Orange Juiced

Newsflash: The Red Sox suck too. Over the last 163 games, Boston has like the 4th or 5th worst record in baseball. But more to the point: What does any of what you said have to do with the list of former Red Sox prospects that are doing well in the majors?

The Sox are a big market team and utilize their prospects to help acquire big-time talent (see: Armas+Pavano for Pedro; Rizzo+Kelly+Fuentes for Gonzalez, etc.). I don't even remember who all these guys were traded for, but here's a pretty impressive list of former Sox prospects and how they're doing this year: Brandon Moss (28): 181 ab, 15 hr, 34 rbi, .254/.322/.552/.874, 138 ops+ Josh Reddick (25): 489 ab, 28 hr, 73 rbi, .262/.327/.505/.832, 128 ops+ David Murphy (30): 350 ab, 11 hr, 50 rbi, .314/.392/.491/.883, 130 ops+ Anthony Rizzo (23): 223 ab, 10 hr, 31 rbi, .287/.333/.457/.791, 113 ops+ Hanley Ramirez (28): 338 ab, 22 hr, 82 rbi, .254/.326/.451/.777, 110 ops+ Justin Masterson (27): 10-12, 4.91 era, 1.46 whip, 79 era+ Anibal Sanchez (28): 7-11, 4.24 era, 1.35 whip, 96 era+ Jed Lowrie (28): 285 ab, 14 hr, 36 rbi, .253/.343/.456/.799, 116 ops+ That's just a quick list of the guys off the top of my head. I wouldn't mind having most of those guys back, although, to be fair, moving Hanley did result in a WS title, thanks in very large part to Josh Beckett and Mike Lowell, who they got back in that deal. Who are some other guys they've traded away?

Yes, a very large one.

This is where I'm at. Not, obviously, because of how the team is doing *now*, but because the trade (the start of the great purge) has given this franchise an opportunity to get a fresh start. Yes, the team is embarrassing itself right now. But I'm not even upset at this point. I just hope that a game like last night convinces the management that this last month has to be all about playing the kids and trying to see who can be helpful for next year. For example, we should never see Aaron Cook pitch another inning for this franchise.

All Lackey has to do to be worth $10 million a year (which, thanks to his TJ surgery and the clause it kicked in on his contract, is basically what the Sox owe him) is to be worth about 1.8 WAR. According to Fangraphs, a win is worth: 2013: $5.25m 2014: $5.51m 2015: $5.79m So over the course of 3 years, 3 WAR will be worth $16.55 million. If he'd cost $30.5 million, he needs to produce just 1.84 WAR a season. As hard as it is to believe, he *almost* got there in 2010, when he went 14-11 with a 4.40 era for the Sox. That year he was worth 1.5 WAR. In the three years before last year (so we're looking at 2008, 2009, and 2010, he was worth a combined 6.4 WAR. And those years weren't exactly Cy Young Award caliber years: 2008: 12-5, 3.75 era, 1.23 whip, 161 ip 2009: 11-8, 3.83 era, 1.27 whip, 176 ip 2010: 14-11, 4.40 era, 1.42 whip, 215 ip So he really only has to put up about a line of: 12-8, 3.80 era, 1.25 whip, in 180 innings and he's pretty much got those 2 WAR. Now, can he even do that? I don't know. But at this point, his contract certainly isn't crazy bad. We have the TJ surgery to thank for that.

Right now, an unproven 19-year old. I'm a big fan of his, but let's not crown him the next Ernie Banks just yet.

Agreed. I just hope they spend it wisely.

Mauer would certainly be a terrific fit in this lineup and in this ballpark, make no mistake about it. But again, he'll be on the wrong side of 30, his body has taken a beating, he has very little power for a 1b, and he costs a small fortune. Probably not worth it, despite the obvious talent.

No he wouldn't. Not at all. If you go back 4 years and look at his MVP season, when he was 26, sure. But look at the last 3 seasons combined: .312/.394/.432/.825, 128 ops+, averages 10 hr, 83 rbi per 162 games We all know he's a very good hitter. I'm not arguing against that. But elite, for a 1b? Here are the guys that I consider to be elite 1b, and their stats over the past 3 seasons: Votto: .321/.429/.572/1.001, 166 ops+, 33 hr, 109 rbi per 162 g Pujols: .300/.378/.560/.938, 157 ops+, 41 hr, 116 rbi per 162 g Fielder: .289/.407/.518/.925, 149 ops+, 34 hr, 106 rbi per 162 g Konerko: .309/.390/.539/.928, 147 ops+, 36 hr, 109 rbi per 162 g Gonzalez: .312/.385/.511/.896, 141 ops+, 27 hr, 113 rbi per 162 g That's the elite group right there. Those guys, especially considering their power, are much better-hitting 1b than Mauer would be. I would assume that Mauer's numbers would go up some in Fenway, surrounded by a better lineup, but I don't see him in this elite group at all. Plus, he's REALLY expensive, and he'll be 30 next April. I'm not saying I wouldn't love to have the guy on the Red Sox, because he's a terrific baseball player. But at that money, at his age, with the wear and tear already on his body from all that catching, given his relative lack of power for a 1b? No thanks. Now, if Minnesota was willing to pay a good chunk of his salary, we might have something.

What happens if the Sox offer Ortiz 1 year, $10 million? Is he going to say no? If he says no, where is he going to play? Maybe New York would sign him (he would hit a ton of HR in that band-box of a right field), but their DH philosophy has changed, and they need a spot for ARod to get lots of AB besides 3b. There just aren't a lot of landing spots for him - has to be a big-market team in contention and in need of a DH. Not a lot of those out there.

His name is being bandied about on WEEI and in other Sox forums as someone the Sox could go after this offseason. My initial, gut-level response is NO WAY. And it's probably a correct gut reaction. My concerns are primarily threefold: (1) He has a troublesome substance addiction which probably will not be helped by living in Boston, (2) He has a worrisome injury history (last 4 years: 89, 133, 121, 120 games played), and (3) he'll cost a fortune (probably somewhere in the 4-5 yr, $80-120 million range). I mean, that's a triple-whammy of concerns. But then I step back and think a little more. I'm not saying I'm talking myself into it, but I'm talking myself into at least thinking a little more about it. Here's the thought process. His per-162 game averages the past 5 seasons are this: 707 pa, 636 ab, 105 r, 196 h, 40 2b, 5 3b, 36 hr, 129 rbi, .307/.364/.549/.912 Let's say he only manages to play in 75% of games (120). Pro-rate those numbers from 162 games down to 120 and you get this line: 530 pa, 477 ab, 79 r, 147 h, 30 2b, 4 3b, 27 hr, 100 rbi, .307/.364/.549/.912 What's a player who puts up those numbers worth? If you had a player put up those numbers over 162 games, that's a really valuable player. It's a guy worth more than 4 WAR. According to (http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/linear-dollars-per-win-again/), the cost per win in 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, and 2017 will be: 2013 - 5.25 million 2014 - 5.51 million 2015 - 5.79 million 2016 - 6.08 million 2017 - 6.38 million Let's play it conservatively and say that Hamilton is a 3.5 WAR player per season over the next 5 years. 2013 - 5.25 million x 3.5 = 18.375m 2014 - 5.51 million x 3.5 = 19.285m 2015 - 5.79 million x 3.5 = 20.265m 2016 - 6.08 million x 3.5 = 21.280m 2017 - 6.38 million x 3.5 = 22.330m That means he's "worth" a 5-year deal for a total of more than $101 million. But there's more. He is only playing 75% of the games. What do you do with the other 25%? A replacement-level corner outfielder (Bobby Kielty, 2006, is a perfect example of a replacement level corner OF) should put up a line roughly this: 270 ab, 35 r, 73 h, 20 2b, 1 3b, 8 hr, 36 rbi, .270/.329/.440/.770. If we gave Kielty the 150 at-bats that Hamilton's absence need to be filled, a replacement-level corner OF should put up something like this: 150 ab, 19 r, 41 h, 11 2b, 1 3b, 4 hr, 20 rbi Combine that line with Hamilton's, and you end up with a total LF production of: 627 ab, 98 r, 188 h, 41 2b, 5 3b, 31 hr, 120 rbi, .300 avg That's a really, really good corner outfielder. That guy right there is worth around $20 million. And since the replacement-level guy isn't going to cost more than a million bucks a year, we're right in the ballpark financially. So my point is this: even if Hamilton only can give you 120 games, at his ability, he might very well be worth having. It's kind of like talking about Pedro Martinez in his prime. He didn't throw nearly as many innings as guys like Randy Johnson, but Pedro was SO GOOD that you could fill those missing innings in with a guy off the street and the cumulative totals were still better than any other pitcher in baseball. Hamilton isn't Pedro circa 1999-2000, because those years were among the very best in the history of the sport, but the principle is the same. So I'm not saying the Sox should sign Hamilton. I am saying, however, that they should definitely kick the tires on him and give him serious consideration.

Lester has had a bad season, but he's certainly rounding into form. His last 5 starts: 34.2 ip (so essentially 7 a game), 3.12 era, 1.07 whip, 8.6 k/9 He's been terrific lately. If he keeps this up, given his past track record, no team will flinch at what he did for the first few months of this season. He'll have tremendous value.

I totally hear you on that. But he's a very intriguing trade candidate because he might not cost that much to get him, and he only has one year left on his contract, so if it's a mistake, it's not going to be a long-term killer. If he regains his old form, however, then suddenly you've added one of the best pitchers in the sport, and then perhaps you could give him a couple year extension. A risk, but it's only a one-year risk. Not saying they should do it, but he might be available relatively cheaply, and it could really pay off.

Let's get very serious about addressing the team's biggest need heading into this offseason: starting pitching. Just like we had no idea that the Dodgers would take Crawford, we have no idea what starting pitchers might be available in a trade with the Red Sox. That said, here are some potential candidates for acquisition: Free Agents Joe Blanton Zack Greinke Dan Haren (2013 option) Tim Hudson (2013 option) Gavin Floyd (2013 option) RA Dickey (2013 option) Francisco Liriano Kyle Lohse Shaun Marcum Brandon McCarthy Jake Peavy (2013 option) Anibal Sanchez Ervin Santana (2013 option) James Shields (2013 option) Jake Westbrook (2013 option) Potential Trade Targets Felix Hernandez (would cost a fortune to acquire) Tim Lincecum (makes a ton of $$, currently having a bad year) Cliff Lee (Phils might be in rebuilding mode soon) Roy Halladay (see Lee, Cliff) Matt Garza Josh Johnson Wandy Rodriguez Jason Vargas Edinson Volquez Jair Jurrjens Ideally, they'd ship about 5 prospects to Seattle for Felix Hernandez. But I don't think that's going to happen. Trying to be realistic here (though we all thought we were being realistic when we said that there was NO WAY anyone would take Crawford or Beckett without the Sox eating a TON of money....and amazingly it happened). If the Sox are committed to acquiring a true #1 starter, Felix would be the first choice, obviously, but again, he's going to be very hard to get. I think it's more likely that they trade for a guy like Halladay or Lincecum. Halladay hasn't been as good this year as he normally is, and that's understandable, considering that he's 37. He has this year and then 2013 left on his contract, so the Sox would only have to pay him for one year (a very expensive year...~20 mil). But in his last 5 starts he's been awesome, so it appears that he's back in the form that makes him a true ace. If the Sox traded for him, they'd have to see him as either a 1-year guy or as a guy they'd look to extend a few more years after that, when he'd probably get paid ace money but not really be an ace anymore. Lincecum is more intriguing. Young, dynamic, with a tremendous MLB resume. But he's having a bad year and he makes $22 mil in 2013. Still, if the Giants believe he's peaked, then letting him go for a solid package of prospects might make some sense, especially if one of the prospects is a near MLB ready SP (see: De La Rosa or Webster). Or the Sox could go the non-ace route and just accumulate a staff of really solid pitchers, 1-5. Keeping Lester, Buchholz, and Lackey (who I actually think has a pretty good chance of being solid next year, after fully recovering from TJ surgery), and adding, say, Brandon McCarthy (era of 3.32 and 3.12 in 2011 and 2012, respectively) and Anibal Sanchez (not pitching well for Detroit but has been solid the past few years) would make for a very nice rotation. So I don't know the route the Sox want to take, but there are some intriguing SP arms that could potentially be available.

Have a look at Shields' baseball-reference page before you decide that he's a guy you want the Sox to go after with a pretty large contract (which is what it'll take to sign him). Last 4 seasons: 2009: 4.14 era, 1.33 whip 2010: 5.18 era, 1.46 whip 2011: 2.82 era, 1.04 whip 2012: 4.01 era, 1.29 whip One of these things is not like the others. You'd be betting that this outlier season would actually represent his true ability. I think he's a solid pitcher, one that I wouldn't mind having on the team, but the guy feels better than he really is. Career #s: 3.97 era, 105 era+, 1.24 whip. Not bad, and again, a guy you would want on your team, but not a stud.

From all the reports on Greinke, a city like Boston would be a horrendous fit for him. Too much of a risk, IMO. They need players that can thrive in a place like this. Peavy has really upped his value this year. Everyone knows he has a world of talent. This year he is healthy and proving he can really pitch in the AL. Just 31, he will likely command a deal of $12-14 million a year. I'd pass on him. Don't get me wrong, I like both those pitchers, but I don't see it being wise to offer them the kind of deals I think it will take to land them. Of course, you never know and I'd at least kick the tires.

I just threw it out there a couple of posts ago....just pointing out that now that the Sox have added four good prospects, they have enough prospect ammo to unload a dump truck full to Seattle and still not gut the system. Whether Seattle would want to do that is another question entirely, but they have tons of quality pieces they can now move.

Two things: (1) I would not go after Grienke or Peavy, because they will likely command the kind of deals the Sox just rid themselves of in Beckett. (2) The Sox just added four high-quality prospects to their farm system. It gives them plenty of ammo with which to go get Felix (or at least give it a try) without truly gutting the system. I mean, suppose they got rid of the four prospects they just acquired, plus, say, Iglesias. It would mean the Sox traded a very good but overpaid Gonzalez, an underperforming and *very* overpaid Crawford, and a cancer who is also very overpaid in Beckett, plus a SS that might never play meaningful time for them in exchange for one of the premier stud SP in the sport. All that, plus they will have saved about $40 million a year in payroll. It would mean their rotation next year could be Felix, Lester, Buchholz, Doubront, and some other solid veteran that doesn't have the price tag of Peavy or Grienke (like a Tim Hudson). That's a damned good rotation.

Typo. I meant, "for the rest of 2012", and Middlebrooks is likely done for the year, right?

De La Rosa is a top pitching prospect by any measure. Webster is another high-level pitching prospect. As is Barnes. They also have a bunch of excellent position player prospects. I could see them offering Webster, Barnes, Iglesias, Brentz, and one other guy to Seattle for Felix. The Sox would *still* have some quality prospects waiting in the wings (De La Rosa, Bogaerts, Sands, Bradley, Owens, Workman, etc.), so it wouldn't be a total raiding of the farm system. For the Mariners, it might be tempting, b/c Webster and Barnes could be in the rotation by Aug 2013 or 2014 at the latest, they have crap at SS, and Brentz is a fantastic hitting OF prospect. I'm just saying, if they're at all considering moving Felix, this is the kind of package that they'd net, most likely.

Buchholz. One "c" and two "h". This team now has the resources in both money and prospects to go get a true #1 like Felix Hernandez.

I was at Fenway last night...fun game to watch. Obviously, reports of the pending trade overshadowed the game. When Gonzalez was scratched from the starting lineup (he was announced in the 5-hole, but then Gomez came out to play the first inning), we knew it was for real. But aside from that (which, obviously, is huge), we saw the return of David Ortiz. Electrifying. We saw the continued amazing play of Ciriaco. We saw more good mound work by a resurgent Jon Lester (hope his leg is ok). But more than all that, IMO, I think we saw the changing of the guard at closer. I think Aceves' recent struggles, combined with Bailey's solid performance = Bailey moving into the closer's role, with Ace moving back into the "whenever we need some outs in a key spot" role, whether that's in the 7th or 8th or whatever. And that's where he should be, IMO. So very exciting day for Red Sox fans all the way around.

LL was a driving force behind the Hanley/Anibal for Lowell/Beckett deal. He's not afraid to pull off a mega-trade. But then, they brought the big names in, not sent the big names out.

Ok, well, the blockbuster trade (which *has* to be the biggest waiver-period trade of all time, right?) looks like it's a done deal. Beckett and Crawford signed off on it last night, so it appears to be done. The Sox give up Beckett, Gonzalez, Crawford, and Punto (how will they ever replace him?), and get back James Loney (who I'm sure they'll let go after this season), Jerry Sands (excellent power-hitting OF prospect), Rubby De La Rosa (an outstanding pitching prospect), Allen Webster (another high level pitching prospect), and Ivan de Jesus (an OF prospect). That's four good-to-great prospects added to the stable of talent. For the rest of 2013, I would like to see the Sox thusly: C - Lavarnway, Salty 1b - Loney, Gomez 2b - Pedroia 3b - Ciriaco SS - Iglesias LF - Sands/Kalish CF - Ellsbury RF - Ross DH - Ortiz Let's see what the new guy, Sands, can do. Excellent power, should translate well as a RHH in Fenway. Let Iglesias play...see what he's got. May as well see if Gomez could be a competent 1b moving forward as well. As for 2013, the Sox now have a significant number of quality prospects they could move in a deal for a true ace pitcher: De La Rosa, Webster, Sands, Iglesias, Brentz, Bradley Jr., Barnes, Jacobs, Bogaerts, Owens, Britton, Workman, etc. What would be required to get Felix Hernandez or Tim Lincecum (if you think Lincecum is going to bounce back)? They sure have the pieces to do it now. So in the offseason you re-up Papi for 2 years, trade 5 of these prospects for Hernandez (preferring to keep De La Rosa, Bogaerts, Bradley, and Barnes....everyone else...no problem). Sign Tim Hudson (stable veteran, has had success in the AL) to a 2-year, $25 million deal (if you think you're going to contend in 2013), find a 1b, and away we go.

I'm happy with all of these moves.