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sk7326

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Everything posted by sk7326

  1. sk7326
    It's both pitching in big parks with superb defensive teams - the Yankees are neither. He would improve them - but by more of an "innings eater" standard than a star one.
  2. sk7326
    Shortstops inevitably move somewhere else - the shortstop angle is less about that than getting great athletes and SS/CF is your first place to look there.
  3. sk7326
    If the market is skeptical about his ability to pitch outside of great environments - going to the league's worst ballpark for righty flyball pitchers could be an issue.
  4. sk7326
    Oh I think that the org does too - but maybe not the presences available at this second.
  5. sk7326
    I wouldn't. BUT it's fairly close. You are getting 3 years of Hamels which is much different than the other guys who seem more like rentals. That said, the Phillies should (and are) driving a hard bargain because of the control that comes with landing him.
  6. sk7326
    My theory - the market does not think he can pitch outside of ideal pitching environments. (yes, the AL East is a bear, but Tampa and Kansas City are two of the best run prevention outfits of recent years)
  7. sk7326
    I think the "Age 33, who has spent the majority of his career in favorable run prevention environments (parks and defenses)" excuse is sufficient to not look at him. But at this second, the Sox are one of the few teams in a good position to make a move if they wanted. They have the money and it would only cost them their 3rd rounder. I'd go up to him, offer him 1/25 (maybe with an option) and point out "nobody seems to think you can pitch outside of pitcher's heavens. Show them they're wrong."
  8. sk7326
    A lot of the plan is on the kids themselves - right now Rodriguez is not ready for the bigs - not if the fastball command is an issue. But he could shock them and make a leap. One place for tea leaves to be read is where the kids are starting. In most orgs these days, if the kids are starting at AAA, that means they are in the major league plan potentially in a significant way. I expect Owens to be up at some point - although clearly the workload will be managed very vigilantly.
  9. sk7326
    I would at this point - considering that Shields is still out there and how little the draft compensation is for Boston - offer Shields 2/50and see what happens. Now he might very well sign soon - maybe the length of time Scherzer was out there was a factor - but worth a look.
  10. sk7326
    Oh he could be the #1 on a contender - he was. Now he's not Kershaw or King Felix, but that is also all but a handful of pitchers. I blanched at giving him 6 years but a guy with a good delivery, no arm trouble and a good approach, he was a pretty good bet to hold value for the majority of the deal. The Red Sox were dogmatic about their valuation - despite it flying in the face of market realities. That's fine - but the result is what it is. His price was fair given his past, the low likeliness of being hurt, and just how everybody is swimming in money.
  11. sk7326
    Oh I don't know. Porcello is a #3 sort with a #1/#2 upside (and only 26 so there is still improvement in him). Miley is a #3 sort with a #2 upside he has reached previously. Buchholz we know about. Masterson is a large risk - since unlike the other three he was genuinely irredeemably terrible. (and without the flashes Buchholz showed last season in spots) But even with Masterson, if he is healthy he is still innings filler - and if he has to be banished to the bullpen, he can be very good there. If there were franchises who had a 1998 Montreal Expos situation, I'd be more fired up about not landing a sexier pitcher in the offseason. But when you look at the Cubs and Padres - two bad teams last year - genuinely loading up to make a run this year (and the Marlins too!) and you see the effect the 2nd wild card has had. There will be ways to upgrade the rotation (like Lackey becoming suddenly available to Saint Louis) but we'll have to let the season unfold.
  12. sk7326
    You are doubtlessly right in isolation - but sometimes you have to win in an auction situation. I think with the longer deals, you have to evaluate what the "low point" is. You will be overpaying for it, but if you can live with it - and get a lot of value early, it can be a fair investment. In isolation, the Angels extending Mike Trout for 10 million years seems silly - but in context they are (while risking injury clearly) actually probably underpaying if anything.
  13. sk7326
    It has ...there is some luck involved. I'd expect the Sox to keep cycling through arms on that front. The only regret I had about dealing Webster and De La Rosa was the conversion possibility. That said they converted them into a durable starter, so hey.
  14. sk7326
    i appreciate the concern, but the Red Sox in 2013 were on their FOURTH choice for closer before they hit the winner. Mujica is ok as a backup plan, but so could other guys ... a lot of the 9th inning job is just doing it. It's not magic.
  15. sk7326
    We don't know what the bullpen will end up looking like - but psst ... we didn't know it in 2013 either and it went well
  16. sk7326
    I know - but the bullpen is still best built by throwing a ton of arms at it. Some will work - others just move on. Ogando is the sort of arm to at least give a run at. Now in isolation I could say they overpaid Uehara by resigning him - but that's not really true. It's not a number that prevents them from doing anything - and it's still a short hitch.
  17. sk7326
    For building a bullpen - it is the best way
  18. sk7326
    Good, cheap lottery ticket
  19. sk7326
    He seems to appreciate probability more than upside - which is fine but runs counter to the industry. I appreciate probability too - but (and this is where the Red Sox being a high payroll team matters) a team like Boston only needs its farm system to produce its future studs. (and maybe a lower level for starting pitcher but you get the idea) There are plenty of other avenues available to find the middle class guys which does not blow up their budget. Personally, Devers starting full season ball as an 18 year old is the most tantalizing of the possibilities, and that is not a dig at all at Margot who has been nearly as accomplished. More than anything - that the Red Sox themselves feel these guys can handle aggressive promotion and challenge says a ton.
  20. sk7326
    Owens ETA could be sooner - he's starting the year in AAA after all. But I don't think the org sees him as a taxi squad guy ... whenever he comes up, he ain't going back. The other guys (and Wright is there too) are much more "shuttle-worthy".
  21. sk7326
    From what I have read and seen (the latter more with Barnes) - Rodriguez has the most star potential. He is also the furthest away - fastball command, development of a second pitch, that sort of thing. But he also hung in at AA (the real weeding ground for prospects) at a young age. Johnson is probably the most polished guy in the org - but a meh fastball and no wipeout off speed pitch. But on feel and polish he can probably make some starts for the big club without embarassing anybody. Barnes has the polish expected from a college guy, but also the limited ceiling. But Barnes of the guys they ran out last year at the end, was (granted in relief mostly) the most impressive stuff outside of De La Rosa. I don't think Ranaudo ever showed that he had anything to get big leaguers out - let alone three times through a batting order. Webster will always be a tease because of his raw stuff but the feel has been late in coming.
  22. sk7326
    Whatever depth you were counting on with De La Rosa, Ranaudo and Webster is merely replaced by Barnes, Johnson and Owens and (probably not) Rodriguez.
  23. sk7326
    Another view of it. You can get the pitcher you want in two ways (outside of development which is a nonissue right now). You can sign it or trade for it. Right now, the sign supply is essentially nil with Lester and Scherzer gone (with very real questions about the latter given the salary that won that auction). So next is the trade supply - but in 2015 baseball that is hard to do in this environment. 1. With the economics, almost no team is desperately poor in a way that forces them to clear payroll 2. With the additional wild card, almost every team can dream of a Royals-like run. The awful truth needs a couple of months to reveal itself. Giving up the game and saying that we have to get the starter for April now now now is a recipe for a massive overvaluatiion.
  24. sk7326
    I agree there has to be some projection. But the calculated bet is that between beating up on bad pitchers and hanging against the rest, there are 85 wins at least. The issue you bring up I think is much more significant in October. This goes to one of the quirks of baseball - the club that can succeed in a marathon and the club that can win the tournament require much different qualities.
  25. sk7326
    Very simple - in the era of hyperspecialization, the 9th inning guy matters somewhat. HOWEVER, the last 4 world champs found their closer during the season ... Tampa's ability to create closers from other team's garbage is well documented. There is no reason to ever give a Papelbon deal to anybody, even Craig Kimbrel or Aroldys Chapman.
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