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sk7326

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Everything posted by sk7326

  1. sk7326
    Here is the thing - the right thing and the wrong thing (mostly) are right and wrong regardless of result. All you can grade is process, because process involves playing percentages. By definition playing percentages means there is something left to chance. Not swapping a lefty on lefty for a lefty killer - absolutely reduces the probability of a successful outcome. Now, games aren't played on paper - they're played in TV sets - so you can't control the outcome. But you can increase or decrease probability - and from an in-game tactics perspective, that is totally fair game.
  2. sk7326
    Swihart should keep playing at AAA in the current alignment - he needs reps behind the plate. He has shown signs of being a good defender, but he needs time - catcher is the slowest developing position of them all. It's a good path to the bigs due to low supply, but it has the oldest average rookie age. Young is what he is - he is not hitting, but he is not hurting anybody either. The kids will be in Portland soon enough. They are not old for the level - so relax.
  3. sk7326
    Price's fundamentals are still quite good. Strikeout rate is fine. His BABIP is really high - and that is driving the ERA/FIP spread. Now some of that is tied into a high line drive rate. How much of all of these things are self correcting is the key. But the strikeout rate has been top notch, and that is a good place to start. Plus he has basically been either outstanding or not good - so it's not like he hasn't been able to find the form. Just not consistently yet.
  4. sk7326
    Even the opener - if you want a less obvious decision was not lifting Holt for Young with the bases juiced and the Sox having a chance to blow the game open.
  5. sk7326
    One month of SOX fWAR Bogaerts 1.2 Ortiz, Shaw, Pedroia 1.0 Bradley, Betts 0.5 Holt 0.3 Vasquez 0.2 Ramirez -0.2 PITCHERS Price 0.9 Wright, Porcello, Hembree 0.4 Uehara 0.3 Tazawa 0.2 For me, pitching nominees are Porcello and Wright. Price's FIP is very favorable because of crazy high BABIP - but if there is a drop in velocity that persists, then the BABIP might be for real. Either way, I am more comfortable with the other two guys. I have to go with Wright, who has been a shade more consistent than Porcello. Position player wise really a lot to choose from. You pick any of Bogaerts, Ortiz, Pedroia or Shaw and it is hard to disagree. But I'd go with Bogaerts. Defense continues to improve, and he has upped the walk rate. There is some untapped power there - but even without it, he has been really really solid. It is easy to forget that he won't be 24 until October.
  6. sk7326
    Young has always had a massive split - and while I can defend him for starting Young to get him PAs given how few lefties we have faced ... the usage of Young as a pinch hitter has been peculiar. Farrell's strengths as a manager have been in the stuff "we don't see". He is getting good effort from his guys and he understands the culture here very well. And really that might be enough for me to offset the on the field stuff (the Young thing, or somehow needing 13 active pitchers)
  7. sk7326
    His main issue was durability - and fans could get upset at him because of his demeanor (as noted above, I'm not sure he actually would play baseball if he wasn't so good at it). But he was largely very much worth his salary - friends don't let friends use RBIs to determine anything one way or the other. In general you sign a 30+ year old, it's going to be a loser at the end - it's the lot you live with in UFA. It's also why Mike Trout was able to get the sun, moon and stars in a pre-FA extension, and why Bryce Harper will be the most coveted and lavishly compensated UFA in history.
  8. sk7326
    I think weed is on the list for minor league testing.
  9. sk7326
    What is funny is that Sandoval HAS had a pretty high threshhold. As noted before, remarkably gifted athletically - which has allowed him to be, frankly, more nimble than a guy as tubby as he is ought to be. But clearly it looks like he has passed some sort of threshhold.
  10. sk7326
    Drew was largely solid and productive. In a way he was hampered by his brush with MVP-ness when he was in Atlanta (and probably should have won it). That he never touched it hurt his narrative though he was productive. Also - and this is just me spitballing - he always gave me the sense of a guy who played baseball because it was a family business. The game was so easy for him, but somewhere in his heart, he might have wished he was a painter or something.
  11. sk7326
    The Red Sox All-Time list by bWAR ... obviously all-in-one stats are not infallible, but curious to see where it ends up. I combine batters and pitchers 1. Ted Williams 126.1 2. Carl Yastrzemski 96.1 3. Roger Clemens 81.3 4. Wade Boggs 71.6 5. Cy Young 66.2 6. Dwight Evans 66.2 7. Tris Speaker 55.4 8. Pedro Martinez 53.8 9. Bobby Doerr 51.2 10. David Ortiz 49.0 11. Jim Rice 47.4 12. Dustin Pedroia 46.3 13. Lefty Grove 44.7 14. Nomar Garciaparra 41.1 15. Carlton Fisk 39.5 16. Rico Petrocelli 39.1 17. Harry Hooper 38.4 18. Luis Tiant 36.4 19. Jimmie Foxx 34.6 20. Reggie Smith 34.2 21. Manny Ramirez 33.2 22. Tim Wakefield 32.6 23. John Valentin 32.1 24. Dom Dimaggio 32.0 25. Fred Lynn 31.9 26. Kevin Youkilis 31.4 27. Jon Lester 30.7 28. Larry Gardner 30.5 29. Johnny Pesky 30.5 30. Smoky Joe Wood 29.9 Even if you take some away from Williams (and it is all because of his bat, he was below replacement level on defense) due to 1/3 of his career predating integration he laps the field.
  12. sk7326
    Ortiz was never the best hitter of his era. He will end up as one of my two favorite all time Red Sox, and for me that is enough. Ortiz' great moments (which I will never forget) are at least as much a symptom of the Red Sox largely being really good for most of his time here.
  13. sk7326
    A reduction in fastball speed is not a red flag in itself if he can pitch without it - was something that was bound to happen. That said, yeah the hard contact is striking - and leads to a career worst BABIP by a mile - .362 - so high that you expect some regression. The homerun rate is crazy high as well right now. I am optimistic this will settle down a little, simply because he has still been outstanding in spots. The shaky home starts to me can be explained by weather - but definitely watching.
  14. sk7326
    Sox got it wrong. As has been noted, the Cuban free agent market creates this massive incentive to spend tons of money. Alas, the mistakes are expensive ones.
  15. sk7326
    Picking him up means there are options - I would worry more about team building if there was a law which beheads people who attempt to make moves during the season. Things tend to sort themselves out. Buchholz might leave a hold in your rotation but that you can plan for - and he was expected to be decent during the time you had him. And at (for a veteran starter) a pretty low price. Now he has not held up his end of the deal - which is a shame. Fortunately this team can absorb it for a little while.
  16. sk7326
    1. To date? No - obviously 2. Picking up his extension was a no-brainer, full stop
  17. sk7326
    What I was saying is that proof of a reverse split using season numbers is basically non existent
  18. sk7326
    I'm 38 years old and spent most of my childhood without NESN on basic tier. For me, the best of the Red Sox broadcasts were McDonough and Remy - because Sean pushed Remy much harder than any of this partners have - and it showed in the results. Droll, informative, cynical - probably the best broadcast of any tier outside of Scully and some of the better Skip Caray years. Living in DC, Jim Palmer is generally good - but Gary Thorne is insufferable (which is deeply ironic given his background).
  19. sk7326
    It's May 1 ... lots of games for it to catch up. Splits themselves can be deceiving just because of the sheer number of at-bats the guys have had against lefties to this point. Indeed, the career splits have much more validity.
  20. sk7326
    Actualy JBJ at 9th is a great option - he goes in so many slumps it is hard to move him up, but it helps prevent Betts from having too many PAs with nobody on.
  21. sk7326
    Okay - let's work this way. Betts has to be in the Top 4 - because he is one of their 4 best hitters, and none of the other hitters make reasonable sustainable cases for inclusion over Betts (Travis Shaw, Holt, Vasquez, Bradley, Ramirez). Could you argue he should be in a position with more RBI potential? Maybe. Given his speed relative to the others, leadoff makes more sense. Aside from Ortiz there is not a terrific amount of on-base differentiation.
  22. sk7326
    and it ended at .341. 2014 ended at .368. In other words bet the over.
  23. sk7326
    Too few PAs to conclude anything from stats. He's 23 and their best player. Let him breathe.
  24. sk7326
    I don't see the panic yet - the panic was much worse in the "between Theo and Dombrowski" time. Vasquez was healthy - so he came in. After that, whatever you did with Swihart - he needed to play. So playing at AAA > not playing in Boston.
  25. sk7326
    SSS alert ...
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