FredLynn

It would be a coup if we could manage to keep both of those guys at the top of our lineup. They are dynamite there. Bradley is an untested rookie, and I do not see any other OF who are as good as Ellsbury on the market, including Choo. Unfortunately, I do not think that will happen, not with Boras representing him.

Not trying to put Ellsbury down at all. I think he is a very good player and I would love to have him return to the team-IF the price is right. I am quite sure the management has already had some thoughts about what their bottom line will be, and as others have said, we will probably be outbid by some team looking for an impact player, which Ellsbury is. The purpose of the original comparison is just to draw attention to the fact that a guy who has at least as good a track record over the past four years got a deal for $13M for three years just last year. I do not want the Sox to overpay Ellsbury either in money OR in years-especially with his injury history. And I don't think they will do that.

We certainly are the favorites at this point, and rightfully so. Whichever AL team gets to move on will be tough, but their SP rotation will be out of whack because of today's game; ours is set. Our offense is better than that of anyone else, and perhaps most importantly, we have home field advantage. While the odds of us winning it all are still probably less than 50%, they are better than those of anyone else at this stage. Its going to be a fun ride.

More on Ellsbury and his upcoming contract negotiations: Lets consider the last four years in terms of games played and OPS. Player A: 147/.756, 132/.847, 154/.704, 122/.801 Player B: 18/.485, 158/.928, 74/.682, 134/.781 Player A is a bit faster; player B has a MUCH better throwing arm. There is just a two year age difference. Player A costs $13M and is signed for just two more years; Player B is likely to cost $18M or more over at least six years. Which is the better deal?

Got it. I thought I must have misinterpreted what you wrote. That said, do you really trust Tazawa vs Longoria? Farrell could have played it that way, but Breslow is also a good choice: our best RP (outside of our closer) vs their best hitter. Hard to fault Farrell for allowing Breslow to remain in the game IMO.

Actually you are right Username. Breslow does have a noticeable platoon split this year. He has been MUCH better vs RHH (OPSa of .581) vs LHH (.704). In addition, he has pitched to more RHH than LHH this year (135 v 102). For his career his OPSa splits are nearly identical: .644 v 642. He gets hitters out from both sides of the plate, and he has been our second most effective RP for a long time. I think it was a good decision by Farrell. Maybe I am misreading your post.

They are exactly as good as their record says they are. They are the best team in baseball right now; they led all of baseball this year in runs scored and OPS, and their ERA+ was fourth in the AL-good enough certainly to win the WS. They have a bona fide ace in Buchholz whose ERA has been below 2 all season and won 97 games even though their ace missed three months and even though they lost two closers for the year. Lester and Lackey have both pitched like #2 SP this year. Their turnaround from last year is truly extraordinary. I have been trying to find the record for such a turnaround, but I can't find it. The 28 win turnaround has to be close to that record I would think. Yeah, they are that good. And frankly, although it would be disappointing if they failed to at least make it to the World Series this year, the season cannot be regarded in any other way than a smashing success.

Crawford's contract with us is generally regarded as one of the worst Epstein ever concocted. I understand what you are saying about him not being able to handle the Boston atmosphere; he couldn't. On the other hand, his numbers are remarkably similar to Ellsbury's in terms of age, attributes, and production at the time the contract came up. Do you give an $18- $20M contract to a guy whose career OPS is below .800 and who despite his speed has a very weak throwing arm, not to mention the time he misses on the field (whatever the reason is)? I wouldn't. I would structure his contract based on playing time so the if he is on the field a sufficient amount of time he can earn what top OF like Pence earn: about $18M a year. I would offer him no more than $15M guaranteed, maybe a little less, with incentives, for four years with a team option for one more year. There is no reason for the Red Sox to assume liability for his frequent absences (playing just 55% of the games in the past four years is a real red flag) from the playing field. The player with that sort of history should do it. Will this offer get it done with Boras? Probably not. No player is irreplaceable, not even Ellsbury.

Ellsbury is a weapon Fred, no doubt. I would like to see him resigned too-if the price is right. He is, however, not the type of guy you build your team around. His career OPS is .789. In comparison, Carl Crawford has a career OPS that is similar: .771. Crawford signed what is now generally regarded as a poor contract for the Red Sox in 2011 when he was 30 years old: 7 years at just over $20M a year. Ellsbury is now 30 years old as well. Both are fast OF with poor throwing arms, and both have a history of missing a significant amount of time due to injury, Ellsbury having played roughly 55% of the games he could have played in over the last four years. Would you give Ellsbury the same contract Crawford got? How about a contract like that of Hunter Pence ( 5 years at $18M per year) whose career OPS is a bit higher than Ellsbury's and who has been healthier? For my part, the only way I would give Ellsbury a five year contract (and I would not go beyond five years) worth what Pence is getting is if it is incentive laden based on playing time. I certainly would not consider giving him a Crawford contract. We made that mistake once and should not repeat it, thought that is likely what Boras is going to be asking.

The Sox should be able to handle the Rays. Its the Tigers that are going to be our major obstacle. They lead the league in ERA and have a higher OPS than us. To compete with them we need a healthy and effective Buchholz.

Lester's ERA from April 24 to Aug 2 was 5.18-thats over three months. The rest of the time he has been excellent. I would not call him "reliable"; I think he has been inconsistent, though his overall body of work this year has been good.

It will be exciting to see how he performs on the Big Stage. That opportunity may come sooner than you think if WMB doesn't start performing. As of right now he is hitting at .199/.635 and ranks last among all AL 3B in fielding percentage. It will be much easier to compete for a playoff spot if our 3B is helping the team. I suspect the FO has a time frame in mind to start trying Bogaerts at 3B with an eye towards giving him a shot there if Middlebrooks' struggles continue.

Well Jung, the PeskyPole blog is insinuating that Middlebrooks is playing with two broken ribs and managed to convince the Sox staff to lie about it so he wouldn't have to answer questions about it every night. This directly contradicts what Farrell told us ("there are no broken ribs"). Personally, I think Farrell is more credible, but who knows? For whatever reason I am not being allowed to post the link to the blog, but here are the relevant paragraphs: The Red Sox have dropped six of their last seven and the bandwagon is quickly emptying out. Bad luck, sloppy play, poor pitching and injuries have been the main issues. One of those injured is Will Middlebrooks. He is hurt much more than he or the Red Sox have led you to believe. An inside source has told me that Middlebrooks has two broken and separated ribs. The third baseman was and is hell bent on playing through it. Apparently he was able to convince the Red Sox to let him play but also to keep the details of his injury quiet. Middlebrooks is the ultimate gamer and feels the team needs him out there. The Red Sox do not have many options to replace him at this point. Middlebrooks wanted to keep it quiet because he did not want to be questioned on a nightly basis about playing with two broken ribs

Just found this. No rib fractures by any imaging study: Middlebrooks is day-to-day Permalink|Comments (0)Posted by Peter Abraham, Globe Staff May 8, 2013 02:47 PM By Peter Abraham, Globe Staff In his weekly interview with WEEI this afternoon, Red Sox manager John Farrell said third baseman Will Middlebrooks does not have any rib fractures and is day to day. Middlebrooks is not in the lineup this evening. Catcher David Ross, who bruised his quad, also is day-to-day. Middlebrooks and Ross collided chasing a foul ball Tuesday night. No roster moves are imminent, Farrell said.

Someone on another board is saying that WMB has two broken ribs, but failed to produce a link. He claims his sources are sound. After that, Speir tweeted that the CT scan failed to show any breaks and that he is day to day. It is possible that the CT was negative but an MRI or bone scan showed the break. Guess I'll just wait for the official announcement.

Drew is an established proven MLB player who missed some of spring training and got behind. I think he will be fine, though not spectacular, both in the field and at the plate. If Middlebrooks were simply in a slump but had a sound approach at the plate I would not be so concerned, but he is having a real problem with offspeed pitches on the outer half of the plate. Until he solves that opposing pitchers will exploit him.

I sure hope so. But watching WMB's approach at the plate is worrisome. He has a hole in his swing: he cannot lay off outside off speed pitches and routinely fails to make contact with them. Admittedly, its a tough pitch to handle, but he has to learn to swing only at strikes most of the time and fight off those tough pitches. I hope he can solve this soon.

I believe that there is a hitch in exercising that option. I could be wrong, but I think that his luxury tax hit is much larger than the league minimum if we do that. Maybe someone with more knowledge about the intricacies of his contract could elucidate this.

How long should we keep Lavarnway, who has hit at every level of baseball he was given a fair shot at, in the minors if Salty continues to struggle? I think that's a fair question.

Tough series against the A's coming up. Their pitching is better than what they have shown so far this year, thought their hitting, which currently leads the league in runs scored, is going to settle down to lower tier eventually. If we can manage two of three then 17-8 or 18-7 is not out of the question.

Its easy to look up Bard's minor league stats on baseballreference.com. So far at Portland at the AA level he has pitched 8 innings and has an ERA of 4.50 and a WHIP of 1.375. He has four walks and four K's. Doesn't look like Daniel Bard is going to help the Red Sox any time soon, unfortunately.

Got it. I do not necessarily agree however that until a player has played for the Red Sox one cannot form a reasonable opinion about the wisdom of acquiring a player as long as there is some logic and statistics to back up that opinion. The acquisition of Carl Crawford is an example of this. Many people did not think he was a good match for the team and felt that his career OPS of .781 with the Rays was not worth the money he was to be paid in Boston and that that money was better spend elsewhere. Crawford had not played a single inning for the team but reasonable opinions about him abounded. The same can be said of Victorino and Dempster.

I am not judging anyone right now. I like what I see so far, but only 10% of the season has been played. You can use some statistical analysis to make an educated guess about how the major league acquisitions might perform for the team, but in many ways Boston is different than other markets. If you are referring to Lavarnway or some of our other prospects you are right: until they get a fair shot, assuming they deserve it based on their minor league performances, we cannot accurately judge how they might perform in the ML. The problem with some of them, like Lavarnway, is that he will most likely never get a shot at it. So is it better to let him wallow in our minor league system or should we package him and try to get help at a position we are weak at?

Alone, you are probably right. Packaged with other prospects its possible we could harvest a good pitching prospect. Lavarnway is such a prospect. He has hit at every minor league level he has played in and has not received a fair shot with the Red Sox (and probably never will) because he is blocked by Saltalamacchia. As long as Salty is here, Lavs will not be brought up. He is better than a backup catcher. And Vasquez is highly rated by some as having good potential at catcher as well.

Its April 21. Isn't it a little early to pass judgement on Ben's offseason moves? Both Dempster and Victorino have certainly exceeded expectations, but come July when half the season has been played, who knows what their numbers will look like. Or in Victorino's case, how will obtaining him look in the third year of his contract? For my part, I am just going to sit back and enjoy the ride. Judging this team's parts will take more time than three weeks of a six month season.