Orange Juiced

I'm not saying he can't produce 30-40 homers. You just stated that he'll be a "consistent 30-40 hr" guy. Given that he's never hit more than 30 - and yes, I realize that he hasn't ever had 500+ ab either - I just think that's a bit of a stretch. I mean, if you project his numbers out, sure, he *could* be a consistent 30-40 hr guy, and we all hope that happens. But we just don't know, because he's never done that before. That's all I'm saying. But don't get me wrong - I really like this move.

He won't be facing the crappy Red Sox' pitching staff in those games though.

Re: the bolded part - um, what? He's hit more than 26 hr just *once* in his career (30 in 2011). Now he has never gotten more than 453 ab, so it's likely that his hr numbers will go up with more at-bats, but he's in no way a lock to give the Sox a consistent 30-40 hr level of production. I expect him to be around 30 hr, 85 rbi, and about an .850 ops. And that, for $13 million a season, is a great bargain. I'm very happy with the signing, but let's not pencil him for regularly putting up 35-40 homers just yet. If he does that, bonus.

Not necessarily. They could think that Lester will be good, but that Myers has a chance to be a perennial all-star, 40 hr middle of the order bat, *and* they think they have a good chance of replacing Lester from the free agent market. If they think those things, they they might still be willing to do the deal even if they think highly of Lester.

I would definitely consider trading him for Myers, and I wouldn't consider it "giving up on" Lester. I would consider it for two reasons: (1) that they would have an opportunity to trade him for a major, major offensive prospect, and (2) that there is more pitching available in the free agent market than there is good hitting. So they could go right back out and fill that pitching void easier than they could acquire a potential 35-40 home run bat that they'd have cost-controlled for years. I think Lester is likely to have a good year this year; I'm not advocating giving up on him. I just think you could trade him for something really special and use your other resources (namely, money) to fill in the other holes.

Maybe. The thing about Lackey is that he does have a pretty solid career track record, guys often do better after coming off TJ surgery, and his contract is actually not that bad right now, given the $500k vesting option for 2015 thanks to his injury. He's basically on a 3-year, $31 million deal. Well, actually, maybe that's why they will be able to move him. Some team probably could use a guy like that and perhaps they can get something of real value for him.

If this deal really is out there to be had, I think you do it if you're the Red Sox. Why? Myers is a legit middle of the order hitter, and, at just 21, is cost-controlled for a long time. I think there's a good chance Lester regains his 2010 form so that's an awful lot to replace, but there are a couple of terrific pitchers out there on the FA market. You deal Lester for Myers, and then sign Greinke and Anibal Sanchez and then, yes, Hamilton and Napoli. Lineup: CF Ellsbury 2b Pedroia LF Hamilton 1b Napoli DH Ortiz RF Myers 3b Middlebrooks C Lavarnway SS Iglesias That's a serious lineup, even with Iglesias at the bottom. The rotation: Greinke, Sanchez, Buchholz, Lackey, Doubront You have one true ace in Greinke, two very capable guys at the 2 and 3 with Sanchez and Buchholz, Doubront is a good candidate to improve upon his solid rookie season, and I think Lackey should be fine, especially as a 4th or 5th starter. And you can do all this without trading any of the young stud arms in the system. The one thing this would cost the Sox is money, but money is also the one thing they have plenty of at this point.

Swisher for 2 years, $13 million per would work for me. Anything more in either years or dollars and I'm happy letting him go elsewhere.

Agreed. It's interesting to look a little more into his numbers though. Here's what he did: Stretch #1 (Apr 9 to Jul 18) 18 g, 102.0 ip, 101 h, 48 er, 38 bb, 99 k, 4.24 era, 1.36 whip, 8.7 k/9 Stretch #2 (Jul 23 to Sep 7) 7 g, 32.2 ip, 45 h, 30 er, 20 bb, 37 k, 8.27 era, 1.99 whip, 10.2 k/9 Stretch #3 (Sep 13 to Sep 29) 4 g, 26.1 ip, 16 h, 9 er, 13 bb, 31 k, 3.08 era, 1.10 whip, 10.6 k/9 So the first big stretch he was solid. Not great, not bad, but definitely better than the average SP in the AL. That second stretch was horrible. But that third stretch he was outstanding. You could really look at him in three ways: View #1 (the whole enchilada). This view holds that he's an average or slightly below average SP in the AL. His full season stats suggest this is the case, as he puts up a below-average ERA+ figure (89). View #2 (they figured him out). This view holds that he was ok those first 18 games, but the last 11 they had him figured out and he struggled to the tune of a 5.95 era and 1.59 whip. View #3 (that middle stretch was a dip in an otherwise very encouraging first full year in the majors). This view holds that, for a rookie, he shows a lot of promise. If you take his first and third stretches and combine them, here's what those 22 games look like: 128.1 ip, 117 h, 57 er, 51 bb, 130 k, 3.99 era, 1.31 whip, 9.2 k/9 And thus that bad second stretch of 7 games is seen as a predictable low that most rookies experience, but that he bounced back nicely at the end of the year. I happen to subscribe to view #3. He has terrific stuff (very good curve plus a 95 mph fastball), and he strikes out a lot of batters (excellent k/9 rate). If he is controlling his pitches, he's downright nasty. Remember, he was just a 24-year old rookie this past year. There's a TON of room for improvement, but we've already seen very encouraging signs from him, and there's lots of reasons to be optimistic about his future as a starting pitcher in the majors.

Re: Doubront. I'm not sure what happened to him during his late-July to early-September stretch, because yeah, he was pretty bad then. But it couldn't have been fatigue. His last four starts of the year were very good: 4 g, 26.1 ip, 3.08 era, 1.10 whip, 10.6 k/9 So at least he ended the season pitching very well, which gives me some reason for optimism with him next year.

Sox apparently about to land Jonny Gomes.

A really do not like the idea of a long contract for Hamilton. Anything over 3 years is too much, IMO. That said, he is one of the absolute very best baseball players on planet earth, and even if he only plays 130 games next year, he is a really good bet to put up huge numbers. For at least 2, maybe 3, seasons, he would improve the Red Sox considerably, barring injury or some drug/alcohol-induced relapse (which is, I grant, always a possibility). If they added him and Napoli, put Iglesias at SS, went with a Kalish/Sands platoon in RF (I'd really like to see what Sands could do...he has terrific power), this lineup would be really good: CF Ellsbury 2b Pedroia LF Hamilton 1b Napoli DH Ortiz 3b Middlebrooks RF Kalish/Sands C Lavarnway SS Iglesias They'd likely still have enough money to get two SP, one of which is a top-tier guy (see: Grienke, Zach). And they could do all this by keeping contracts short, but AAV high, and without giving up prospects, who should be ready in a couple of years.

It took Ozzie Smith til he was 29 years of age to reach a batting average of .250 or better, and an ops+ of 85 or more. And yet, for those first six years (ages 23-28), here were his WAR numbers: 3.0, 1.4, 4.9, 0.9, 4.8, and 3.5. On average, a 3.1 WAR player, *without hitting .250 or putting up an OPS+ of 85*. It's entirely possible to be a horrible, horrible hitter and still be a real asset to a team. Now, it must be said, that he stole quite a few bases back in those days: 40, 28, 57, 22, 25, and 34. So if he walked or somehow got a bloop single, there was more than a decent chance it would turn into two bases thanks to a steal. So there's a lot of value there that Iglesias doesn't have. But Iglesias, with his ridiculously good glove, can still be an asset to the Sox even if he only hits around .240, and even if he doesn't steal 30 bases. But if he only hits .190, and steals 5 bases, then he's not much of an asset at all, even if his defense is off the charts. And if his defense somehow slipped, he'd be a disaster. I do think he can eventually get to the .240-.250 range with about 15 sb. If he can do that and be magical with the glove, he'll be a really helpful major league player. But it might take several years for him to get there, and I wonder, with Bogaerts and his 30 hr potential in the pipeline, if the Sox will let Iglesias grow into that kind of offensive player.

Well I won't be happy either, but will you be angry with Cherington if the Sox offer Grienke $20 million a year but someone else just absolutely blows that away?

Will you be pissed if he signs a 6 year, $150 million contract with someone else? If the Sox offered 5/$110 and someone else just went bonkers and blew that away, would you still be mad at Cherington? I ask this because while I agree with you on the Toronto thing (wish the Sox could/would have swung that deal, though it sounds like what they were asking for from Boston was crazy much), I think we both agree that there is a line you draw and that it's possible for the Sox to be very much involved in these things but not be able to finish the deal b/c someone else comes in and just overwhelms the process. And in such a situation it's hard to blame the Sox.

If Torii Hunter is going to get 2/26, what in the world is BJ Upton going to get?

Reyes played 133 games in 2010 and 126 in 2011. In each of those seasons he missed about a fifth of the season. But let's be real: he would have been an incredible addition to the Red Sox. The guy is a big-time baseball player, and yes, he played 160 games this past season. And I agree with your take on Buehrle. Soft tosser, sure. Incredibly consistent and solid? Absolutely. ERA is always in the mid to high 3's. Always gives you 200+ innings. Just a really good, consistent pitcher. Not an ace, but a guy you definitely want to have have on your staff.

Whoops, my bad. I was looking at the Marlins' baseball-reference page and they still have him listed there. Ok, scratch him off the list then!!

Gaby, not Anibal. Hence my comment, "They also get a 28-year old 1b that was bad this past year and fell out of favor with Florida, but he makes peanuts and in 2010 and 2011 he put up 108 and 113 ops+ numbers, so it's possible he could be a useful piece for Boston."

Offer them this deal: Sox give: Ranaudo, one of Webster/DeLaRosa/Barnes, Brentz, Cecchini, and, say, Morales Marlins give: Stanton, Nolasco, Sanchez The Sox take the last big contract off the Marlins' hands, and Nolasco should help Boston. They also get a 28-year old 1b that was bad this past year and fell out of favor with Florida, but he makes peanuts and in 2010 and 2011 he put up 108 and 113 ops+ numbers, so it's possible he could be a useful piece for Boston. And, of course, they get Stanton, the prize. But the Marlins get five significant pieces in return.

Don't forget the Jays also got Bonifacio, who is an incredibly useful player. He plays basically every position but P, C, and 1b (he has at least 75 PA in every other position), has tremendous speed (40 sb in 2011, and 30 in just 64 g in 2012), and is solid defensively. The ultimate utility player, and he's just 27.

Indeed it did. Don't think there's any arguing that point.

Maybe not. Maybe the Sox really are looking to develop from within and didn't want to give up specific prospects that the Marlins were looking for. Who knows?

I'm pretty sure the Sox' offseason is over and the roster is set for 2013.

Nick Cafardo‏@nickcafardo Source: Red Sox made a push for both Jose Reyes and Josh Johnson, but Jays just blew Marlins away. Looks like Cherington not only inquired, but made a real effort. I'm curious to know what the Marlins were asking for in return. But it confirms my earlier post that the Jays just offered a lot more than the Red Sox did.