sk7326
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Everything posted by sk7326
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I stand corrected - I keep forgetting Hill is alive. But I do not doubt the possibility of Moncada getting a whirl - and I do expect some roster machinations late in the month to get him playoff eligible
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Since we were 4th time through the lineup - I think erring to a quick hook made sense there. I'd have gone after the first baserunner after the homer. But again, Farrell got the matchups he wanted - Cano just made the play.
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Reminded me of Bob Melvin not moving a muscle as Jon Lester was letting the Wild Card lead slip away against Kansas City. That said the game went from very easy to very complicated quite quickly. He waited a batter too long maybe. That said, Farrell did get the matchups he wanted - Cano is good.
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If this is any sort of long term - could see Moncada coming. Obviously short term is Holt to 3B, Shaw to 1B
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service time is based purely on days on the roster ... so that he was this late season a callup might not be a big deal. I don't think his service time would have counted if he came as a september call up, so it is an indicator of what they think of him
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Naw. Young is there as a lefty masher. I think this is what it is - a chance to see what he has. The team is not leaning on his production - this is a pressure packed spot in that it's a pennant race. But he is working with a net here. I am looking for quality at-bats.
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Yes - that is 100% true ... neither should impact an orgs faith in its internal assessments (which should be done with more care than looking at small sample sizes).
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Benintendi playing LF is not an issue for me - at least on the road. At Fenway - well a new guy there is always a question (playing the wall is a discipline different from actual outfielding). There is no real way to prepare for that. Butterfield is a reknowned fieliding instructor. This sort of transition is not uncommon. That Hanley dealt with it so poorly is rare. I will dismiss Bogaerts struggles the next season a little bit - the team did not give him a chance to get comfortable doing anything.
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My guess is they have been impressed with his ability to figure stuff out and deal with a lot of stuff being thrown at him quickly. It's a bet on the kid. Moncada they have been slower on - but when you combine the cultural adjustment with how little baseball he had played before 2015 that is understandable.
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2016 Trade and Roster Move Speculation thread
sk7326 replied to Dojji's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Maybe Moncada ... and there is still waiver trades. For instance, if they wanted an innings eater like James Shields - they could probably get him for a sack of potatoes without anybody putting a claim on him. -
Bradley played more than Sizemore because they cut Sizemore - because he can't play anymore. Different deal. They let three weeks of spring baseball determine who was starting.
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It is a fair question - but the results would not be much different. It could get Betts a few more RBI chances, which is a good thing to do for a guy on track to hit near 30 HRs.
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The problem (if there is one) is not that he makes outs ... his OBP is plenty good - Betts is a legitimate MVP candidate ... but that batting him first reduces his RBI opportunities. Now all of these margins are small - essentially zero on a game to game basis.
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Does he? Remember this is an org which - since Epstein has left - has: 1. Turned the 3B job over to Will Middlebrooks on 4 good weeks of BABIP spiked baseball 2. Put Bradley in CF and then took the job away because Grady Sizemore's entrails had 3 good weeks of pretend baseball 3. Signed Stephen Drew to play SS and bump Bogaerts to 3B (this was more defensible - their 3B production sucked, but was a vote of no confidence for a kid who needed reps) 4. Aggressively promoted Swihart due to injury, and then seemed committed to converting him to LF after a month 5. Sent Christian Vasquez down based on an out of nowhere hot streak from a guy they had cut before (again, more defensible - Vasquez might not actually be able to hit) This is not the team that stood behind Pedroia despite a dreadful first impression.
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Simple take on the call-up 1. Benintendi has been targeted for aggressive promotion from day 1 - polished bat who cut his teeth in the best collegiate league in the country. He has responded ably each time. 2. His being here is not as important as how the Red Sox deal with him. Can Farrell and the management be patient in he needs an adjustment period (spoiler: he will)? The team has been remarkably reactionary with their kids since Epstein left.
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Not much to add on the Benintendi promotion Kids are all individuals. It's clear that he was tagged by the franchise as a guy to be promoted aggressively - and he has responded positively throughout. Clearly there will be adjustments as guys get tape on him and whatever - but kids differ in how much hand holding they need. The hypothesis here is that the answer for Benintendi is "not much". Sometimes you get guys who look like studs who never get past the "off speed pitching" or whatever (Andy Marte, Lars Anderson), and then sometimes there are other guys who entered pro baseball with precious little experience in general who just gobble up everything. (Betts) Key is that the org has a plan where the baseball operations dudes, and Farrell are on board and strong with. Farrell and the franchise has not had a good history here.
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And his manager did not want to play him through the bumps ... Conforto might still be good, but there is some org failure there. (as a Red Sox observer the last two seasons, this should sound familiar)
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The Hobson years, 1992 to the strike sucked. After that, with some specific exceptions (1997) every team at least showed up in February looking like they could contend. We have the best pitcher (at least in terms of peak) in post-integration Red Sox history, and at minimum two of the ten best players in franchise history (I'd go 3) - which for this franchise is saying something.
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He has certainly not gotten the results - how much of that is bad performance vs bad luck is certainly an open question. But obviously people should be disappointed.
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K's on offense are a completely different deal - for the most part a high strikeout rate is not a specific indicator of the pitcher not having the tools to succeed. (an excessively high one without any good stuff is, obviously) Think of it this way - from a hitter's perspective ... it is him vs the defense ... the hitter doesn't care how the defense wins (mostly) From the pitcher's side ... the strikeout is the contribution he is entirely responsible for (yes pitch calling and framing, but let's keep things simple). Other cases get to the other 8 guys - indeed it might be more about them.
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Groundballs are fine - although they had a giant sucking sound at 3B last year. In particular, when you play half the games at Fenway, keeping balls out of play is a pretty good idea. Masterson always had a ghastly split against lefties - the Red Sox were hoping that perhaps since that is the cavernous part of Fenway that the stink could be limited - clearly that did not happen.
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Lot of strikeout pitichers on that ERA- scale. fWAR uses FIP not xFIP anyway - asserting normalizing homeruns to fly ball rate is a bridge too far. Trends don't negate evaluating each snowflake individually - but the pitchers I want, especially as the season gets late and the teams get good, are dudes who miss bats (while pitching to contact). They create lots of good outcomes.
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Exceptions do not negate trends at all ... and (for instance) Maddux' peak were plenty competitive with the strikeout thing. It is the best of the box score indicators.
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I would submit that the pitchers who consistently get batters out strike out a lot of them - the world of low strikeout, consistently effective is pretty small. strikeouts might be fascist, but they do a pretty good job at measuring a pitcher's effectiveness. (and obviously rate based)
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No - because the truth underpinning the differences is very squishy (which is why measuring it is so difficult). Do pitchers influence non-homerun outcomes? Fangraphs by using FIP says no. Baseball reference - by starting with runs allowed, puts more in the pitcher's court (it adjusts for team defense and stuff later). The answer - I think is "pitchers can". But it is not a lock - and not all pitchers with good results get consistently good batted ball results. But some do - and that has to be respected. It'd be nice if the stat offered a one-stop place to say "he's good" or whatever. But that there are a couple of flavors each with different key assumptions provides more information. Price has had a significant BABIP spike and homerun-FB spike, while the K-rate and walk rate have not really changed. For the most part "betting the fluke" is the percentage play. Doesn't make the game watching easier though.