sk7326

oh it's more than a crap shoot - the middle is actually quite good. Compare the 2-4 starters with peers in the AL and it's not bad at all. Yeah it doesn't compare to Detroit, but neither does anybody else. The first five in the rotation are all decent and young enough to project improvement to some degree or anotherr. Barnes, Johnson and Owens will all see some reps during the season. The rotation is probably one guy away, but there is time to find the guy.

I think the chances are pretty good Vasquez rises to adequate offensively. Contact rates in lower levels were good. Power was not, but he can add value offensively, no doubt. It's a good problem to have - in a sport where there is very little catching to go around, the Sox might have two true starters.

Org writeups here: http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/12249592/top-prospects-every-mlb-team-mlb?ex_cid=InsiderTwitter_law_topprospectseverymlbteam

Oh i don't dismiss it out of hand - but wait for injuries for that to happen. Also, the quality of his bat matters. What is interesting is that Swihart and Vasquez are so close together developmentally. If Swihart is what he is - he is here for 2016.

reduces his positional value. If he can be an All-Star catcher, then it is a poor use of resources to keep them both - and not great for either guy's career to boot.

Free Agent contracts are almost always net negatives. This is because most ballplayers don't get to FA until most of their expected peak is done. There is also the winner's curse - the game theory phemonenon - where the winning team will overpay in order to win the auction. You are (especially with premium guys) paying for non-peak years. But that's ok - doesn't mean you don't do it. But homegrown guys are the lifeblood and your best source for getting superstars while they are being superstars. Free agency is good to address very specific needs. The prospect hit rate recently has looked worse than it is - only because the expectations are always through the roof, and there flat out not the number of job openings as there are in Tampa for instance.

Disagree on Bard - he was excellent for most of the season as a setup guy. Yes, it makes sense to try every pitcher as a starter before ruling it out, that was something that had to be (and was) done on the way up. And of course how you handle prospects has to do with the kid too. Betts demolished every level before coming up - you couldn't keep him down. Bogaerts too sailed through levels legitimately. Last year was rough, but everything about Bogaerts' past says he will figure all of this out. Bradley basically got a look in 2013 on the back of a handful of spring training ABs. (and Drew's injury granted) That is silly. He LOST his CF gig on the back of Grady Sizemore's handful of spring training ABs. That was sillier. With Middlebrooks, they reacted to a hot few weeks while Youk was hurt. If anything, the org's recent issues with prospects has been dithering with them when they don't deliver orgasmic levels of joyous performance at once. I hate saying "back when Tito and Epstein were around" but there you go - Pedroia's first couple of months in a big league gig were simply awful. But the team stood by its evaluation of the player and the manager kept putting him out there. You can't have it both ways - play the kids and then penalize them for being kids.

Oh I am too - I just think there is time to figure that out. Baseball's economic health and extra wild card spot makes it harder to trade for the ace in the offseason: very few teams are truly economically under duress, and more teams than ever can credibly sell winning as an option, at least in April. The trade market needs some time to open up - so the reality of the Cueto's or David Price's can set in/not set in. I am realistic - I wish Lester stayed. But with him gone and Scherzer going somewhere else, the question is "then what". They improved the back end of the rotation - and Porcello, considering both age and performance, could provide as much value as Shields. They seriously improved the durability of the rotation - there is a lot of history of just being able to deliver solid quantity here. Do I expect this team to be the wire-to-wire best team in baseball like in 2013? No. But it is much improved from 2014, and a pretty good bet to be good enough for the sack of trade goodies to be able to deliver something better.

If the offense is 12th again, then we're SOL. But the bet is a combination of fixing the offense and just adding more decent pitchers will allay a bunch of that. The team doesn't have to beat Felix Hernandez each of the 162 times out. The staff is generally young-ish and durable. It's not sexy certainly, but a lot of the 71-91 record last year was owed to some very low ceiling guys getting a lot of starts down the stretch. The upside for the 2015 team is a lot less certain than the upside for the 2013 one (which was basically, geez, if only these guys stopped getting hurt).

True - both were overpromoted, and it seemed true at the time too.

It means they are OPENING THE SEASON with this rotation. And you know what? If the lineup upgrades are real (both the new guys and the guys improving who should improve) - this rotation is plenty good enough to keep them in the race until the deadline. One figures that Cueto could be had - but not now. The Reds still have the pieces of a team that can at least dream of making the playoffs right now. But when that dream fades? Suddenly things change. The Red Sox right now - if healthy - put out a competitive starter every night out, and that should be enough to be in some version of contention. The lack of a true blue #1 will hurt them in October - but to get to October, having significant depth is pretty good. Masterson is the lynchpin here - he was genuinely awful last season. If he can get back to "above-average", the rotation looks a lot better.

Seems like change of scenery helped. But also it speaks to the "stuff guy who seems far away" thing. I think the O's saw his rawness and decided it was worth the calculated gamble.

Couple of chat items: John (Boston) How much consideration did Red Sox LP Brian Johnson get? Was he close? Klaw (1:28 PM) Another high-floor, low-ceiling guy. Pitches with an average fastball, no knockout pitch. --------------------------------- Johnny (Billerica, MA) Blake Swihart, what is the plan with him? Long-term Catcher? A move to 1B? Trade Vasquez? Thanks! Klaw (1:39 PM) Catcher. No-doubt catcher. -------------------- Tim (AZ) How important was position of the player in determinging ranking? For example does a player like Susac get rated higher because he plays a premium position? Klaw (1:45 PM) Yes, absiolutely. Catchers and shortstops rule. First basemen are scarce. I think Dom Smith is the highest 1b on the list, and even he's probably a bit controversial because he didn't hit for power last year. ---------------------------- John (Boston) Thanks for your time Keith. From the little that I've seen and his age, does Rafael Devers have the potential to sky rocket towards the top 10 next year? I'm as excited about him as anyone. Klaw (2:13 PM) If you want one guy in 51-100 who could race up to the top 10-15 next year, I think I'd say him. Sky seems to be the limit.

True - although in this list it's 20 vs 29, which is a small gap. It really is a stuff vs feel/IQ thing. I think the industry consensus that I've seen is Rodriguez has better stuff but is also farther away.

Posted this separately - but will add here that Devers and Margot are in the Top 80. His process (to contrast with others):

The preamble - to give an idea of the formula

I wouldn't worry that much. After all, usually (and this is always a source of argument on these boards) when prospect sites talk about a #1 upside - they are referring to likelihood to be a Top 10 sort of pitcher. Personally I think a #2 sort of ceiling (e.g. Top 30-40 pitchers in the majors) level is possible. Generally deception and feel guys are not at the top of list of true aces. That said. I think his consistent strikeout rates give me more optimism than SoxProspects has.

Devers in a full season league as an 18 year old is really really exciting stuff. Same with Margot being able to potentially get to Portland before he can legally drink.

Rodrguez is the stuff guy, Owens is the feel guy. Owens seems much more likely to have a good career, Rodriguez seems to have a higher peak. It is an interesting discussion. As far as trading? My tiers look like this 1. Never say never but: Betts, Bogaerts, Swihart ... need controllable Major League quality, and that might not even be enough 2. This better be good: Owens, Rodriguez ... has to facilitate a good return. Due to inherent injury risk, I'm always more willing to move pitchers than hitters in the farm. But raising pitching is the best way to get it. 3. Kids who will make me look bad: Margot, Devers, Chavis, Travis, Ball ... just so young, and for a team with the Red Sox timelines, it might not be worth it to wait 3 years when a proven 2015-2016 solution might be available. One of these guys could blossom for another team and break my heart, but it might be a price worth paying to complete a key deal. 4. Trade fodder: Johnson, Barnes, Cecchini, Coyle, Merrero, Escobar, Shaw ... upside limited, but all have fans among some of the player evaluation population. Star potential low enough (and they are close enough to AAA) that you deal them to make the big club better without worrying too much

That time of year. I do respect the paywall, so just put out the relevant extracts: http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/12198324/kris-bryant-no-1-2015-ranking-top-100-prospects-mlb?ex_cid=InsiderTwitter_law_top100prospects2015 http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/12211557/kris-bryant-byron-buxton-top-100-prospects-mlb http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/12211903/chicago-cubs-no-1-farm-system-rankings-2015-mlb Red Sox #5 system in the league Guys in the Top 100 10. Blake Swihart (#56 last year) 20. Henry Owens (#42 last year) 29. Eduardo Rodriguez (#43 last year) 55. Rafael Devers (Unranked last year) 70. Manuel Margot (Listed last year as org sleeper)

Defense is also one of the areas which gets better at the MLB level. Often the orgs best fielding instruction is at the big league level - for the Sox that is the case (Butterfield). Vasquez is going to be a quality starter for somebody for quite some time - if he can just hit enough.

Lucchino is a very tough hombre - which makes him enemies. He is also both a baseball guy, but came from a business background, so he is not precisely a baseball guy. What is interesting about him is that he actually has a ton of experience - at running a sports business, which is experience very few guys actually have. So he understands how to build a baseball operation, and how to run a ballpark - but he's not a scout or a GM. So it feels like meddling when he gets into the baseball side, even though he has more credibility in that area than your average corporate suit. I think a lot of his bad rap comes from the idea that he does pay attention to the Red Sox as a media company, and not just as a baseball team. I don't blame him for that - although clearly I care about baseball decisions on their own merit.

There will be more. Cherington will be keeping his eye out for relievers anyway. Year to year performance for relievers is more or less totally unreliable. But there are a lot of live arms.

Mitchell Boggs cameo on Cheers was funny.

1. Hall did a lousy job as usual - but the four they got in deserved to be in. Ballot was stacked and there were many more that deserved nods. 2. The three titles are the apex of my fandom obviously. But the chance to watch people do something at a truly artful level is also why I watch sports. Pedro may not be the best pitcher of my lifetime (when you consider longevity as well as peak). But his best was far and away the best I've ever seen. He was legitimately appointment viewing in a way that no other pitcher of my time (I go back to the mid-80s) was. Clemens had the power - and was awesome, I am not going to lie. But the fastball, curve, change combo Pedro had was something special. His 17 K game at Yankee Stadium and his 6 innings against Cleveland in 1999 will be forever. 3. Hope everyone had a happy holiday - whatever applies or doesn't.