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sk7326

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Everything posted by sk7326

  1. I've always noted the Red Sox lack of pitching talent has more to do with the team generally being good ... (there is a solid correlation between the true aces and high draft position). There has been some risk aversion taking high school pitching, especially outside of the top rounds, which does warrant some skepticism. The leaps the Red Sox have had to make are larger than other teams often. They got the top high school pitching prospect in the draft - and went with a lot of easy signs to help them. We'll see if it works. The nice thing is the Red Sox draft people have stuck around in a lot of cases. As has been noted the 2011 draft is looking ridiculously productive.
  2. Law's writeup http://espn.go.com/blog/mlb-draft/insider/post?id=2947
  3. When someone talks about the 140 years of baseball tradition ... it is fun to note that there were 71 years of national league baseball (a bit less than the 88 year Sox curse) before integration. It's okay to try to make things better. Obviously the level of social justice is not comparable.
  4. There have been exactly 20 pitchers who have turned out more innings since Porcello has had a full time job. His stats line up roughly with guys like Gallardo, Buehrle, RA Dickey, Ervin Santana. Red Sox clearly are not paying discount for him - but the contract far more likely than not is going to turn out "okay".
  5. And non-integration did for almost the length of the Red Sox curse ... evolution is okay. How would umpires get eliminated? Who calls check swings? Who calls plays at the plate? How do you hear foul tips? (you could put sensors in the bats - but that is probably prohibitively expensive given the rate of wood bats being destroyed)
  6. This makes sense - the issue (I think) is whether those tolerances are attainable by humans who have to watch the flight of the ball and pay attention to what the hitter is doing simultaneously. The umps already make enough mistakes when they are judging it based on where the pitch is caught. What is not appreciated is that the strike zone is in reality a 3-dimensional problem. The catcher catching the pitch 2 inches off the plate theoretically not an issue if the ball actually tailed in such a way that it touched the "strike zone box". But for a human ump to be able to do that to even a 95% overall accuracy level is likely impossible. I am not trying to displace umpires - or to remove an umpire from home plate. My goal here is taking what the home plate umpire has to deal with, and giving him help with the part which is hardest to do - and leads to the most bellyaching. I am for an objective rule being called correctly (the strike zone is not mythical - the rule book covers it) and for reducing umpshows (which the ball and strikes thing causes more than any other).
  7. In the South, it's stale hot dogs and boiled peanuts
  8. Especially when you consider how much the pitch outcome changes the expectations of a given at-bat.
  9. And they are needed for judgment where the judgment is the best tool that exists. Calling balls and strikes is not one of those places.
  10. One is playing the game - the other is rules enforcement and basic fairness.
  11. Steven Wright ... can't be anybody else. Shaw has receded into a "good but not crazy unexpected good" sort of level. Now, if you want to call Bogaerts a surprise - because the power is starting to show up, and that he has had a serious MVP-caliber start - that is fair game.
  12. Best part was Lyons assuming Bogaerts had to put that bunt down on his own ... he might have, but it's not like Farrell has earned that benefit.
  13. 1. College is much worse, especially with the intentional foul game 2. Managers will still charge out on the field - because they don't do it because the call was wrong. They do it to keep a player from getting run.
  14. It will never be CLOSE - because the ump has to pay attention to a pitch coming in at 90 mph plus with movement - and the hitter. The reason catchers are taught to B.S. the umpires is because umpires have no choice but to rely on them. I think they are probably doing as well as they can right now.
  15. Follow the #umpshow hashtag on ye olde twitter and you'll see some doozys. Umps go after players all ... the ... time.
  16. His back issues did move him off of CF - but yeah the bat continued to play ...
  17. This bullpen is pretty good
  18. This is all good - but again, that fangraphs piece noted that the data has plateaued. There is a distinct possibility that 14% or so is the human limit on this - just like how the human body places a cap that prevents us from finding a pitcher who throws 110 mph. When you are talking about a difference in error rate between 14% and
  19. And to be fair - I don't think Dombrowski will bat an eye at trading a 19 year old if he can get the #2 starter - especially one with 3 years of so of reasonable performance.
  20. We'll see ... Devers is 19 - he is not being blocked by anyone ... There will be a way to get another starter - just a matter of priority. Fortunately they are winning enough to figure this out.
  21. I count three ... Kelly should not be starting and Rodriguez needs a few more starts to feel better.
  22. Here is the thing - the strike zone is defined clearly. This is not a basketball foul - where some contact is allowable - it is a three dimensional box that the ball has to touch on its path. It's not umpire's choice. Now the umpires can't do this job well ... with all of the improvement, we are at a 14% error rate which would be scandalous for almost any other process. (and no call in sports gets made more frequently each game). Automating called balls and strikes does not eliminate the umpire, nor does it eliminate his job at judging swinging strikes. It helps him with the hardest part of his job. It is one thing for the sport to decide that the umps judgment cannot be argued with - but it is less okay to do that and then prevent the umpire from doing the job more accurately. I like the sport's randomness - the homerun in Camden that is a single at Fenway- the way an 83-79 team can win a World Series on 3 good weeks of baseball. Random application of rules and random stipulations based on specific umpires is professional wrestling. (which I love too, but I keep separate from my baseball)
  23. The full no-trade means Pedroia is in charge and that if the Red Sox want to deal him, it will cost them. Guys have waived NTCs before. I would have a hard time doing it because he is still an elite (or damn near) infielder on an astonishingly cheap deal.
  24. It is tempting to call Pedroia overrated. He is white, tiny, hustles - stuff reporters love. He's like our own cuddly David Eckstein. Except ... the year he won the MVP (2008), Pedroia was also 2nd in the AL in bWAR behind Nick Markakis (who was on a 68 win team, and we know how that plays with MVP voters). He was unambiguously one of the best players in the league. 2013, the overrated Pedroia finished 10th in bWAR among all AL players (including pitchers). 2014, fighting injuries he was still a 4-5 win player. Indeed you look at his seasons (and I'll use bWAR) 2008: 6.9 (2nd in the AL) 2009: 5.6 2010: 3.2 in 75 games 2011: 7.9 (5th in the AL) 2012: 5.1 (9th among AL position) 2013: 6.3 (10th in the AL) 2014: 4.9 2015: 2.0 in 93 games 2016: 2.2 in 51 games It is tempting to get annoyed at the announcers talking about his scrappy mctufferson-ness. It obscures the fact that he is actually really really good at his job.
  25. The seasons he has been playing through nagging pains have been exceptionally productive ones.
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