326

Probably not - and Hart is really more of a 1B look than anything. But LF/1B are similar searches. If the Sox had a full time option in mind for LF they would not have had the Gomes fetish for so long. Now Hart is not an urgent priority but it would be irresponsible not to do the due diligence.

Brandon Phillips is not a good player anymore while Kinsler is good and theoretically available. Cano goes back to the Yanks - he is their best option still. Cardinals - lot of old history, especially before baseball went westward.

It's a perfect pickup if the terms are reasonable - starter upside and there is at least one job opening for somebody to snatch up in LF.

Generally you can ask a team take salary or send an actual player, but not both. Also, if you hate him that much - cut him. Money is already gone.

I'm sorry Brown University North Campus rankles so.

The odds of Ellsbury retaining CF skills are low - although how long that will take is a legitimate question. I actually think "can he stay leadoff" is a far lesser concern. The approach he showed this season would allow him to ride out some of the loss of speed. After all, he is not a slap hitter who leans on bunts or infield hits for production. It is possible he slips from a 50 SB guy to a 20 SB one as he gets older - but one forgets how long Kenny Lofton remained an effective top of the order bat. Obviously as an outfielder as you get older you rely more on your ability to get breaks and positioning (and hopefully coaches who understand it too), The near term valuation of Ellsbury is pretty rock solid - depending on how you factor in the injuries - it is the shape of the performance curve afterwards that is interesting. I like his chances of remaining an effective top of the order bat into his mid-30s ... I would not pay what he is asking for it though.

Well the Yankees have been an outlier for years (as have, to be fair, we). I think the "everybody else" is where the inflation has come from.

I think the Victorino deal was a bit of an overpay too - but it turned out very well thankfully. Comparing Ellsbury to Damon, you basically have a couple of things in Ellsbury's favor: 1. Ellsbury is 2 years younger than Damon was 2. Defensive measurement is light years ahead of where it was in 2005. There are more ways to quantify how Ellsbury is a better player than Johnny Damon (which he is) Now the second thing is a plus and minus ... a plus in that it is a large advantage, but it might not be one that lasts in 3 years. The injuries really affect Ellsbury's valuation ultimately.

With Ellsbury, I think the valuation comes down to basically one question. Is he injury prone, or just caught a couple of freaky breaks. If you can slough off the injuries, then he could be a pretty solid bet for the next 3 years at least as a quality CF, between the athleticism and the approach. But if a team doesn't want to, I get it. I don't think there are 30 HR seasons in his future - between "fluke rule" and the scouting explanation (he just started to feast on a pitch which teams don't throw him much anymore), but he is no slap hitter. The trick is trying to get teams to see his injury history his way.

LMAO ... let's put it this way, the Ryan Howard contract will be the flag bearer for ho-ho-horrendous deals for the next couple of decades

I'll take CYA for $500 - of course if he did not sign off on such a large commitment (even just staying - sign the best guy, which Crawford was in that class by some measures) that is quite derelict.

A really bad re-sign for Philly (a 2 year deal made some sense ... for somebody else, assuming the PED suspension and horrifying 2013 and age did not frighten you). A lot of "GM under pressure" in these moves. Once you realized he was not serious about dealing Lee, it is hard for a Philly fan to have a ton of hope for the near term.

Boras got 14 million a year for an innings soaker upper ... I don't think any of his clients are weeping. Both sides have interest in saying what they say. Generally in a battle of wits between Boras and an average baseball owner, I'd pick Boras. (I don't say GM because on some basic level, the contracts of this ilk are ownership level choices)

Gomes was in because Farrell liked him over Nava for whatever reason. I will refuse the appeal to authority ("Well we don't have the info the manager does" and the like) and say it was somewhat suboptimal, but not by a margin that killed anybody. Ellsbury I think we are just talking about some very large dollar figures - and if ownership is concerned about the luxury tax, which is their prerogative, that is a legitimate concern. The Red Sox are doing some due diligence, and they do have a little bit of leverage here. They have a substitute with potential, a fan base that will not punish them for the short term - winning a title will sell enough pink hats to assure that at last early - and a team without essentially no real holes. Yes, catcher is a problem since you'd get a lot of passed balls without one - but replacement level is so low that being below average there doesn't really hurt you that badly. The number of teams that need a guy like him AND can pay the price is not high - just matching teams with need, I'd put the Rangers at the top of the list, but yes the Yankees are always a factor. That said, some more imaginative options to me might be San Francisco or Anaheim (who is in that arms race with the Dodgers for SoCal moolah). Frankly if I were Pittsburgh, the marginal revenue calculations could favor a high dollar, short offer, although I'd be surprised if that ever happened. (they were a playoff team who got zero from their RF spot for most of the season, the marginal boost Ellsbury could give might actually create a business case).

Tim Hudson to Giants - strong signing after the Lincecum face plant. Hudson going into a division of hitter's graveyards bodes well.

Whether it be McDonald or somebody else, the utility infielder is not a huge deal ultimately. Heck, we might not even need to really deal with landing one in the offseason.

Phillies getting Ruiz is idiotic (for 3 years) ... the Red Sox terms made more sense even if you disagreed with the valuation a 1st rounder for 2 yrs of Beltran does not make sense to me. McCann (though I disagree) would be much more palatable for a QO price.

I think it's more likely they give him a chance at 1B than at C, at least as far as major reps goes.

I think it was the

Well the posting system (which actually resembles the soccer transfer system a bit) is in limbo - apparently NPB has been slow in responding. That said, the Japanese Players Union approved the hardest part, still letting one team (the posting winner) have exclusive negotiating rights. The snag is that some owners want the posting fee to be counted towards the luxury tax. I think things are OK on the Japanese end, though there is some grandstanding by Manfred.

AFL is skewed to offense - lot of time facing pitchers who have had some very serious workloads.

The dropoff from Napoli to Carp is uncertain, and could be large. Remember that Carp was entering this season seen largely as a AAAA sort of guy who was sent away by the Mariners, as offensively starved an org as it is. If you had an in house 1B/DH solution you would not be signing Kendrys Morales. The Red Sox got a lot of production out of him in a limited role - and there is considerable risk that he can actually cut it over 500 PAs or so. Obviously that is why you bring in a righty partner - but you need more than a guy to soak up the 60 or so games a lefty will be out there, you need somebody who could actually win a job. Middlebrooks in a hybrid role could be that guy - Corey Hart could be also.

Clearly we know where Boras' incentives are. But a guy doesn't retain clients by giving them poor counsel or work - and certainly absorbing the PR hit for his client is part of the gig. If Ellsbury wants to go somewhere, it's on him. I tend to be relatively unsentimental here - the Sox will have a quality CF either way.

Ellsbury wants a life changing deal - Boras is the best in the business at delivering one. If Ellsbury wants to take a little less to stay with Boston, it's his prerogative, but I do not expect him to order Boras to go in that direction.

Any change in the bullpen would be almost all "luck based" - that is a good philosophy for staffing the pen (guys who are on their way up, or former washouts like Manny Parra). That would not affect my view of the games won. You'd lose some offensive production in catcher, though defense might be better (enough to offset - I don't know), and increase ceiling and risk with the infield, though I am all for it. The outfield with Berry would weaken the product, especially with the considerable production risk in LF to begin with. But I'd have the same outlook I had for the team entering 2013 - 85ish wins, capability of a lot more with good health and some things going their way. Definitely not a team that'd ruin our summah (ruining the fall is another matter).