sk7326

maybe i am too brash to say i am the leader - but i definitely am a board member

Oh I am the leader of the "automated balls and strikes" movement/cult

I suspect the Braves would have done it gratefully if there was. Reliever are just very very volatile species - it's what makes any large-ish trade for them mildly cringeworthy.

I enjoyed this - sometimes there's a correlation, sometimes there isn't. Also, sometimes it rains.

Of course! But you can say all of this about Vasquez, and between the two Leon is actually hitting the baseball. I'd put it this way - there is precious little evidence that the Red Sox are playing the wrong guy (between Leon and Vasquez) for the near and long term.

Now was Benintendi ready? Who knows - they have given him a lot of responsibility very quickly and he has adjusted. I think this was always possible - the org made their denials, but that's what you do. Maybe they were hard on Beltran and missed out - but he can barely move anymore. I think to address earlier points - while it is fair to wonder whether the treatment of Bradley held him back, I'd counter that Bradley had conclusively proven he can hit minor league pitching. A demotion for him - given what he had to work on - was not going to accomplish anything, aside from giving him a potential sense of senioritis. His adjustments had to take place at the big league level. Benintendi is a different kettle of fish - and as Dojji notes, he will struggle eventually - because he plays baseball for a living, and all baseball players go through those patches. The org bet is that he has the makeup and physical talent to figure that stuff out when it comes up. Everything about his brief minor league career backs that sentiment. What a week with him with the big league club shows to me - fairly conclusively - that he at least physically and skill-wise belongs in the show ... he does not look overmatched. (well, aside from his 2nd career AB in the bottom 9 against a fireballer closer sort)

Moncada was always very very very likely to outgrow 2B anyway.

Oh with Betts I'd absolutely try - how much would it cost to buy a couple of FA years. Answer is a lot - but both sides have some incentives to do it.

And 28th among all position players. It is a bit of a golden age for the position. e.g. not the era of Robby Alomar and a bunch of guys I can barely remember

You miss the point. I used .300 as just an easy basic measure to get a more realistic number and illustrate where future expectations ought to place him. Those things you mentioned help - but empirical evidence suggests it doesn't help that much. Just as important is whether a fielder can get to the location you hit the ball. BABIP is subject to some very large fluctuations - and so when I see a .440 BABIP, I'm going to say "that ain't forever". Let's put it this way - you hit more line drives, you can improve it - but it might not a 1 to 1 thing, or even very close.

True. Now I looked at some of the data on this - there is a weak but positive correlation between line drive and BABIP. There is evidence of some control - but whatever control there is is fairly weak. And generally I think, pitchers have more influence on BABIP than hitters. I certainly think it is clear Leon is better - but what that actually means is a fair question. As Cycles said, .260/.310 or so with good defense is a solid starter at that position.

I think with Leon it is likely both things are true at the same time - that he has figured out some stuff to save his career, and he has been riding some incredible luck.

I never said he was a bottom 10 baserunner - though it is possible that he has had a crappy year on that front. There is a significant difference between someone not being good at it and someone having a rough stretch. I agree with you there. But it is easy to believe he is preternaturally gifted at things like taking the extra base and such, whether or not it's actually true. It's just how sports fans, media and whatnot have been conditioned to see.

He is not going to be a .440 BABIP guy forever. But if you normalize for that, he is still a .250 to .265 hitter which seems plausible - and with his defense is a perfectly good starter.

I agree with you - I am just not educated enough in this to see it. His .440 BABIP is crazy. You back that up to .300 and he suddenly is a .257 hitter ... which is a different deal (although still probably a perfect acceptable starter). Vasquez had a .286 BABIP this year, so his travails were not necessarily influenced by that sort of randomness.

The metrics have never been spectacular either way. I suspect the view of his baserunning falls into the same bucket as compliments about his scrappiness, toughness and headiness.

It indicates perhaps that things have not gone well this season on that front. But there are sample size issues at work as this year is an extreme outlier, compared to the rest of his career (where he is basically nothing special, sometimes a little below average, sometimes a bit above). I am mystified at the attempts to put Pedroia out to pasture ... he is still one of best position players in the league.

The Vasquez question will be the interesting one. He clearly has excellent defensive and framing tools. His game calling (from what evidence there is) was not special, and he has not shown an ability to hit at the big league level. That is a fringy starter/really good 2nd guy. Clearly Leon is the starter if you believe this is for real - and there is no evidence from his prior career that you should. This where the scouts matter - has Leon done something meaningful to change his trajectory.

Really with the Schwarber and Conforto things, this is not any sort of surprise. Deflect questions about him so you can control the timetable, and then see what happens. I think what is interesting about the discussion is the relationship between the boxscore and the org assessment (or lack thereof). They have been very aggressive moving Benintendi, and more careful with Moncada - and both stances make sense individually for the guy. Now what will happen when Benintendi hits a rut - because this is baseball, and everybody does. Do the Red Sox collectively wet themselves like the Mets have done this season? Now recent history with regard to small sample size reaction is problematic - but I don't think Dombrowski will fall into that. The one thing we know about Dombrowski is that he is driving the train (the decision authority is not as muddled as it has been in prior years).

Lost year for him - let's hope he bounces back. Either way, selling low on him doesn't make much sense - he is still their best bet at getting a premium player at the C position, although Leon has been outstanding. Get him healthy, see what happens. After all, the bet on Leon turning into a pumpkin eventually is the percentage one.

His form last year in KC did not give any sort of reassurance. I don't blame the Red Sox for not going after him. And in SF he has thrown fewer fastballs and taken advantage of the numerous cavernous parks there are in the NL West. (yes I know Coors and Arizona are more homerun friendly) A flyball pitcher in the AL East is always worrisome

If they screw with him the way Collins did to COnforto this season, that is a different kettle of fish.

The comparison with Drew was more to the point of a guy who is so supernaturally talented that he will always be seen negatively ... even though the guy in front of them is pretty damn good. Drew was a better hitter, although both had good on-base skills, especially with respect to league averages. And Heyward is a superb defensive player - how much that goes into the soup is a fair question. Getting him for 23M (and really it might be a de facto 3 year deal with options and such) per season is a good value. His bat has been remarkably bad this season.

Top 10ish when the total package is included

For what he had produced and his age, the deal was kind of a bargain - he has been awful this season. What is funny about Heyward is that his defense and on-base skills have been able to justify his contract while the power has been up and down. (his OPS has had more O, so his overall impact has been solidly above average) You could make some interesting comparisons here with say JD Drew.