sk7326
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Everything posted by sk7326
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I agree with you - I am just not educated enough in this to see it. His .440 BABIP is crazy. You back that up to .300 and he suddenly is a .257 hitter ... which is a different deal (although still probably a perfect acceptable starter). Vasquez had a .286 BABIP this year, so his travails were not necessarily influenced by that sort of randomness.
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The metrics have never been spectacular either way. I suspect the view of his baserunning falls into the same bucket as compliments about his scrappiness, toughness and headiness.
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It indicates perhaps that things have not gone well this season on that front. But there are sample size issues at work as this year is an extreme outlier, compared to the rest of his career (where he is basically nothing special, sometimes a little below average, sometimes a bit above). I am mystified at the attempts to put Pedroia out to pasture ... he is still one of best position players in the league.
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The Vasquez question will be the interesting one. He clearly has excellent defensive and framing tools. His game calling (from what evidence there is) was not special, and he has not shown an ability to hit at the big league level. That is a fringy starter/really good 2nd guy. Clearly Leon is the starter if you believe this is for real - and there is no evidence from his prior career that you should. This where the scouts matter - has Leon done something meaningful to change his trajectory.
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Really with the Schwarber and Conforto things, this is not any sort of surprise. Deflect questions about him so you can control the timetable, and then see what happens. I think what is interesting about the discussion is the relationship between the boxscore and the org assessment (or lack thereof). They have been very aggressive moving Benintendi, and more careful with Moncada - and both stances make sense individually for the guy. Now what will happen when Benintendi hits a rut - because this is baseball, and everybody does. Do the Red Sox collectively wet themselves like the Mets have done this season? Now recent history with regard to small sample size reaction is problematic - but I don't think Dombrowski will fall into that. The one thing we know about Dombrowski is that he is driving the train (the decision authority is not as muddled as it has been in prior years).
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Lost year for him - let's hope he bounces back. Either way, selling low on him doesn't make much sense - he is still their best bet at getting a premium player at the C position, although Leon has been outstanding. Get him healthy, see what happens. After all, the bet on Leon turning into a pumpkin eventually is the percentage one.
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His form last year in KC did not give any sort of reassurance. I don't blame the Red Sox for not going after him. And in SF he has thrown fewer fastballs and taken advantage of the numerous cavernous parks there are in the NL West. (yes I know Coors and Arizona are more homerun friendly) A flyball pitcher in the AL East is always worrisome
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If they screw with him the way Collins did to COnforto this season, that is a different kettle of fish.
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The comparison with Drew was more to the point of a guy who is so supernaturally talented that he will always be seen negatively ... even though the guy in front of them is pretty damn good. Drew was a better hitter, although both had good on-base skills, especially with respect to league averages. And Heyward is a superb defensive player - how much that goes into the soup is a fair question. Getting him for 23M (and really it might be a de facto 3 year deal with options and such) per season is a good value. His bat has been remarkably bad this season.
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Top 10ish when the total package is included
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For what he had produced and his age, the deal was kind of a bargain - he has been awful this season. What is funny about Heyward is that his defense and on-base skills have been able to justify his contract while the power has been up and down. (his OPS has had more O, so his overall impact has been solidly above average) You could make some interesting comparisons here with say JD Drew.
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just turned 27 one of the best outfielders in the league the last 3 or 4 seasons ... betting on this year being a fluke seems reasonable
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strikeout rate every bit his career norms ... walk rate has been normal too ... has been location mostly it seems
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The trick in the postseason - let alone getting there - is that there will be a much much quicker hook with the starters. This is not a rotation on current form which can win the World Series - but you get to the secondary question. Can you address that the way the Royals did ... just don't pitch them? Really when you look at this team's ability coming down the stretch, your real guys to watch are Barnes, Ross, Abad, Buchholz. Farrell isn't (or shouldn't) let ERod go through the order more than twice without having his finger on the eject button. That will apply to everybody but Price. But can those swing guys pick up a game in the 5th or 6th and consistently deliver it to the finishers.
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Offense has hit a funk - but also just came from 11 games in pretty pitcher friendly parks. On the bright side, it looks like Benintendi is at least no overwhelmed out there. You can see the .300/.370 sort of potential with 15 HR sort of pop. Of the two, he is not MVP material (that's Moncada), but quality starter who could make a few ASGs? That looks possible. And yes, the Fred Lynn salad is kind of amazing. As I noted - I think the team wants him to see the ball go through the net here ... not hold him back per se, but try to shift some matchups and whatnot so he does not come up here and go 2 for 30 right away. It feels like they have accomplished that, now I think he will play quite a bit more.
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Never - right now the rotation is ... well, there are not better options than these 5. They just gotta do it.
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The data favors the best hitter batting 2nd
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it is - but that means there is no real statistical evidence Vasquez would be better than Leon. And that is fine for now.
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As Kimmi noted, dealing with the media is a big one. Another one is every aspect of playing the right guys. Now clearly there is a part of that which falls under the auspices of on-field. But how do you balance the organizational priorities with the 25 guys in the clubhouse? That stuff is very important. How do you create a clubhouse environment which is about the work? Of course, these are all things which are relevant to real jobs. Management air-dropping Bogaerts into a pennant chase in 2013 is the sort of thing which you entrust to your manager to sort out with the guys who have been chopping wood all season. (obviously this year it is happening again)
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I think a kid could benefit from seeing the ball go through the hoop - so if you can massage matchups to give him some early success, there is nothing wrong with that. I am not saying play him once a week, but starting him as part of a job-share to maximize his chances to succeed early is not a bad idea.
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Vaz' hitting was bad. And the things you would expect from an elite defensive catcher did not bear out in the performance of the rotation. While on one hand Leon has been a crazy small sample fluke (arguably) ... he is also 27 and approximately as likely as Vasquez to actually be a good starter based on empirical evidence. (and since he is clearly a better one on current form, hoorray)
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I was somewhat ambivalent - but I had a sense early this season that he might end the season as one of their 4 best outfielders. There has been some solid recent precedent for quickly moving effective college bats. And I do think there is some human element to a spark in the middle of a slog.
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It's early ... breathe. Not quite at the "annoyed phone call from Dombrowski" stage yet.
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it is a bit of an overheated take. Sox are scoring at the rate last year's Jays did. Could the lineup switch score more? Maybe - but it'd be small.
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The history of moving people from tougher positions to easier ones as they age is vast (Stan Musial played 1B fergawdsakes). That he could not begin to cut it in a position that Ryan Klesko managed to only marginally embarass himself doing is rather amazing. As noted earlier this season, Ian Desmond and Alfonso Soriano were signed and move on the exact same pretense.