sk7326

I don't think so - but you need to know what the stats are measuring. The field of measuring baseball continues to evolve (and there are probably 30 different versions of these stats which the public doesn't see) - it is all just additional planks on the body of knowledge. So "contact" is one of those places where the industry is just learning more. It's just trying to get at the inputs - especially the stuff which the olden days never had the chance to measure ... exactly what is hard contact ... and exactly what is good defense. Is pitching 90% of the game, really? What correlates most with winning is scoring more runs than the other guy ... what correlates with that is generating outs on one end and preventing outs on the other. Now, I think the idea of how patience at the plate helps prevent outs has been largely covered. But what characteristics of batted balls reduce the likelihood of generating an out - and more importantly, what part of it is controllable? And then, once you figure that out - is it teachable, or is it something that has to be scouted. (patience/approach is one of those where the common knowledge shifted from "teach" to "scout" because of analytics) The new stats COULD be better - but there is still a lot of noise, and you have to know what you are looking at. For instance, wOBA (or wRC+) is probably the best one-stop stat for offense. The pitching ones are much tougher - because the amount that a pitcher can control batted balls is very much in the air ... it seems like some pitchers can, but it still is very noisy.

He caught in high school too but not full time. You had a potential Buster Posey sort of talent - it was worth looking into. Sadly, yeah the ankle can't do it ... but the bat and approach look big league ready. Maybe not 25 HR but solid on-base and possibly decent power. He is definitely worth looking at for 1B.

The idea is that nobody is going to pay him $100M. Look at what happened to Encarnacion - industry is getting smarter on that thing. But if you can get Hosmer for $12M-$15M a year, it is an interesting idea, and has more ceiling than say Moreland.

.355 OBP with a 112 RC+ ... (insert OPS flaws here) and plus defense (an area he legitimately improved). The warning sounds abounded with injury history and age ... but the 2013 version of Ellsbury was one of the best outfielders in the league.

It was his 2nd outstanding season in 3. He hit really well in 2013 - just without the homeruns. And was a plus centerfielder. I enjoy the inconsistent application of shortstop standards to center field, a premium defensive position.

Hosmer has always been a bit of a tease - power which could arrive but largely hasn't. But I am all for signing him - should be cheaper and with some upside. Remember the deal Encarnacion had to settle for - industry is getting smarter in a lot of ways.

If he could be healthy that would change things. He was the league's best non-pitcher in 2011, and wayyy up there in 2013. It would have been an easy call if he were 27 and had some history of being healthy.

He was their best position player in 2013 (a 6 win player) ... and a legitimate downballot MVP that year. But his age, and the infrequency of those sorts of results, plus the likelihood of Bradley being fine made it an easy call.

I don't think anybody thought we should have matched that. That signing had a lot of red flags. I am surprised Ellsbury has not taken advantage of the RF porch as much.

This is not college football - nobody has to graduate blah blah blah ... and it is fair game to question budget limits especially those times when management can whine about them (oh they would never do that) Great defense at SS is awesome - but so is terrific offense. And the Red Sox run prevention has been excellent - their defense has been excellent ... Bogaerts has not been the anchor, but clearly it has not been an issue either. We know power is the last thing to show up often, and he has shown it. It's about whether you believe it's there - given his age, the odds that it clicks is very good. And even if it doesn't - he's a quality starter at a tough position to find them.

I floated this - and the logic is simple ... it's about your feelings about Bogaerts relative to the other 29 teams. Bogaerts is a good player - and has had a couple of "very good player" seasons recently. He is still young with high likelihood of improving. He will probably never be great defensively - but he is clearly fine. I don't want to trade him. However, his FA is the soonest - and if the team's impression of him is that he might be a 2-3 win player going forward ... and never have consistent power, say ... does it make sense to turn him around for a big haul while a big haul is possible. (say with 2 years of control left) This assumes you can staff SS at an above average level while this goes on ... If you think there is more there and he will figure it out - which is completely reasonable, and I am not sure I don't believe it myself - then there might not be a good match deal-wise. Much of this logic applies to Bradley too - at a smaller scale.

I meant that in reverse - Judge is a rookie ... that he would hit a rough patch, or start to have trouble 2nd time around - his issues since the break help confirm he is very good, but human. We'll see if he can figure this out.

I think getting Betts for his prime is common sense - the numbers, who cares ultimately? If it is a priority the team can make it so.

Listen, the team has run its ship well. All I was pointing out was ... if this team is making Tampa Bay type of decisions with regards to re-signing stars in their prime, then we as fans of a high high revenue team have a right to not be on board with that. And when I see posters rack and stack future payroll and then say - well the tax limit is $X so they only have $Y to spend - that is just not true. They can spend more than $Y if the right guy came up - and as supporters of a high revenue (among the 3 highest) it's something fans can rightly demand.

Also, as it turns out - he's a rookie.

Grateful? For the prices they charge it's the least he can do ... I am eternally grateful for the 3 titles and the competent franchise management. But let's not go overboard.

There is no meaningful debt ... the big hitch, stadium debt service is the sort of thing which the Red Sox don't have to actually contend with. Fenway, like Wrigley is a license to print money.

Over the life of the contract it has been a significant win ... now it's more neutral. Pedroia was a 5 win player last year, one of the best infielders in the league - which in isolation is well well worth that salary. It's life with a massive contract - the early parts pay for the late ones. Altuve did not have FA rights when he signed his deal - you EXPECT those to be discounts.

We are on the same page - it is an internal limit! So a legitimate answer for "how do we pay for Betts" is for the very rich kazillionaires and their exceedingly lucrative franchise to increase the limit.

Yes. NBA is there now. Just hope that it is (relatively) tasteful.

All of those 3 teams were awesome - that we did not see it coming was because we are Red Sox fans conditioned to not believe. But seriously - the 2003 team was arguably the league's best team. Entering 2004, we KNEW they could win the whole damn thing. It became unexpected after that 19-8 loss. Just like the 2007 team became unexpected after the Guardians took a 3-1 lead. The 2013 team was the best team in the league from wire to wire. There is no such thing as a baseball team which is guaranteed a win - even the biggest mismatch in a series is still 60-40 tops.

See Lancelloti, Rick or Davis, Crash He'll be up in September and there will be postseason roster spots if he earns it

There are 30 teams - contending is hard - so if you can get to the tournament you gotta do it. I think there are limits - but extending stars in their prime is not one of them. As Don Draper noted, "That's what the money's for!"

I misinterpreted the CC - since I think of the Yankees pitcher .. who of course was very much worth the original contract he got. (not the resign after he opted out)

top pitching and defense ... they have been excellent in 2 of the 3 phases. And - as we've noted all year - there is reason to think there is upside still offensively.