Orange Juiced

A "b" level prospect isn't a s*** prospect. It's a good prospect. Not a top-3 or top-5, but not what you described either. Like I said, it might not be enough to get it done, but it's certainly not as you say.

Who ever suggested that? I suggested a pretty good prospect and Beckett. Might take more than that, but nobody suggested a crappy prospect.

One idea is that you trade Beckett and a prospect (B-level) for Josh Johnson. That assumes, of course, that Beckett would sign off on the deal (10/5 guy and all). Johnson is a potential ace, and is a few years younger. Both have injury histories. Johnson makes less, but that's why the Sox would have to throw in a pretty good prospect. Johnson/Lester/Buchholz is a nice 1-2-3.

IMO (and I'm sure many here share this viewpoint), we can now turn the page from 2012 and focus on 2013. They're toast. Time to move forward. That means using the rest of this season to prepare for next year. First, the contract situation. Players Under Control for 2013 Gonzalez (21m) Crawford (20m) Lackey (15.25m) Beckett (15.75m) Pedroia (10m) Buchholz (5.5m) Lester (11.62m) Iglesias (2.06m) Ellsbury (arb) Bailey (arb) Punto (1.5m) - WHY!?!?!? Salty (arb) Sweeney (arb) Bard (arb) Aceves (arb) Aviles (arb) Miller (arb) Tazawa (arb) Morales (arb) Hill (arb) Melancon (pre-arb) Atchison (arb) Mortensen (pre-arb) Doubront (pre-arb) Kalish (pre-arb) Carpenter (pre-arb) Lavarnway (pre-arb) Stewart (pre-arb) Ciriaco (pre-arb) Middlebrooks (pre-arb) Nava (pre-arb) Gomez (pre-arb) Valencia (arb) Players not under control for 2013 Matsuzaka Ortiz Ross Padilla Podsednik Cook Here are some things you need to find out, in no particular order: (1) Is Jon Lester back to his normal self? If he is, he's a terrific pitcher and a guy you want on your team. I do not think he's an "ace", though his average for the past four years (from 2008-2011) sure screams "hey, if I'm not an ace, I'm damned close!". 16-8 record, 203 ip, 3.33 era, 1.24 whip, 8.7 k/9 Durable, downright nasty at times, those are very good numbers, especially in the AL East. Just to make the comparison, here's CC Sabathia's numbers his first three years with the Yankees, on average: 20-8 record, 235 ip, 3.18 era, 1.19 whip, 8.0 k/9 So give the edge to CC, but not by a lot, which is somewhat surprising. If Lester is *not* back to his normal self, then he needs to go. This last 6 weeks are a referendum on Jon Lester for 2013. (2) What are you going to do with Jacoby Ellsbury? Is the plan to try to re-sign him after he becomes a FA after 2013? Is the plan to keep him for 2013 to make one last run and then let him go after that? Or is it time to begin exploring possible trade partners? In any case, it's important that he play well for the last 6 weeks. If nothing else, you hope he regains his 2011 form so that he becomes a massive trade chip. (3) What do you have in Iglesias? Is he the SS of the future or not? You have Bogaerts who is rising with a bullet. He may have, in the minds of some Sox brass, already surpassed Iglesias, but either way, it's important to know what you have in him. He's hitting .269/.321/.309/.631 for Pawtucket this season with his usual insanely good defense. Let's say a reasonable comp is Ozzie Smith in his early days. Ozzie was, obviously, a defensive genius, one of the best of all time. Everything I've read about Iglesias is that he truly is in the discussion with Ozzie defensively. Unfortunately, he's also at the same level offensively as a young Ozzie Smith. Well, let's see if that still helps the Red Sox. Ozzie's first four years featured these batting lines: .258/.311/.312/.623, 82 ops+ .211/.260/.262/.522, 48 ops+ .230/.313/.276/.589, 71 ops+ .222/.294/.256/.549, 62 ops+ I mean, truly horrific offensive performance. What Ozzie *did* give you was great SB ability (40, 28, 57, and 22 sb in those four years), and superlative defense. As a result, even with those awful offensive numbers, Ozzie gave the Cardinals WARs of: 3.0, 1.4, 4.9, and 0.9. As he got older, he matured as a hitter and really gave them tremendous production in all phases of the game (not power, obviously, but in total offense, defense, and baserunning). Can Iglesias be what the early Ozzie Smith was? One huge difference between Iglesias and Ozzie is that Iglesias doesn't really steal bases. In 89 games this year he's stolen 13 (just 3 CS). As I mentioned above, Ozzie stole a lot of bases, and those extra bases really helped his value. But is it possible that Iglesias can give the Sox +1 to +3 WAR even with that crappy offense? I guess it is, yeah. May as well start finding out. Bring the kid up and see what he does at the major league level. (4) Decide what to do with Beckett. I am somewhat of a believer in the odd/even year thing with him. I don't know why it's that way, but the pattern is striking. That means that 2013 should be a good year for him. I would like to move him but his value right now is *so* low. I wonder if he'll bounce back and then the Sox trade him after 2013. Interesting question. I just want to see him get straightened out over these last 6 weeks. (5) See what the kids have. This means sitting Aviles and Valencia, and letting Crawford get his surgery, like tomorrow. Valencia is the kind of guy that is intriguing, as last year he hit 15 hr and drove in 72 runs for Minnesota at age 26. But he had an awful .294 obp and just 86 ops+. He's 27, so I don't think he qualifies as a "kid". He did come in 3rd in the ROY race in 2010, so he does have some potential. But he's not here to play 3b - that job is Middlebrooks', so I think Valencia plays in AAA next year. I let Iglesias play SS, Ciriaco play 3b, Lavarnway play the majority of time at C, Ross at DH, and some combination of Kalish, Brentz, and Bradley Jr. patrol LF and RF. The minor league season will end at the end of August, so may as well give them a month in Boston with the big club. Of course, the flip side with Brentz and Bradley is that adding them to the 40-man roster starts their arbitration clock, so maybe you don't want to do that. I might even bring up Alex Wilson and Zach Stewart to pitch a bunch of innings in September. Who knows...maybe Stewart is pretty good after all, and Wilson could be ready for the majors for 2013. Worth taking a look. It's essentially evaluation and try-out time for the 2013 Red Sox. At least it would be if I was running the team.

The Pythagorean W-L (predicted W-L based on runs scored and allowed) has the Sox at 64-58, not great, but certainly better than their current 59-63.

Well, over that 14-game stretch, which I considered to be essentially make-or-break for the Sox, here was the final tally: - Record: 5-9 (.357) - Runs scored: 68 (4.86) - take away that one 14-run outburst and it's 54 over 13 games (4.15) - Runs allowed: 67 (4.78) - so they ended up outscoring their opponents despite a .357 win percentage - Record at start of stretch: 53-52 - Record at end of stretch: 58-61 (and now they've lost 2 of 3 to NY, putting them at 59-63) - # of players going on the DL: 4 (Middlebrooks, Doubront, Padilla, Nava) - Josh Beckett stats over that stretch: 3 g (0-2 record), 16.1 ip, 21 h, 18 er, 7 bb, 10 k, 9.92 era, 1.71 whip, 5.5 k/9 - just gruesome numbers - Standings at the start of this stretch: Sox were 3.5 out of the WC. Now they're 7.5 out of the WC. Oh, and to top it off, we have text-gate and let's-hold-a-meeting-with-ownership-to-vent-about-the-manager-gate. What a wonderful job by the Red Sox during the most important stretch of the season. Good job, good effort.

The pattern is striking. I have no idea why it is that way, but it's remarkable.

Last 4 games: 27.2 ip, 2.93 era, 0.98 whip, 8.8 k/9 Just a blip on the radar or has he gotten himself back on track for good?

After the first time or two through it wouldn't matter, as they end up getting all jumbled up anyway due to rainouts, injuries, etc. But Buchholz is the best pitcher of the group at this point, so yeah, I guess.

The first part of your statement is why I am perfectly ok with the Red Sox taking a long-term approach to build a fun and exciting winner. I'm fine with them selling off a bunch of veterans and acquiring quality prospects. In three years, I would love to watch a team that featured: C - Lavarnway 1b - Gonzalez (he ain't going anywhere) 2b - Pedroia 3b - Middlebrooks SS - Bogaerts LF - Crawford CF - Bradley, Jr. RF - Brentz Subs - Jacobs, Swihart, etc. SP - Buchholz, Barnes, Britton, Workman, and hopefully a young stud that they acquire as a prospect that emerges RP - Wilson, Bailey, Aceves, Doubront, Owens, Bard (assuming they get him fixed) That team wouldn't cost a lot of money, it would be brimming with talent, and there are a bunch of exciting players there. Plus, it always seems more fun to root for kids that have come up through the system. So deal away Lester, Beckett, Lackey, Ellsbury, and Saltalamacchia and get back a bunch of quality prospects that you could add to the mix above. I think it would be a lot of fun rooting for that bunch.

Just for giggles, let's talk about Felix and what it would take for the Red Sox to get him. Some things we need to understand. First, pretty much *every* other team in baseball would want a shot at him, if it was known that he was available. That's a lot of competition, and it would drive the price up considerably. And second, Seattle isn't going to take back a contract like Beckett or Lackey or Crawford or anything stupid like that. If they move Felix it's for a huge pile of future pieces or current MLB talent that is young and cheap. That rules out Ellsbury too, because he's going to get very expensive very quickly, and Seattle might not be able to keep him around anyway. Fortunately, they have needs pretty much everywhere: SS, OF, SP. So here's one idea: Sox give: Kalish, Barnes, Iglesias, Brentz, Bard (Seattle would hope to get him straightened out) Mariners give: Hernandez Iglesias fills their hole at SS. Barnes gives them a young potential stud SP, Kalish and Brentz move into OF positions, and Bard is there as a flier, as Seattle hopes that their ballpark and their staff can turn him around. If he doesn't pan out, fine. If he does, it's a HUGE addition to the deal. Now, if you're the Red Sox, do you do that deal? I would, actually, even though it is a TON to give up and they'd be taking on an awful lot of money with Felix. But then they'd have the undisputed ace that everyone wants, and around whom you can build a starting pitching staff. Suddenly Buchholz, Lester, Doubront, and Morales (or Lackey) look a lot better following Hernandez. But that's the kind of deal it would take to get King Felix.

Hey, maybe they'll drop so far they get a top 3-4 pick and that guy turns out to be a guy like Trevor Bauer. That wouldn't be so bad.

Through four games he had the following numbers: 2-2, 3.72 era, 1.45 whip, 8.8 k/9 The last start in that four-game stretch was this, against the White Sox: 7.0 ip, 6 h, 3 r, 2 er, 1 bb, 6 k That's not indicative of a guy who was falling apart. That's indicative of a guy who is starting to click as a starting pitcher. Why he *then* fell apart I don't know. He ultimately fell off a cliff in his last start on June 3, but even in his two starts prior to that, he wasn't too bad: 5.1 ip, 5 h, 2 r, 2 er, 4 bb, 2 k, W 5.1 ip, 5 h, 2 r, 2 er, 2 bb, 4 k, W TOT: 10.2 ip, 10 h, 4 r, 4 er, 6 bb, 6 k, 3.38 era, 1.49 whip, 5.1 k/9 Not great, but again, not terrible. That's a useful starting pitcher - certainly better than most of the slop they have going these days. After that he had just a horrific outing, however, and that seemed to do him in completely. In the 9 games between his awful first start and his horrific last start, he put up this line: 48.1 ip, 43 h, 23 r, 22 er, 30 bb, 26 k, 4.10 era, 1.51 whip, 4.8 k/9 The big concern is the whip and the k/9, but a 4.10 era would be the best among all Red Sox starters this year. So could they use a guy putting up those numbers? Absolutely. Again, he wasn't great this year at all....far from it. But he did do some pretty solid things and wasn't falling off a cliff. At least you would never have thought that after four games. He seemed to really have found something there.

Ok, works for me.

Red Sox record: 2010: 89-73, 3rd place 2011: 90-72, 3rd place 2012: 57-59, 4th place TOTAL: 236-204 (.536) That's not awful, but for a $170 million payroll, you'd expect more than that. Since July 31, 2011, this team has played 172 games. They've won 81 and lost 91, for a winning percentage of .470. We can blame the manager, we can blame the GM, the ownership, the players, whomever - it's a crapfest from top to bottom. But in the end, what they really have, folks, is a pretty mediocre team. Period. I wish it was different, but the facts are the facts.

Sure seems to be this year. But yeah, as I have said before, this is the most unlikeable Red Sox team I can ever remember. Top to bottom, a total crapfest.

A couple of things. First, Bailey is due to come off the DL and needs to be placed on the 40-man roster, I believe. Moving Shoppach clears that roster space. Second, they want Lavarnway up and playing, and Shoppach was just taking up his space. I'd rather them have traded Salty for something bigger, but moving Shoppach for a PTBNL (who sometimes is a good player but in this case is almost certainly insignificant) is probably the right play here.

The same DLowe who, in his last 12 appearances for Cleveland, made Aaron Cook look like Cy Young. Just to refresh everyone's memory, the reason Lowe was released is because he was pitching like the worst pitcher in the world, putting up this line over those last 12 games: 12 g, 60.1 ip, 91 h, 63 r, 59 er, 27 bb, 26 k, 8.80 era, 1.96 whip, 3.8 k/9 I mean, that is hideous. There is a reason why the Guardians cut him and why the Red Sox didn't pick him up. And yet, does it really surprise anyone that he started off pitching well for the frickin' Yankees?

Well, I do not want to just give players away and get nothing in return. If you buy the Beckett odd/even year pattern (and it's a striking pattern, to be honest, one that's held up his entire career), then you expect him to be good next year. Trading him now will get the Sox almost nothing in return, *and* they'll almost certainly have to eat most or all of his salary in the process. I don't think you want to trade Buchholz. Lester is moveable, I'm sure, but the guy is coming around and has been too good for his entire career to think he's toast. Ok, maybe you can add a better starter than a Lackey, Doubront, or Morales, fine. But who are you going to get? Here's a list from Cot's: Gavin Floyd (option) Zach Greinke Tim Hudson Dan Haren (option) Jake Peavy (option) Ervin Santana (option) James Shields (option) Shawn Marcum Anibal Sanchez All the guys with options probably will be picked up by their respective teams. You could go get a Tim Hudson or a Greinke, sure. Both will cost a pretty penny, and the Sox seem to be right up against the luxury tax threshold, which it looks like they're not going to cross. If they could deal Beckett away and get a ton of salary relief, and then add a Hudson, sure, maybe you think about something like that. He's pitched well in the AL before so I think he can handle it. But he's getting up there in age and I don't know how much he will have in the tank. But still, solid pitcher. I have advocated trading Ellsbury. Perhaps you missed that. I would try to trade him for a really good pitcher (you may have to throw something else in there as well). Maybe you could swing a deal with the Giants whereby you trade Ellsbury, Beckett, and a prospect for Angel Pagan and, say, Madison Bumgarner. They get by far the better OF and a pitcher who probably will do very well in the NL. Plus a prospect to boot. The Sox get a solid OF to replace Ellsbury, and a really good left-handed starter. And the Sox save a ton of money. The Giants are one of a few teams that could probably absorb Beckett's contract. So if you could swing something like that, sure. But I'm not interested in just giving pieces away for nothing.

Let me ask you this, 700? What would you have done to improve the starting rotation? Here's a link of the FA class of 2012 that they could have chosen from: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/?page_id=175 What names on that list did you want the Sox to go after? If none of them, what trade was out there for the Sox to make to improve their rotation before the season started?

I guess I don't see how you can be so sure that it'll be the same next year. It's possible, sure. But not likely, given their track records. Again, all they needed was an *AVERAGE* Beckett and Lester - and that average has taken into account their injuries, bad seasons, etc. So just an average year from those two and they are in the playoffs comfortably. Cripes, just look at Lester. The Sox, ever since he became a regular starter, play .625 ball when he pitches. This year, they're at .375 in his 24 starts. If they were at .625 over those 24 starts, it would mean that the Sox' record when Lester pitches goes from 9-15 all the way up to 15-9, and THAT ALONE is enough to put them in first place in the Wild Card race. That's it. Forget Beckett....they could have afforded to have a crappy Beckett, so long as Lester was pitching *normally*. Again, not spectacularly....they didn't need to rely on Lester being GREAT. They just needed a *normal* Lester and they would be in the playoffs. And going into this season what reason did you have to suspect that Lester would suck so bad?