sk7326
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Everything posted by sk7326
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Well 2012 and 2014 were last place finishes that were shaped very differently. 2012 was a ton of injuries combined with a trade which stripped the team to its studs. They fielded a AAA team the last two months of that season. You look at how little their best players actually played in 2012. You could see - well, not a wire to wire best team in baseball in 2013 - but it was not difficult to see the Red Sox bouncing back into playoff contention in 2013. The Sox got an unforeseen season from Victorino and Uehara, but the other guys were a matter of being healthy. 2014 was a dusting of injury and heaping spoonfuls of underperformance up and down the roster, and the moves the Red Sox made left their rotation in tatters. The underperformance to me is largely self-correcting (I don't think any of the cases are permanent outside of Middlebrooks, which the Sandoval signing addresses) but there are serious holes in the rotation as of now which there weren't really entering 2013.
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What Does the Acquisition of Rusney Castillo mean for Bradley?
sk7326 replied to a700hitter's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
That's my guess. Betts is one of the team's 3 best OFs and despite the fanfare surrounding Castillo - Betts was ahead of him as of the end of 2014 (understandably given how little baseball Castillo has played recently) and has a 5 year age advantage (and the projection that comes with it). Castillo's arm is not great but better than Betts' too, and it's not like Fenway RF does not require range. -
What Does the Acquisition of Rusney Castillo mean for Bradley?
sk7326 replied to a700hitter's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Oh, industrywide I am not sure it is quite that low. After all, the man has a major league skill, and one he does better than just about any person alive. That alone along with his age (not as young as you'd like but still not peak) should have him on many big league radars. -
Nava has gotten better but what I will note is that UZR has tended to be fooled by playing LF at Fenway (at least in what I've seen in the past). (or other odd shaped zones)
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I do agree there, ownership wanted to move him. I do wonder what is going on in TB. Their brain trust left, they moved their best starter. I am not sure if their window of opportunity has passed, but I do get a sense that internally that sentiment might be there.
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What Does the Acquisition of Rusney Castillo mean for Bradley?
sk7326 replied to a700hitter's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Certainly the Red Sox signed him to be a pillar of the OF, whether it be in CF or RF. What is also true is that Bradley as a C/C- hitter combined with his glove is a legitimate starter for somebody. A B/B- hitter with his glove is a fringy All-Star. He was an F last season - and the question is how much of that is legitimately fixable. Given how much of his failings were driven by trying to impersonate Mike Napoli instead of just focusing on singles, adequate offensive production is not that far away. If I were a team with an opening at CF, I would absolutely throw a handful of magic beans at the Red Sox and see if I could land Bradley. -
Smyly had a league average FIP last season (maybe a shade better) - he is a solid guy although hard to say how projectable (compared to say, Archer). Austin Jackson is a bit of a reclamation project. I have a hard time thinking they got the upside you'd want to get from dealing a guy of Price's level.
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In the Cards case with Heyward - I see things the Cards way. Heyward is both a sensible rental and a huge upside play. (a few doable offensive adjustments from being a legitimate MVP candidate) In the case of a rental the Sox can get, it'd be much much harder to justify.
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I tend to agree with you ... BUT ... if after the dust settles Ramirez and Betts are entrenched in two outfield spots ... a two headed RF with Nava and Castillo or Victorino would be an effective outcome. As an aside, I also think Castillo is very much trade bait because if a team believes he can be a starting CF this season - that contract is quite favorable.
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True to a degree, but still a lot of projection left in him. He is established somewhat. I mean, he has been good, but the Cards unforgiveable mothballed him the 2013 playoffs (not unforgiveable that they shut him down, but that they burned a roster spot to do so) and have been slow to take the training wheels off. Now, what is the equivalent of these two packages for a year of Cueto or Zimmermann. Is it Betts and XB, or one of the two? Or something less? i don't know. I'd think Betts or Bogaerts + something less (like a toolsy A'er) might be your ceiling.
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His platoon split limits him. He figures prominently among "switch hitters who frankly should stop". That said, I like him a lot as a platoon partner. Not sure the room is there here without them moving one of their many, many righties.
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It's why I hate this question "should the Red Sox move Napoli". He is one of the more desirable properties they have contractually. So he could fetch a solid return - more than other guys. And Allen Craig (whose value frankly needs to be rebuilt) is best moved to 1B right now. So the math works out. But the team does not need to get rid of Napoli nor should they without a good returrn.
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I am sure the Reds think that. The relevant comps I think are: Price - the Rays got a mid-upper rotation young starter for 2 years of a true ace Heyward - the Braves got two premium pitching prospects for 1 year of a good outfielder (with elite potential) for a team that is basically one outfielder away
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Zimmermann is a better pitcher, but you'd only be getting a year of him. The Nats might also just decided to say screw it - we're the best team in the NL, we should maximize our shots at the big prize.
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Nava is good for what he is. He and Holt could be dealt not because they are bad but because they can free up a logjam and get something of value coming back. But if Nava is our fourth OF, that is not bad.
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It is hard to justify not playing your 3 best outfielders. Betts by the end of the season was.
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His OPS has declined from his one monster year - that is a problem. But he also has been very consistent since. The raw power is there, but his approach limits it some. (the focus on contact and using the opposite field, think of a version of stuff people said about Wade Boggs and Ichiro at various times) I do think the move is solid from a baseball perspective. I do not love the deal, but if you are going to do this, doing in on a 28 year old with some projection left (due to being a good athlete and exceptional contact skills) is the sort of thing which makes sense. It is tempting to look at a body like his and come to a conclusion about him being at 1B in a couple of years - but his actual athleticism belies that. (http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/49972/third-baseman-pablo-sandoval-is-giants-most-valuable-defender)
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It is quite a testament to the baseball people who have worked under this ownership. Because you are right, yet this team has managed to win a ton and basically be the most successful franchise in the game over that time. (the Cards have lacked the bad seasons, but 1 fewer title) The talent evaluators have remained excellent. For most of this ownership's tour (2004-2011) the on-field coaching staff was elite. Now it is not as good, although I certainly don't put the entirety of 2014 on their shoulders. It is a weird frustrating part of an ownership that has been phenomenal in many important areas.
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I think the more interesting question regarding this is who is actually driving? We know Cherington has had a lot of experience in org development, and the scouting is top notch. This franchise has drafted well year after year. I think ownership priorities shift very violently - and Cherington and the baseball working stiffs are left to make the best of it baseball-wise. That is a flaw in the machinery. I think at times the dynamic in the front office is more or less like what we saw in the Gonzalez trade. Ownership made the dump with the Dodgers, and it was up to Cherington's folks to swoop in and identify prospects to make it a tractable (in fact, quite good by salary dump standards) baseball deal. I am not trying to exempt him from accountability or scrutiny, but I do wonder how empowered he is at times. (or whether the level of empowerment has been consistent, if that makes sense)
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I forget where the literature is - but your best place to put your best hitter is 2nd ... balancing number of plate appearances with RBI opportunities. Now most lineups do not act that way. Right now the way I look at the "Top 13" C: Vasquez 1B: Napoli 2B: Pedroia 3B: Sandoval SS: Bogaerts LF: Ramirez CF: Betts RF: Castillo DH: Ortiz OF: Nava (platoon value - still a solid on-base dude) OF: Victorino IF: Holt (plays a lot of positions) C: (Somebody) Clearly there is a squeeze for Cespedes and Craig here. That will need to be resolved. Now theoretically they can only carry 11 pitchers, but it is not how staffs work in 2014-15, and I doubt Farrell will do differently early in the season. Given this, a starting lineup: CF: Betts LF: Ramirez 2B: Pedroa DH: Ortiz 1B: Napoli 3B: Sandoval SS: Bogaerts RF: Castillo C: Vasquez
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Youk and Pedroia fall in that time frame. So did Lester and Buchholz (who has fallen on his face as a #1, but not as a viable starter). Some misses, lot of hits. And many that were valuable trade assets, which has to count. There are real questions as to whether this staff is up to dealing with young regulars - that is legitimate. At the same time, Bogaerts' falling on his face is a pretty phenomenal overreaction when considering how Pedroia and Iglesias did in extended trial runs at first. Now I wish Bogaerts had a Trout season so we could (correctly) dream of Hall of Fame things for him. Alas, that did not happen. However, he has hung in at the big league level at an age when most of his buddies are in AA - that is an overwhelmingly positive sign. The odds are still very good that he will have a strong career playing baseball for a living.
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True about Bradley. Only reason you'd say that about Middlebrooks was because it was a serious case of selling low. Hard to expect him to actually get LESS valuable than he was in 2013.
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We'll see how it goes - in many of the essential ways it is the same front office it has been for the past decade, which has been a pretty good one. There will be upgrades in pitching. Whether it is Lester or something via trade (Latos, Cueto, Zimmermann?) or both. But fixing two positions where they got essentially zippo last season was essential.
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Would be nice to have Beltre - although from the "things that we did not anticipate" area which was referred to earlier here. The Sox letting Beltre walk was defensible given the strategy - but Youk's body falling to pieces so quickly put a blowtorch to much of the plan.
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The Sandoval contract is ok too - consistency is there, the youngest premium FA available (so there is at least improvement possible). Do I wish he hit more homers? A bit, although some of that is choice. He could be a Monster-hitting machine.