sk7326

It took until it was late ... and when you actually do get to small samples, some more short sighted changes make sense ... after all there aren't many games left. Indeed the Benoit GS raised questions about the right pitcher against the right guy - granted Ortiz is good.

Oh, Boras all the way if I had a chance ...

He doesn't have a second pitch ... that means there is not the raw stuff. The issue with Joba was that the Yankees refused to commit one way or another. It has the smell of Torre winning a tussle with Cashman. (or George breaking said tie) Bring him up for the stretch is fine - worked well for David Price. It was the rest of it which was stupid.

I meant the top of the 9th!

Don't have to choose - and Betts comes a year later anyway. It's a good problem to have. Team's starting 8 is in very good shape.

The suitors I don't know - and the salary was in line with the market value (a bit on the high side of normal, but whatever). There are very very few FA deals which are "value" because of the winners curse thing - i.e. how a high bidder in an auction is almost always "overpaying".

No. Once Leon goes into the game, the DH goes poof. The pitcher bats in the catcher's spot then.

I share your annoyance - we almost stole a game where we rested Pedroia, Papi and somehow had two catchers in the lineup at the same time. That would have been really good to get. Basically if they can get the split here, they've done their job. It's the next 16 games which will be particularly important in determining their fate.

Xander's struggles show that he is not at the super elite level yet - just really darn good. $30M a year for him is not at all unreasonable - the Sox don't have to pay it due to lack of leverage Bogaerts has for now. But honestly, a 5/120 extension would be sensible for both sides. I expect them to try to rope in him or Betts for that sort of deal this offseason.

There was a fair basis for it - he made tons of contact, he had a spray chart and inside out swing which made it look like he could do Boggs-ish things with the Monstah. He also was young enough that you were buying less decline than your average premium FA. Obviously none of this worked - but anybody who said the Sox should have seen this level of disaster coming are being disingenuous.

This - also with his age and his spray charts - there was a reasonable (i.e. not one you had to agree with, but one which was defensible without sounding crazy) basis for optimism.

Uehara returning would allow a lot of this stuff to fall into place. Also will be interesting is Brandon Workman is in a position to be a September call-up.

Also the youngest of the top UFAs.

I am not sure what the answer was. Barnes has pitched more - but you do want to balance things. Ziegler starting the 8th also would have been okay - although he has had his issues also. Ultimately the dude has to perform. Funny thing is, in that game, the biggest tactical howler I saw was Ausmus actually pitching to Betts in one of the rare situations where the intentional walk made sense - and somehow survived it.

Sigh ... quietly amazed they did not put Betts on there ... sometimes weird tactics work

What the evidence tells me is that Leon can actually hit big league pitching, and there is a .260-.270 sort of hitter there, which combined with plus defense is a legit starter and not that far away from All-Star level. What he is producing now is MVP level stuff - and as such, I am comfortable betting the under going forward.

When Young returns, he will probably go back to the usage that was intended ... start against lefties - and maybe a few other starts sprinkled in if the team goes through significant times without facing lefties.

The increased LD numbers explains some of it - but it could not explain all of it ... I remain a skeptic, and constantly happy to be wrong.

Gold Gloves are entirely useless - though I am happy Pedroia has won them before. Cy Young - I think there is a decent chance Britton wins the Cy Young. There is not an obvious dominant starter out there, and voters have historically gone to dominant relievers in seasons like this. Now it is utterly bonkers that Britton should be a viable candidate - but there you go. AL MVP - It's a three or four man race, and is going to stay that way the final 40 games of the season and it's close enough that the rest of the season really has to play out to create any meaningful separation. Trout is probably the dark horse. While he is still the league's best player - MVPs on godawful teams are rare. Yes, the voters are fundamentally voting on the competence of his teammates in this worldview - but we know it happens. So that leaves Donaldson, Altuve or Betts in some order. I think Altuve is probably the favorite - the Astros might not make the playoffs, but they are good. Altuve has been an emerging force for a while and has leapt into true superstardom this season. It is a good story. Betts has obviously gone crazy since the break, and could very easily wrest this away Josh Hamilton style in September. Voters love that stuff. The latter applies to Donaldson as well - but being the defending MVP, voting for him is not as fun as voting for someone new. David Ortiz stands as an even darker dark horse - but a viable one - for obvious reasons.

Depending on the approximation method you use, based on 133 ABs, there is only a 2.5% chance Leon's "true" level is below .305. (using BA as a binomial variable - if you want to get into the math) Once again, the spectacular - and unsustainable - .459 BABIP is big here. However, you cannot undervalue what he has actually done - which is what the numbers actually convey - basically if he had a full catcher season of this, he would be firmly in the MVP race.

With lineups I think it is really - some players care about where they bat, others don't. And if you can placate the first group without doing something stupid (like bat Papi 8th for instance) - then ultimately it doesn't really matter. Why has the Red Sox lineup clicked lately? It is because they are good - and have been this good all season. The fallow period out West and against the Yankees was just a SSS exception. And the 11 game road trip were all in famously low scoring ballparks. The Sox are going to have one more West Coast swing through Oakland and San Diego - and they could have trouble scoring runs, even though both teams stink ... because of where they are playing.

True in a sense - but I actually agreed with Farrell's logic here. If the team is going to go through a long stretch without seeing a lefty starter (which it did early) you can't just cryogenically freeze Chris Young until then - he needed some reps even if it was suboptimal in a numbers sense. Just can't be silly about it.

That part is true - but there is not a rush to get things done by August 31. And it makes more sense NOT to add Moncada that way, because it still allows the Red Sox to make a small waiver deal (perhaps for another relief arm)

I don't think Barnes in the 9th improves that situation over Kimbrel. I definitely don't think Kimbrel would be an improvement over Barnes in the mid-innings.

1. Me neither 2. If you remember what a dumpster fire the end of that season was ... I wanted the perfect game. (indeed there would plenty of time to register the key wins over the Yankees)