sk7326

Not a fatso, but still a 1B/LF type. Lot of those guys if they deteriorate it moves quickly.

His comp in these areas is Bernie Williams really - and you could do a whole lot worse than that.

Relax - 13 games, fundamentals have been ok. The injuries are a bigger concern than any of the hyperventilating that is being done here. Bradley's power stats are not great, but .273/.368 is a slash line we will be very happy with. Bradley has plenty of speed, but he is a poor base stealer - but that's among the more dispensable baseball skills. Part of being a good organization is trusting your evaluations. Overreacting to spring results is generally poor business.

Less != Bubkus

Pujols not the sort of commodity which would be a strong future bet (shoddy athleticism, not much to go on besides his . A pitcher who never gets hurt and can spin 200 IP or so of #1/2 level pitching (with a couple of back end years of #4 more likely) is pretty valuable, and the industry has placed a tremendous premium on being able to pitch. With such a bullpen driven game, guys you don't need to worry about have value.

The 33 games vs 145 argument is silly, and neglects how much more direct the pitcher's impact is during the innings he pitches. I don't think the Lester decision is cut and dried, but the industry is paying for durability - and Lester has that. The offer the Sox made, if the numbers are accurate, won't get it done. Lester has said the right things - so we'll see what happens.

Sizemore (at least while waiting for his next catastrophic injury) - Bradley - Victorino left to right is their best outfield. Bradley is so gifted defensively that we can wait for his offense to catch up (if we have to).

It means Cherington needed guys in case starters got hurt. Roberts and Herrera are about as good as you can expect from "emergency filler". If they did not solve 3B and if Pedroia is gone for any serious length of time, we were gonna be in trouble anyway.

If I were Lester, I wouldn't either. I tend to think the deal might coalesce around 5+1 option or something. I don't like giving 5 year deals to pitchers, but if I HAD to do it (and given how few true reliable 200 IP sorts there are, I am not naive) - Lester is the sort of guy I do it for. Never gets hurt, very consistent - maybe not a "#1" in that Kershaw or 2009 Sabbathia sort of way, but can certainly touch that peak here and there. To me, he is almost a lock for those 1000 aforementioned IP, and at a level that we can live with even as his decline phase starts. It'd be a hard decision if I were running the Pirates - but fortunately this is the Sawx we are dealing with.

If you take Lester at his word, he is willing to take a discount. But what is a discount? A $16-$18M deal would be well, well below the market for a quality innings eating starter. I think the 25M AAV might be on the high side, but not by much. Actually, for that matter - I am pretty sure the price is not what is being haggled over. I suspect the two sides are in the same AAV ballpark. We know what the comps are, and we know that the Red Sox play in the deep end of the revenue and payroll pools, and we know the fans and media would (totally correctly) pillory them for pinching pennies. The question is years, both the number and the guarantee. I would not want to go 5 years on any pitcher. But if you have the resources the Sox have, and if you want to win an auction - it helps to assess the worst case result and see if you can live with it within the big picture. For me, Lester's worst case in the next 5 years basically ends up being 2014 Jake Peavy, perhaps a bit less. Is that player worth $24 million in the 2019 salary universe? Probably not - but it would not actually be that much of an overpay if Lester maintains his flawless mechanics and strong track record of durability. If the Red Sox could get 1000 innings of (on average) 2013 Regular Season Jon Lester production over 5 years, 24M AAV would actually be quite reasonable. I think if there is a real sticking point, it is years - either years the Red Sox don't want to give, or years the Red Sox want to put options on. For me, if I were Cherington, something resembling the Ortiz extension in terms (but longer) would make sense. 4 years, 5th year a vesting option, 6th year a pure team option.

NESN is on FIOS here in DC. It's not as lucrative I suspect - but nobody's starving. The Red Sox have a small ballpark, but a market with a near unlimited itch to pay - it's still quite the mint. If the Red Sox were in a different division they would still spend a lot. And well they should - given how they gouge the Nation the fans have every right to expect that. If JH is robbing the Sawx to pay Liverpool, yeah that is a problem. But yes the arms race with NY does hold them extra accountable. The trend of relying on their farm system is only because they have a potential MVP candidate there - there is less youth on the roster than you think. Really the trend with this team is more or less unchanged from the Theo days (pre-2011 if you want to be picky maybe), it just looks better with a World Title.

All it cost was money - relievers are like disposable diapers. The Cards have changed closers like women change shoes and it has not impacted them. Bottom line, if the starters are holding their end up, this is a nonissue.

It would have been neat - but he was a starter then. It took a while for teams to start identifying what he did best. And even now, the Red Sox have gotten a phenomenal amount of luck given how serious the durability concerns where when they signed him.

It seems that way, but Tampa has had a solid 6 year run - which is about as good as any team can hope for in the free agency era. The Rays and A's cannot make some of the decisions the Red Sox can, or they have to think harder. At the same time, the luxury tax and revenue sharing system gave them the tools to manage their franchise. The teams have identified market inefficiencies - they were on the forefront of advanced defensive evaluation. They have to take chances on injured relievers, but they also figured out that all relievers are chances - so in a way who cares. The Red Sox have figured this out. You treat relievers like NFL running backs, or disposable diapers - just the best way to handle them. I've noted, removing the compensation structure for free agency helps everybody - and if you just let teams trade draft picks, the compensation would take care of itself.

I think you have to consider it, but given the risk for pitching across the board, being able to have sure things in slots is extremely valuable. I think if Owens were ready - you MIGHT let Lester go, but the team would still want some veteran filler because it is hard to get through the marathon without some real horses. For an Owens sort (these days) we know the kid would be on some sort of limit, like 150-175 innings. I think the existence of those young starters is what has made guys like Lester premium assets. When you are watching the workloads of your kids, it is hard to contend while taxing your bullpen - and giving too many innings to your soft 5th-6th inning underbellies of your pitching staff - without having guys who do not have to be babysat.

The price of innings is very highly regarded by the industry. If you can churn out 200 IP at a #3 starter or better level, that's really really hard to find. I am always hesitant to pay for decline as rjortiz notes - but if you need to accept a couple of years of #4 starter level production, I'd rather do it with a guy without an injury history, a guy with sound mechanics and a guy I trust to be able to crank out 30 starts a year. Lester does hit all of those. Also, if you lock him in at a rate now, with the inflation of salaries in general and the high value of durable pitching - even the decline years aren't really that overvalued. It's something a team like the Red Sox can do though, and I don't see a huge reason to play hardball.

5) Not precisely. The revenue sharing could be better, but the competitive balance is there now. There is enough sharing for every franchise to build a team that can make decisions to help itself. Indeed, the problem now is that the last CBA made things harder to ensure competitive balance. Tampa and Oakland cracked the puzzle - the teams that haven't are not prevented by money. 4) Well, with the rules for true free agency, there is a winner's curse for a big free agent i.e. you pay a premium price to win an auction and you are buying decline years often to do so. Now smart teams are proactive, like Tampa is - offering to buy the players arb years at a premium in exchange for a year or two of free agency. For the player there is value there. It is unrealistic to expect Pedroia deals or demand them from players. 3) The rich teams (including us) have the advantages you mention. ALSO, the qualifying offer structure helps us too. After all, the draft pick cost goes DOWN the more qualified FAs you sign. If the Yankees blow their first round pick for McCann, a 2nd round pick for Ellsbury is a steal. The salary cap is just a transfer of wealth. I think the luxury tax-revenue sharing combo has worked for baseball and provided competitive balance in a way that other sports have not really achieved. The NFL feels wide open, but that is more a result of a 16 game season than anything else. There is still little turnover at the top. If you want competitive balance, you'd get rid of the salary caps on rookie bonuses (it is the one place where the Tampas and Pittsburghs were getting a ton of bang) and draft pick compensation for free agents and just allow the trading of draft picks.

He enjoys his life in Boston. Enough to be compensated like AJ Burnett? No.

It is possible. It's also possible that he was the only guy with options to create a roster spot with Breslow's return. I wouldn't read a whole lot into this. Somebody had to go down - there was no other logical candidate.

8 games ... breathe ... problem has been that the offense has not scored as much as a team which is putting baserunners on like the Sox are should be. That will correct itself.

A lot of bad luck so far. The on-base percentage is good, pitching staff leads the league in fWAR. (the key stats, strikeouts, walks, homeruns - all are doing ok so far). Defense has dropped off quite a bit so far, but going from Ellsbury to Sizemore in CF will do that. But the fundamentals are largely pretty strong - results will catch up.

We have played 8 games ... breathe ...

Rays did not have to do a whole lot. If Archer just develops the way his first year portended, if their defense is still strong. The separation between us and them was not huge to begin with. I don't call them frontrunners, but co-favorites with us? No doubt.

The Dodgers live in a different salary world - but they paid that for the best pitching product in the sport. Kershaw's age and skill level combined made it a sound, albeit risky idea. I expect the Lester deal to get done. The key to me - and my idle guess on the tension - is what the Red Sox are going to do to cover decline risk. The Red Sox like putting vesting options and team options on the back end of these deals (I would too). I imagine Lester, who has proven to be one of the league's most durable starters, is not wild about having "not precisely" guaranteed years on the back of a deal (and I would not be wild about it either). So if they can come to some sort of understanding on that structure (say, 5 years with a vesting 6th) that might be all there is to it.

AJ is a little better than replacement level. He is a downgrade from Salty - but a better contract given the Red Sox needs. I think there is a solid chance Vasquez ends up here if he can put together a solid offensive season at Pawtucket. There is no way a guy of AJ's caliber is going to block a guy of Vasquez' potential. A guy with Vasquez' glove, even if his bat is empty calories - is good enough to be an average starter. I don't think the issue with AJ is his non-taking approach. It is that combined with not being especially good defensively and a bit of a locker room lawyer in past stops. The calling a game thing can be replaced - slack picked up by coaches as needed. The Sox staff is good.