sk7326

I am not sure a guy who might not be a starting middle infielder is a centerpiece to get a young starting pitcher.

He swings at everything yes, but he also makes contact with everything too. That fans fall out of love with their own guys is not an indicator of anything one way or the other. His contract will come from being a good player at a very thin position industrywide and being the youngest of the top free agents to hit the market. I'd look at Beltre first too. Dave Cameron wrote neatly about this ... players (like any other employee) are bargains early and albatrosses late (ALL OF THEM). So the real question is not whether Sandoval will be worth it in 6 years (he won't) - but whether the overall deal produces what the Sawx want to pay for. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/why-six-years-for-pablo-sandoval-isnt-crazy/

Well that is the way with free agency generally - almost every contract is an "overpay" in the sense that you have to win an auction. As noted earlier, my first call would be to Texas to see what it would take to get Beltre back (short contract, Texas might be rebuilding - or maybe not, but it doesn't hurt to ask). After that there are good reasons to sign (or not sign) any of the three guys on the market. I am genuinely unsure which door I'd step in if I were them.

.712 OPS last year in full go at Pawtucket ... did not crush the level like he did at AA. I haven't quit on him - but I don't see a need to tattoo his spot in the lineup either.

Or not - depends on the guy. I don't love the idea - but Cecchini's plateauing at AAA introduces some uncertainty into his ability to be a starter, enough that a quality veteran option (and not a bridge) is sensible. I am conflicted, but I like Sandoval.

If he comes back with a real third pitch that is one thing ... but the indicators have not been good and the Red Sox org depth here is considerable. De La Rosa, Owens and Barnes are all more projectable - and maybe even the dude we got for Miller (who I have not seen).

6 years would be tough. At the same time, he is the youngest of the premium free agents - the only one which you can really still project a year or two of improvement. He is a low strikeout guy - which might have more value now than it did in the more offense-heavy past, and he is a solid 3B. He is probably the safest investment of the third basemen - or at least the least likely to be a true albatross. The Sabathia comparison is spectacularly unfair to CC, whose fat ass was one of the most reliable starters in the league for 12 seasons. It's not the favorite body type on earth, but CC got a ton of mileage out of it. It is tempting to talk about his portliness, but would be intellectually dishonest without noting that the fact he had been a 180+ inning starter from the time he was 20 has as much to do with his wearing down. Sandoval's body seems problematic - but it has not actually hurt his production too much, improving the body is one of those low hanging fruit things that could get some bonafide improvement - which is not a common thing to get from a 6-year free agent.

Quite a bit. The Cubs are absolutely loaded with bats and shortstops. The Nationals have a job opening in the middle of the infield too. Hell, the Cubs could dangle Starlin Castro if the Nationals are into that sort of thing.

I don't think it's giving up per se - team is trying to optimize the player. It could be Webster's best way to get rich also. Now he might end up being a good starter, but the control issues - both the walks and the somewhat alarming homerun rates for an alleged sinkerballer. Developing that third pitch is something you can figure out relatively quickly.

Really the A's gave up one player who might have been a cornerstone piece (Addison Russell) for seriously upgrading their rotation. Cespedes' loss hurt, but not as much as Brandon Moss forgetting how to hit. Indeed if Bob Melvin (a generally very good manager) had moved a facial muscle or two while Lester was melting down in the playoff game (not a referendum on Lester - it happens to the best of us), nobody is having this conversation or narrative.

Players will sign where they are happy. The Phillies got Cliff Lee back as noted - but they also paid top dollar for him. Money still works quite well.

Yeah that is the interesting question. Was that something an offseason without rehab can fix or a man's tattered remains?

With the starting it's not the command - but the ability to command 3 pitches (and thus turn a lineup over at least 2 times). Webster doesn't have that ability or feel. But give him a role where he doesn't have to throw the 3rd pitch, and his fastball can play up a couple extra mph, and he could be fantastic.

I think the booing would be limited ... there is a ton of good will he has built. Two titles, a no-hitter, classy guy. Lot of big performances. If he falters it becomes a tougher deal, but fans won't boo a guy like him who is still trying and competing. Besides I don't think in the next 5 years he is going to slip to anything worse than a mid-tier starter. It will be a mild overpay, but not for the economic environment.

Masterson as anything other than back end filler is a waste. He is another prime conversion candidate, but somebody will pay him to start.

I think they listen on Napoli. Not because they want to move him, but because he has legitimate value in the market. Also, key to this is the evaluation of Allen Craig. If the assessment is that Craig is not finished, he is probably only really playable at 1B.

Another thing to note is the recent changes from the CBA - when you put caps on the draft bonuses and many of the international signing bonuses - where else is the money going to go? With the infusion of TV cash and the reduction in ways to use the money, I think this will be the new normal (a lot of money chasing a smaller timber of guys).

What I'd note is that dWAR is poor for catchers - it is one of the places where defensive measurement is very very limited.

I can see where you are coming from. But he profiles quite a bit like AJ. Good power, poor on base skills and either below average or worse defensively. Trading for him makes sense but I wouldn't offer a ton. Vasquez I like a lot - with his defense he just has to get to adequate on base skills (and last year's .308 is not that far away). Make some more contact, and that is a good player. I also would be worried - with Cespedes and Castillo already you are casting a couple of guys with dicey on-base skills (and I am assuming Bogaerts makes the sort of strides you expect a 23 year old to make) to begin with, and this team is still trying to win with being tough outs.

Lincecum was booted from the rotation which was not actually that good (not up to Giants timber of 2010 or 2012). He got $18M from SF almost entirely as a thank you present for what he did for the club in his cheaper years. I think Lincecum has some real value as a 100 IP relief weapon if a team wanted to try that (and with the success the Giants had with Petit, maybe "long men" might come back into fashion). But he is a back end starter now at best.

Oh we agree on the 4-year hitch. But I do think there is some real development-related improvement, stuff which is more built to last than other things. That said, it does portend to what the Red Sox SHOULD do with the bullpen. Take your Webster, your Workman, maybe throw a few shekels at Brandon Morrow ... take your ex-starters with stuff and make them the next Wade Davis or Andrew Millers.

K-Rod is a 1-inning closer at this point, and can't handle anything higher leverage than that. Last year could be an outlier but the 14 HRs in less than 70 IPs is a major red flag. But I wouldn't want to give 4 years to ANY reliever. That said, the Red Sox saved Miller's career, All reliever numbers are SSS granted, but in the pen he cut his walk rate in half, is striking out over 1/3 of the batters he faces and is a lefty who can pitch to both sides of the plate.

Overpaid relative to teachers and folks who do social good? No doubt. Overpaid relative to an industry that is drowning in cash between TV and taxpayer funded stadiums? Not so much. And in free agency (the winners curse thing) teams will likely overpay just by having to win an auction. 3B is a priority simply because that position has performed so terribly the last 2 seasons. The only decent production we've had there in the last 3 years was a Bogaerts postseason and splashes of Brock Holt and Middlebrooks. For an alleged corner bat position, that is rough. Frankly my first call would be to Jon Daniels to see if Beltre is available - Rangers do need to get younger, Beltre has what looks like a decent contract now (1 year, $16M with a pretty reasonable vest for 2016) and though 35 is still playing at an All-Star level (if not downballot MVP one). But assuming that is a non-starter (simply because the Rangers might still have dreams) - Sandoval is probably the safer of the two between him and Ramirez (between age and defense). Headley is probably a better value. A bridge solution would be nice though - but 3B depth across the league is poor, it's hard to find those guys.

Miller is the best reliever on the market - the capital "C" closer thing is silly (closers are made not born). But that means somebody will could pay him for 4 years - and I'd deeply, sincerely loathe having to give ANY reliever that kind of bread. The Royals approach makes sense - and to be fair, the Red Sox had a game shortening pen last year. But there is an element of luck to find those guys and you have to be good with cycling through a lot of dudes. Personally, I'd move Workman back to the pen and Webster to the pen in this spirit. In particular Webster profiles as the sort of guy who could be dynamite only having to throw 2 pitches.

funny thing with Bradley is, his defense is so good that the offensive threshhold for him to be a real starter is very low. It could be something as simple as shortening his swing and focusing on contact (the sort of adjustment which you can't really make during the season). Sure a .270/.320/.380 slash would not get the heart aflutter, but with his glove that is an average-above average starter. You have to expect it will have to happen somewhere else tho.