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sk7326

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Everything posted by sk7326

  1. sk7326
    Spring Training stats do not matter, full stop. All that matters is that the players stay healthy, and to see if any big changes have occured (velocity, bat speed and the like). Obviously these things sharpen up over the spring. The W/L do not matter at all, but how the players look do. Certainly Fred's notion on Spring Training records is silly. Hell, even the April and May games matter only to a point. Certainly a rotten start can kill you, but it's still about health and how you are playing ... and not to lose too much.
  2. sk7326
    If Vasquez is the defender he has shown coming up, he can be a .240/.310/.390 sort of guy and be an average big league starter. You look at Vasquez' minor league career and he has always had some good contact rates - enough that he should be able to provide some empty average at worst. The Red Sox did a good job rescuing Salty who was adrift as a prospect and evolved into a legitimately above average starter. Lavarnway is a terrible receiver who also stopped being a good hitter. That means in the final analysis, he is not a real starter. Swihart is the best long term prospect, but Vasquez might still be a guy with a starter's ceiling. Having legitimate depth in the sport's most deserted position is kind of amazing.
  3. sk7326
    His potential is exciting. Have to give him a run at SS. Even if he is blocked when it is time for him to come up, I could see him as our Ben Zobrist, a super mega-utility guy if he continues his developmental leaps.
  4. sk7326
    Positionally, the only guy who is not projected to be here I want to see is Vasquez. I think if he can show any sort of big league hitting ability - and his minor league contact rates show some optimism here - I'd think very seriously of starting him if Pierzienski is as mediocre as I expect him to be. Pitching wise, I don't want to see ANY of the kids up here starting since that means that one of our Top 5 guys is hurt or ineffective. But I am more bullish on Barnes than Webster for big league impact. I'd love for them to just tell Webster to forget about starting and convert him into a multi-inning bullpen weapon. His stuff could seriously play up in that role - but his flaws (command, lack of secondary pitches) look really bad in the rotation.
  5. sk7326
    I don't know if it's veteran respect so much as making sure the kids can handle the jobs. Being able to handle the defense at SS is something that XB is still working - and I could see the Sox wanting to keeping him out of the pressure of a run scoring spot in the order as he focuses on his defensive game. I expect that your lineup is a good April lineup - that said, if Bradley shows the progress he has shown at every level so far, he'll be at the top of the order by June. He just needs to focus less on the power game and stick to getting on base and letting the power numbers take care of themselves. (he has double figures-ish HR power, but should not be obsessed with 15-20 jacks or anything like that)
  6. sk7326
    Well, years and dollars are variable. Drew will eventually decide whether he wants to play baseball this season based on the given market. The Mets still makes the most sense by far. In the Bronx he'd have to play 3B for a year - where his bat doesn't really play. For the Mets, it has been a matter of the right price. They have a job opening, Drew will not cost them much pick-wise and he is an extremely valuable trade asset. If MLB did sign and trades the way that the NBA does - Drew would have had a much larger market.
  7. sk7326
    He was not going to make an impact on this team. At the same time, he was going to be useful as A) insurance and a trade asset. I think folks seriously undervalued how useful a guy on a 1 year 12 million hitch would have been to trade by the end of spring training. For what he is (a guy with swing and miss stuff who was very durable and had some bad homerun luck) he had some industry value. I'd rather pay Dempster $12M and hope than Ervin Santana $60 million and hope a little less.
  8. sk7326
    Personally, I think a title does buy you some time ... and the playoffs are such crapshoots that repeating, even with a better team, is tough. Hell, Baltimore was a lot better than they were in 2012 and missed the playoffs. Life happens. But a lot of fans lack perspective. The Sox fans deserve a contender for the prices they pay (or at least the aggressive pursuit therein). But it takes so much luck and health to win a title that you have to be reasonable. In 2008, Tampa was the best team in baseball - I am not sure (and I am not saying you agree with the outmanaging) how much Maddon over Francona mattered (if any). Hell, the Red Sox forcing that 7th game was remarkable the way that series went.
  9. sk7326
    That Drew has not signed "yet" is not indicative of Boras' work certainly. Letting guys hang until a market gap shows up has long been a Boras staple. There is a lot of media posturing here, and owners telling the Gammons of the world that they have all sorts of contingency options. But usually, you wait and something will pop up, especially at a premium position.
  10. sk7326
    No. When you charge the prices the Sox charge its public, there is no house money. The title buys some currency - but not a position where they are not trying to put the best product on the field to win. The fans deserve that. If they want young players to develop on the job, it's because they deserve that consideration. If the Red Sox miss the playoffs, the fans will (and should) be disappointed. The Nation should expect their team to contend, young players or not, and when there is a chance to make a deadline deal - to go ahead and do so. (not be stupid of course, but not hoard prospect inventory either)
  11. sk7326
    Solid choice. I have lived through both road uniforms (in 1986 it was also navy and gray) ... these are better.
  12. sk7326
    Astros will have the worst record in baseball. The Brewers are the worst team in baseball. Houston's work on the farm and whatnot (helps to have the former Cardinals scouting director as GM and all of those high picks) means that there is a corner to be turned. Brewers are in the Hobson Red Sox sort of hell of being both bad, and barren. Dodgers are the team on paper - but the DBacks and Giants both have legitimate reasons to dream here. Granted, the Giants are paying a barely #4 starter $18M a year as a thank-you card.
  13. sk7326
    Schiling is a bit of a pompous blowhard. But the bloody sock can never be taken away.
  14. sk7326
    Oh I am not crying poor for them - or for anyone else ... what you can say about Tampa applies to the Yankees and Sox too. Business is doing great. Tampa and Pittsburgh are doing fine due to stuff that happened pre-rejiggered CBA (and a LOT of high draft picks). But you look at Kansas City - the system by lowering draft slot amounts and international pool money basically penalizes a rebuilding team for making progress. Rebuilding is only rebuilding if you are Houston apparently. (and they have taken good advantage of this so far) There has to be welfare for organizations since MLB is a cartel that needs its 30 franchises to be in some form of good shape. And MLB has done a nice job with it so far. But the current rules create a penalty for doing things well. Basically it was redone for true cheapskates like Reinsdorf to not look bad next to Tampa and Oakland.
  15. sk7326
    I do also have to second basically every Clemens start in 1986 and Pedro from 1998-2000. The titles are the best - I won't trade those in - but those teams did not have the sort of transcendent individual awesomeness that Pedro gave us for instance in his very best. This last decade has been marked by probably the most important Red Sox player ever (Ortiz) and the prime of a truly great player (Pedroia). Pedroia is great in a very fulfilling, Cal Ripken sort of way. But the buzz of a Pedro start, that was something super duper special. His 17 strikeout game against the Yankees is still the best game I've ever seen pitched.
  16. sk7326
    More from the Keith Law prospects package, from the guys who just missed the Top 100 http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/10383592/allen-webster-dj-peterson-prospects-just-missed-top-100-mlb
  17. sk7326
    I can see that - although taking flak from fans (instead of his clients, say) is part of what he does well. Baseball owners, and I am old enough to have lived through proven owner collusion and an unfair labor practices charge, has a long rich history of trying to prevent players from being compensated. It's still pretty true - though the pie is much, much, much larger now. I do agree with Boras pretty strongly on the draft - but whatever.
  18. sk7326
    Best in the biz, though a mixed bag this winter. Only people he rankles are the Judge Smailses - which is a group that could use it.
  19. sk7326
    The current system? Aside from the millstone for free agents (and good ones, too) - it also removes tools for the smaller market teams to improve themselves. It's a worse draft pick for one thing. Allow trading picks and letting the market set itself is more sustainable. In general one of the things the last CBA negotiation did was take tools away from the Tampas of the world to stay competitive, between reducing compensation for free agent losses as well as restricting amateur bonuses. Drew made a mistake seemingly by not taking the qualifying offer - but in 2014 there is no reason to tie free agency and the draft - and there is less reason to not let draft picks be part of trade discussions.
  20. sk7326
    Current system will definitely be a key issue with the next CBA negotiation - I think getting the system abolished entirely paired with allowing trading of draft picks would solve all of the issues at the same time in a much clearer manner.
  21. sk7326
    It's impossible to pick them a month from now too. And when the playoff seeds are determined as well. I'd put the Tigers and Cards as the favorites in each league. (granted the former includes some of my general resistance to picking the Sox, just a tic I have as a fan)
  22. sk7326
    True - although when you think about the "curse", it was a curse because the Red Sox since 1967 have largely been good. There is no "curse of the Clippers" for instance. They have just been a mostly incompetent NBA franchise. And honestly, the Cubs have for the most part been pretty bad since 1908. Winning a world series, let alone 3 changed a lot of my perspective too. But I would definitely choose a run of 1986s (or put another way, the last 9-10 years for the Patriots) over any run of Butch Hobson years, even if they end with a ruined summah.
  23. sk7326
    I tend to think of 2003 and 2004 together ... it helps make peace with 2003, because from a story arc it made 2004 exponentially sweeter. The shame in 2003 is that we would have clobbered Florida. Remember we did play them in interleague, and ended up averaging 15 runs a game (including a 13 run first inning in a 25-8 win). Small sample sizes of course - but we could hit their pitching. For the Yankees it was a much tougher matchup - we matched up better with Florida.
  24. sk7326
    Coming back from 7 runs down, 7 outs left in the season against Tampa in 2008. The Hendu homerun in 1986. The 24 straight wins of Morgan Magic. Let's face it - fans can whine about the non-wins, but Sox have been one of the lucky franchises since 1967. Lot of heartbreak, but a lot of winning too.
  25. sk7326
    I think in 2011 the teams were also figuring out how to portfolio manage in the new slotting system, the balance of easy signs with risky upside. Merrero had an awful senior year but a terrific junior year. He went to a program with a really strong history of producing pros - including of course the Sun Devils' former undersized shortstop. I think they saw some projection, or at least a quick path to the bigs - they got neither. It's ok - 24th pick has a fairly low ROI to begin with. The draft SEEMS like a roll of the dice, and in baseball the "sure thing rate" is lower than other sports. But the top of the draft is still a very good predictor of pro success. Note how Tampa's system took off as they drafted high year after year, and the rankings have slipped as guys have graduated as well as they have stopped picking at #1. Nobody will bat 1.000, but some teams draft better than others and it matters.
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