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sk7326

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Everything posted by sk7326

  1. sk7326

    The Cubs

    sk7326 replied to iortiz's topic in Other Baseball

    Cubs are the league's best team right now - but we also know it's baseball - and being the best team is worth less in the postseason than it is in any other sport. It will be a fun ride.
  2. sk7326
    Probably - although wOBA is not very difficult to explain at all. It's really just correcting slugging percentage.
  3. sk7326
    oh it's Vasquez or Bradley. Bogaerts' range is never going to be amazing, but he has done a very good job. Errors are for the most part useless for conveying this sort of information. Ramirez has been good - but I wonder how much credit we are giving him because he has not been the toxic sewage dump he was last year.. Being valedictorian is nice - but if you're the valedictorian of summer school, it's a bit less impressive Our up the middle is really good - the corners are adequate but definitely the weaker part of the defense. Fortunately that is better than the reverse. I don't think we are adding value to our run prevention the way that Kansas City has - but it is a breath of fresh air compared to 2015.
  4. sk7326
    I can see it - but I am not sure how much Owens was getting out of not throwing strikes and making old Dice-K starts look like Greg Maddux ones.
  5. sk7326
    "@jonahkeri Chili Davis once told reporters "If you don't get laid in Montreal,you're really in a slump""
  6. sk7326
    Yes. The sample is too small to say anything about a guy's quality - but it is enough to say whether things have gone well or not. It's like how a .300 hitter than go 0 for 10. It doesn't mean the guy is .000 but it is still a rough 10 at-bats.
  7. sk7326
    What is fun is that the attack has found a sort of happy hybrid of the Royals sort of high contact, gap hitting and old school take and rake Red Sox. Shaw and Bogaerts have both gotten off to MVP-flavoured starts. Striking difference in the left side of the infield.
  8. sk7326
    The data is very noisy so far - he is not off to a great start clearly. But you really need 2 seasons of data to make any conclusions about the player. Bradley is more likely to bounce back.
  9. sk7326
    Cards are 17-16 with the NL's 2nd best run differential. They are not sellers. Now they could move Holliday for value reasons but they have no reason to give up on 2016.
  10. sk7326
    Yeah, but it's early - early enough that buyers and sellers have not separated too much. More than that, I was spitballing. A Hector Santiago sort from the Angels is another ... again, nothing special, but just somebody who has some fairly low variability. That said, when Rodriguez returns that final slot will most likely rise up to "acceptable". Owens disappointed me - I liked the idea of at least putting in the guy who had some actual swing and miss in him. But you gotta throw strikes. When your starts make Dice-K's look like Greg Maddux, you got a problem.
  11. sk7326
    .340 BABIP is the highest in the majors in years - so you expect some regression here. The good thing is the Red Sox are beating up on poor pitching. We focus on beating good teams, but really good seasons are built on feasting on #4 starters and not messing around with lesser opponents. So all of this is good. Bogaerts has quietly had an MVP-caliber start to the season.
  12. sk7326
    Maybe one more starter - heck, re-acquiring Wade Miley would fit the bill.
  13. sk7326
    How many innings of each?
  14. sk7326
    Also there is the question of statistical significance since there are vastly more "lead situations" than ties - it's a bit of a chicken and egg thing. You keep the pitcher in a glass container - then there won't be many alternate uses to draw from. Now could protecting a tie not be as amping as protecting a lead? Maybe - but it is hard to see. Often when the announcers talk of the closer letting down it is coming in to a blowout. A tie is still pretty high leverage.
  15. sk7326
    None of those are very significant - all of them are very good. Ties are pretty darn significant.
  16. sk7326
    Sigh - life when the tickets are printed before the national TV schedule is settled ...
  17. sk7326
    That implies that Kimbrel tries harder with a lead, which is a pretty serious indictment.
  18. sk7326
    Your posts seem to be arguing against an active engagement with the game as it's going on - which is cool ... but it's fun to think along with him.
  19. sk7326
    It's May 10. Plenty of time to fix it. Line drive rates, hard contact rates are right in line with last season.
  20. sk7326
    More than slightly flawed - it's actually not very good at all. But - it is a good training wheels sort of entry into better stats - if your world was RBIs, batting average and pitcher wins ... OPS at least is headed in the right direction. The flaws? 1. OBP and SLG have different denominators (OBP uses plate appearances, SLG uses official at-bats). They aren't additive. 2. OBP is significantly more valuable than SLG relative to scoring runs. Something like 1.7*OBP + SLG would be more accurate. And by "accurate" - we are talking about how well the stat can predict run scoring. 3. Not all outcomes are equal. SLG's use of total bases means that homeruns are 4x as valuable as a walk - which is not true from a run scoring perspective. And it ignores walks and hbp altogether. 4. OBP includes intentional walks - which is arguably not something a player should really be credited with - if you want to be totally precise. wOBA is a cleaner way to get to the information (wRC+ normalizes it, but wOBA works on an OBP type scale so it should be easy enough).
  21. sk7326
    Not the right year to be a Sonny Gray owner - sigh ... at least it is to the right team
  22. sk7326
    Yeah. I think with a 5 run lead and 1 out to go, he just did not want to walk anybody ... put it down the middle, see if the guy can hit it. Oh well
  23. sk7326
    There is no need to do anything to anybody 29 games in. There is merit in the team say, wanting to see how Benintendi looks against pitchers who have had a prior look at him. I think there is a 20% chance he is in Boston by the end of the year - only because we have seen a couple of real life examples already of that timeline last season. If he moves to Portland and rakes there, promoting him to the bigs is a real possibility - we know that AAA is more a taxi squad now than ever.
  24. sk7326
    They shepherded the best decade in the franchise - not much apology needed.
  25. sk7326
    They do. Ultimately positions block or unblock themselves. His value as a catcher >> that as a LF - this is pretty obvious.
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