sk7326
-
Posts
7,647 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Boston Red Sox Videos
2026 Boston Red Sox Top Prospects Ranking
Boston Red Sox Free Agent & Trade Rumors, Notes, & Tidbits
Guides & Resources
2025 Boston Red Sox Draft Pick Tracker
News
2026 Boston Red Sox Draft Pick Tracker
Forums
Blogs
Events
Store
Downloads
Gallery
Everything posted by sk7326
-
It is a fair question - but the results would not be much different. It could get Betts a few more RBI chances, which is a good thing to do for a guy on track to hit near 30 HRs.
-
The problem (if there is one) is not that he makes outs ... his OBP is plenty good - Betts is a legitimate MVP candidate ... but that batting him first reduces his RBI opportunities. Now all of these margins are small - essentially zero on a game to game basis.
-
Does he? Remember this is an org which - since Epstein has left - has: 1. Turned the 3B job over to Will Middlebrooks on 4 good weeks of BABIP spiked baseball 2. Put Bradley in CF and then took the job away because Grady Sizemore's entrails had 3 good weeks of pretend baseball 3. Signed Stephen Drew to play SS and bump Bogaerts to 3B (this was more defensible - their 3B production sucked, but was a vote of no confidence for a kid who needed reps) 4. Aggressively promoted Swihart due to injury, and then seemed committed to converting him to LF after a month 5. Sent Christian Vasquez down based on an out of nowhere hot streak from a guy they had cut before (again, more defensible - Vasquez might not actually be able to hit) This is not the team that stood behind Pedroia despite a dreadful first impression.
-
Simple take on the call-up 1. Benintendi has been targeted for aggressive promotion from day 1 - polished bat who cut his teeth in the best collegiate league in the country. He has responded ably each time. 2. His being here is not as important as how the Red Sox deal with him. Can Farrell and the management be patient in he needs an adjustment period (spoiler: he will)? The team has been remarkably reactionary with their kids since Epstein left.
-
Not much to add on the Benintendi promotion Kids are all individuals. It's clear that he was tagged by the franchise as a guy to be promoted aggressively - and he has responded positively throughout. Clearly there will be adjustments as guys get tape on him and whatever - but kids differ in how much hand holding they need. The hypothesis here is that the answer for Benintendi is "not much". Sometimes you get guys who look like studs who never get past the "off speed pitching" or whatever (Andy Marte, Lars Anderson), and then sometimes there are other guys who entered pro baseball with precious little experience in general who just gobble up everything. (Betts) Key is that the org has a plan where the baseball operations dudes, and Farrell are on board and strong with. Farrell and the franchise has not had a good history here.
-
And his manager did not want to play him through the bumps ... Conforto might still be good, but there is some org failure there. (as a Red Sox observer the last two seasons, this should sound familiar)
-
The Hobson years, 1992 to the strike sucked. After that, with some specific exceptions (1997) every team at least showed up in February looking like they could contend. We have the best pitcher (at least in terms of peak) in post-integration Red Sox history, and at minimum two of the ten best players in franchise history (I'd go 3) - which for this franchise is saying something.
-
He has certainly not gotten the results - how much of that is bad performance vs bad luck is certainly an open question. But obviously people should be disappointed.
-
K's on offense are a completely different deal - for the most part a high strikeout rate is not a specific indicator of the pitcher not having the tools to succeed. (an excessively high one without any good stuff is, obviously) Think of it this way - from a hitter's perspective ... it is him vs the defense ... the hitter doesn't care how the defense wins (mostly) From the pitcher's side ... the strikeout is the contribution he is entirely responsible for (yes pitch calling and framing, but let's keep things simple). Other cases get to the other 8 guys - indeed it might be more about them.
-
Groundballs are fine - although they had a giant sucking sound at 3B last year. In particular, when you play half the games at Fenway, keeping balls out of play is a pretty good idea. Masterson always had a ghastly split against lefties - the Red Sox were hoping that perhaps since that is the cavernous part of Fenway that the stink could be limited - clearly that did not happen.
-
Lot of strikeout pitichers on that ERA- scale. fWAR uses FIP not xFIP anyway - asserting normalizing homeruns to fly ball rate is a bridge too far. Trends don't negate evaluating each snowflake individually - but the pitchers I want, especially as the season gets late and the teams get good, are dudes who miss bats (while pitching to contact). They create lots of good outcomes.
-
Exceptions do not negate trends at all ... and (for instance) Maddux' peak were plenty competitive with the strikeout thing. It is the best of the box score indicators.
-
I would submit that the pitchers who consistently get batters out strike out a lot of them - the world of low strikeout, consistently effective is pretty small. strikeouts might be fascist, but they do a pretty good job at measuring a pitcher's effectiveness. (and obviously rate based)
-
No - because the truth underpinning the differences is very squishy (which is why measuring it is so difficult). Do pitchers influence non-homerun outcomes? Fangraphs by using FIP says no. Baseball reference - by starting with runs allowed, puts more in the pitcher's court (it adjusts for team defense and stuff later). The answer - I think is "pitchers can". But it is not a lock - and not all pitchers with good results get consistently good batted ball results. But some do - and that has to be respected. It'd be nice if the stat offered a one-stop place to say "he's good" or whatever. But that there are a couple of flavors each with different key assumptions provides more information. Price has had a significant BABIP spike and homerun-FB spike, while the K-rate and walk rate have not really changed. For the most part "betting the fluke" is the percentage play. Doesn't make the game watching easier though.
-
Well, FIP is a little simplistic since it implies zero control of non homerun batted balls - which is not always true, although it is a fair first approximation. ERA can be very team dependent (and indeed the definition of an earned run - is largely byzantine and kind of stupid)
-
Clearly after the adjustment things have gone better for Benintendi. OPS is not amazing - but this being minor league baseball, that doesn't say a hell of a lot - aside from that at a young-ish age he is hanging at the big time prospect level. Whether he is ready for the show is about more sophisticated (and some less) than that.
-
Compact swing - I don't think he is crazy undersized like Pedroia was (and Pedroia it was undersized with a swing that simply should not work) ... but just his background implies being a fast mover
-
Before looking at sarcasm alert i had a reply here
-
Moncada's potential with the bat is a lot higher. Now Swihart probably won't have to move positions - while he has not been a great catcher the actual evidence is fairly scant - but Moncada's bat projects anywhere. So even if (highly probable) he has to move to a corner (because 2B built like Dez Bryant are for the most part non-existent) he will profile as an all-around threat. He is the one truly untouchable bat.
-
Maybe. Kopech is a little further along, but has a pretty rock solid knucklehead rap sheet. As if often the case - I don't argue the acquisition (you are making a leap of faith here, certainly his work with the cutter shows some reason to believe this is not a fluke - although currently his health is an outlier to the rest of his career) so much as the price. Flags fly forever and whatnot.
-
That place is basically not at Low-A ... I am amazed sometimes that fans don't get this. Winning is a very tangential goal outside of the bigs. Whether a prospect has had a good season or not involves something a bit more intricate than simply getting outs. Scouting the stat line is exactly that ... using minor league numbers (where winning is not a primary goal) to divine characteristics about the player's future in the bigs. The biggest thing for an 18 year old in a full season league (this is true for Devers in Salem as a child for the level) is that they have not been overwhelmed.
-
There is inherent risk in pitchers that young which makes dealing them easier than dealing young position prospects. At the same time - a pitcher striking out almost a batter an inning as the youngest player in all of Low A with 95-99 velocity is pretty darn interesting ... age and performance for level is always noteworthy ... when a team signs a guy for whom the industry brings up "young Pedro" without howls of derisive laughter, you have to pause. I will not many of the posters will snivel at some future point about the weakness of org pitching and where is the ceiling? I know where the ceiling went. I am a bit surprised at the Hulk Smash approach taken with a Top 20 prospect and how little track record it actually brought back. Nobody is untouchable, but a big market has the luxury to keep the high ceiling guys ... especially with a vibrant farm system. This deal makes sense for Boston on a basic level - at the same time, San Diego clearly had to be thinking "you're giving us what??!!!"
-
Hooray for scouting the stat line!
-
it's not his job to make the kiddos happy today - his job is to do best by the franchise. Now he might have done that - but nothing about Pomeranz says "give up one of the best pitching prospects in the minors". Now his improvement and durability might not be dumb luck - but the Red Sox paid a price as if it will stick, and that is a very aggressive assumption to say the least.
-
I like the spirit without liking the target. This sort of price is one I would have preferred on a bigger fish - or a Verlander sneak attack as we had posited in the past.