sk7326

None of those are very significant - all of them are very good. Ties are pretty darn significant.

Sigh - life when the tickets are printed before the national TV schedule is settled ...

That implies that Kimbrel tries harder with a lead, which is a pretty serious indictment.

Your posts seem to be arguing against an active engagement with the game as it's going on - which is cool ... but it's fun to think along with him.

It's May 10. Plenty of time to fix it. Line drive rates, hard contact rates are right in line with last season.

More than slightly flawed - it's actually not very good at all. But - it is a good training wheels sort of entry into better stats - if your world was RBIs, batting average and pitcher wins ... OPS at least is headed in the right direction. The flaws? 1. OBP and SLG have different denominators (OBP uses plate appearances, SLG uses official at-bats). They aren't additive. 2. OBP is significantly more valuable than SLG relative to scoring runs. Something like 1.7*OBP + SLG would be more accurate. And by "accurate" - we are talking about how well the stat can predict run scoring. 3. Not all outcomes are equal. SLG's use of total bases means that homeruns are 4x as valuable as a walk - which is not true from a run scoring perspective. And it ignores walks and hbp altogether. 4. OBP includes intentional walks - which is arguably not something a player should really be credited with - if you want to be totally precise. wOBA is a cleaner way to get to the information (wRC+ normalizes it, but wOBA works on an OBP type scale so it should be easy enough).

Not the right year to be a Sonny Gray owner - sigh ... at least it is to the right team

Yeah. I think with a 5 run lead and 1 out to go, he just did not want to walk anybody ... put it down the middle, see if the guy can hit it. Oh well

There is no need to do anything to anybody 29 games in. There is merit in the team say, wanting to see how Benintendi looks against pitchers who have had a prior look at him. I think there is a 20% chance he is in Boston by the end of the year - only because we have seen a couple of real life examples already of that timeline last season. If he moves to Portland and rakes there, promoting him to the bigs is a real possibility - we know that AAA is more a taxi squad now than ever.

They shepherded the best decade in the franchise - not much apology needed.

They do. Ultimately positions block or unblock themselves. His value as a catcher >> that as a LF - this is pretty obvious.

Not sure how surprising Petey is - the surprise is that his body has not fallen apart yet

Trout could get them a huge haul. At the same time, the Angels are a big market team who has the league's best player. I think the preference has to be to build around him. A suitor would have to pay a ton - but barring injury and a possibility he has to move to a corner, he's better than what you'd expect to be available for any reason.

My guess is something like $1M with innings incentives to make much more

Because he is a knuckleballer - and sometimes this happens. Tim Wakefield was 14-1 with a microscopic ERA in 1995 coming from the minors. Embrace it - his ability to help the pen is huh yooge

The one book Peter Gammons wrote covered this well, "Beyond the Sixth Game" - a great baseball version of Halberstam's "Breaks of the Game" - profiling the dawn of free agency, and how some teams did not handle it as well as others.

Smith last pitched Monday - the game was very much on the table. For me #2 of the 3 noted was worst by far. I don't get the general philosophy that a 1 run deficit requires your best relievers to sit - raising a white flag in relative terms.

Porcello - although I was absolutely optimistic he would establish himself as a dependable rotation guy ... but so far this is better than that Shaw - I knew he'd be starting caliber but again he's been better than that Wright - a knuckleballer on a streak is not a surprise, but still Really that is it for true surprises ... Ramirez we knew would be solid if he got healthy and in a position which fit his eye better. Scientists will be confounded how one of the easiest positions on the diamond vexed him so, but no matter. He is clearly an adequate 1B and the bat is starting to come around. Pedroia we knew is still an All-Star level force if healthy.

Another couple of exhibits in the "Farrell Game Management" museum 1. Flip flopping Bradley and Vasquez. With the top of the order Boston has, slightly lowering the probability of the top of the order coming on with guys to knock in is not good. Now that is a fairly minor offense compared to ... 2. Sending Betts up to bunt when Vasquez was already in scoring position. Bunting is one of those things like intentional walks, which seems like a smart, professional managery thing to do - but it very very rarely is. 3. Managing the bullpen by score. Somehow down a run is different than tied - so Tommy Layne gets the call instead of Uehara or Carson Smith. That is kind of baffling to me, although he is consistent with that logic. Same with having both Kimbrel and Uehara up for the 9th. After all, it's not like Koji can't finish. Should not be so fearful of putting Kimbrel into a tie game.

True. Really you can only evaluate trades at the time you make them - because all trades have imperfect information. But given the imperfect information are you making a high percentage decision (or at least high-ish).

I am not sure to read too much into that. One of the virtues of the knuckleballer is the ability to keep the rest of the rotation on schedule. You want to give a guy an extra day, you can move Wright up to make that happen. I think of Wakefield going on two days rest multiple times to get the bullpen back on schedule. Putting Wright between Buchholz and Owens gave some cushion in case the pitching staff needed it (like it did last night).

Ultimately I throw up my hands with knuckleballers. Enjoy it while it lasts and don't ask too many questions. Wright will give a durable 180+ innings this season ... and there is a decent chance I'll be hiding my eyes if we line him up in a postseason series. But he could be (like Wakefield) invaluable for getting through the marathon.

I cringed at the Margot price - although at least they got a stud. The Reddick deal was shaky also. The others were a bit easier to swallow (and I certainly think the position prospect for reliever deal is shaky on principle): Miley we were selling low, and we got a stud reliever for him ... Lowrie had showed no ability to stay healthy, Murphy was a 4th outfielder/platoon sort. Those were all more defensible.

If you do it - young, controllable major league studs is what you do it for. You give up a ton of quality - but you get quality with a faster payback. Stanton in particular qualifies as the sort of guy you consider giving your shiniest stuff for. After all Tony Armas and Carl Pavano was tremendous prospect value to give up for Pedro. Can't worry too much about what they become - flags fly forever. I mean - even while the Beckett deal was probably a net loss, it directly led to one championship and a 25 year old with his history was precisely the sort of guy you make a high value trade for.

There are no absolutes - but it is generally a bad idea ... especially when the goals in the minor leagues are completely different than the show. Older guys at lower levels are low percentage bets - as some guys have proven, low percentage does not mean zero. In Wright's case - ultimately knuckleballers are unscoutable - just close your eyes and hope.