Orange Juiced

To me, here's what the roster could look like in 2013 and 2014, just factoring in minor leaguers that will have made their way to the majors, as well as guys whose contracts will run out (assume we don't re-sign them). Well, I will assume that they re-sign Ortiz after this year because..well..I'm pretty confident they'll do that. 2013 C - Salty, Lavarnway 1b - Gonzalez 2b - Pedroia 3b - Middlebrooks SS - ??? LF - Crawford CF - Ellsbury RF - Kalish DH - Ortiz SP - Beckett, Lester, Buchholz, Doubront, Lackey RP - Morales, Atchison, Hill, Melancon, Bard, Bailey, Tazawa 2014 C - Saltalamacchia, Lavarnway 1b - Gonzalez 2b - Pedroia 3b - Middlebrooks SS - Bogaerts (current minor league #s: .284/.358/.478, 14 hr) LF - Crawford CF - Jackie Bradley Jr (minor league #s: .341/.452/.510, 6 hr, 22 sb) RF - Kalish DH - Ortiz (I am assuming they sign him to a 2-year deal this offseason) SP - Beckett, Lester, Buchholz, Doubront, Lackey (all under control through 2014...Lester has a 2014 team option) RP - Barnes (minor league #s: 7-3, 2.30 era, 0.97 whip, 10.8 k/9), Morales, Melancon, Bard, Bailey, Alex Wilson (minor league #s: 5-2, 3.41 era, 1.37 whip, 9.5 k/9) They have some very exciting young players coming up through the system that I'd really like to see play for Boston. I want to see Matt Barnes, Alex Wilson, Jackie Bradley Jr, Ryan Lavarnway, Xander Bogaerts, Bryce Brentz, and Blake Swihart play for the major league club. They have enough locked-in veterans to provide the framework for inserting these young guys as they emerge ready. I also think that next year both Beckett and Lester will be better. Lester because (as I started a thread just about him) he's too good to have fallen off a cliff (IMO), and Beckett because it'll be the odd year Beckett. Look at his years by even-odd (ERA only to make it simple): 2002: 4.10 2003: 3.04 (-1.06) 2004: 3.79 (+0.75) 2005: 3.38 (-0.41) 2006: 5.01 (+1.63) 2007: 3.27 (-1.74) 2008: 4.03 (+0.76) 2009: 3.86 (-0.17) 2010: 5.78 (+1.92) 2011: 2.89 (-2.89) 2012: 4.53 (+1.64) See a pretty remarkable pattern here? So I expect (though I have no idea why this is the case with Beckett) him to be much better next year, and *THEN* they should deal him after that, when he only has one year left on his contract, coming off a good season. He should then fetch something pretty nice.

I don't think it would be a case of "giving up" on Mesoraco. I think it would be a case of "we have a real chance to win it now, and Salty (who is still young) gives us a much better chance for the next couple of seasons than Mesoraco does, and Salty isn't really that expensive at all right now". The price for that upgrade would be Mesoraco. Seems pretty fair to me.

Interesting idea about the catching situation. Devin Mesoraco is a terrific catching prospect. Terrific power, and he's reportedly very good defensively, but he hasn't done much yet in his rookie season. I read before yesterday's game that the Sox were 20-9 with Shoppach catching and 19-40 with Saltalamacchia. So it would now be 21-9 after last night's win vs. 19-40. I don't know what to make of that, but it indicates that perhaps Salty doesn't call a good game, or that pitchers aren't as comfortable pitching to him, or whatever. I like Salty's power (on pace for 30+ hr), but he will be a free agent in 2014 at age 29. Would the Sox give him a long-term deal at that point? Unlikely. So maybe he's a good piece to move. Saltalamacchia for Mesoraco and a mid-level prospect? Gives the Sox a young, talented, cost-controlled two-way catcher for years and adds a minor league chip. Gives the Reds instant offense from the catching position at a current price they can afford.

Suppose you are the GM of the Red Sox. What's your plan? Do you go for it this year, and deal away prospects and excess bullpen guys to acquire expensive stars to bolster the team's chances? Do you just play around the edges with guys like Sweeney, Aviles, etc.? Do you make a bold move for the future? Try to think realistically about what the Sox could get in return. How would you approach things at this point, given payroll, standings, players' contract situations, etc.

My sentiments exactly. They should have said yes to Florida when they had the chance.

There's definitely a reason to trade him for Bell and Ramirez. It gets them out from under a monstrous contract 3 years earlier. Another reason is that there's a good chance that Hanley, being a right-handed hitter with good power, will outproduce Crawford, a left-handed pull hitter with not nearly as much power, for this team. Now that may not be enough of a reason (or reasons) for you to make the deal, but those are legitimate reasons.

It would mean this lineup, most likely: CF Ellsbury 2b Pedroia DH Ortiz LF Ross 1b Gonzalez SS Ramirez 3b Middlebrooks C Saltalamacchia RF Kalish/Nava That's a pretty stacked lineup. And the rotation would be: Johnson, Lester, Beckett, Buchholz, and Doubront. In theory anyway, a really good rotation. I wonder if adding a guy like Johnson would help stabilize Beckett and Lester some. Who knows.

It looks like the Sox are in on Hanley Ramirez, according to rotoworld. I have no idea what they would offer (earlier reports included Carl Crawford). Would the Sox and Marlins agree to a deal like this: Crawford + Iglesias + another top prospect for Hanley + Josh Johnson? I would do that in a heartbeat if I was Boston, depending on that last prospect. It would give them a better chance this year and it would get them out of the Crawford contract. Yes, they'd be taking on Hanley's huge contract too, but his ends sooner.

Obviously. But their starting point is obviously different too. The point is that it was a huge dropoff for Carlton from one year to the next. Pettitte had a similar thing happen. Lots of guys do. That was the point.

Jon Lester has had just a miserable season, obviously. No way to sugarcoat that. The real question is this: Is this just a bad season or is this the "real" Jon Lester moving forward. Nobody has a crystal ball, of course, but let's look at this. Reasons to believe that this is the "real" Jon Lester: - His velocity is down. Instead of sitting at 94-95, he now sits at 92-93. - He has thrown a lot of innings the past 5 seasons (averages over 200 a year) - Last 5 years of era+: 144, 136, 134, 125, 80. Not a good trend. - Last 4 years of k/9: 10.0, 9.7, 8.5, 7.5. Again, not a good trend. Reasons to believe that this is just a crappy year and that he should bounce back: - He's always been good. From 2008-2011, his numbers have been remarkably consistent. ERA always in the low-to-mid threes, 200 ip, 180+ Ks, 15+ wins. Dude is a really good pitcher. - His walk rate is way down this year, from 3.5 down to 2.8. And his strike percentage is higher this year (63% vs. 62% last year). - What's happened is that he's giving up a TON of extra-base hits. 2008-2012 XBH%: 6.8, 6.3, 5.6, 6.9, 10.1. One of these things is not like the others. - His line drive rate is also up (as one might expect): from 14% last year up to 21% this year. But he also had a 20% line drive rate in 2009, when he went 15-8, with a 3.41 era and a 1.23 whip and a 10.0 k/9. So he survived that LD rate that season just fine. The bottom line is this: He's throwing just as many strikes as he ever has. But his mistakes are getting *HAMMERED* at unusual rates. I don't think it's just purely bad luck, because his velocity is down some (but he still throws 93-94, so it's not like he's suddenly turned into Jamie Moyer out there). But his BABIP number is off the charts: .334. That's up from .287 last year and .291 in 2010. So when he misses, he is getting mangled for tons of extra-base hits. He is inducing fewer ground balls (a GB/FB rate of 0.91, which is the first time since '09 that it's been below 1.0). Guys are just hitting him at unusual rates. Normally when you see something like this you can chalk it up to an injury or a serious loss of control or of speed. He's exhibited none of these. I think mostly he's missing in the strike zone (instead of hitting the corner he's leaving it out over the plate), and hitters JUST AREN'T MISSING HIS MISTAKES. It happens. One final word on this by way of perspective. It's not a fair comp, but look at a guy like Steve Carlton, obviously one of the all-time greats. First three seasons: 14-9, 2.98 13-11, 2.99 17-11, 2.17 10-19, 3.73 I'm sure at that point in time, plenty of people were wondering, geez, what happened to Steve Carlton? He used to be such a great pitcher. But his era went up more than a run and a half in one season. Was he suddenly on the downswing? Turns out, no. Two years later he had his signature 27-10, 1.97 season and proceeded to have a HOF career. Interestingly, just after that signature year, he had another "bad" one (by his standards): 13-20, 3.90. Most really good pitchers have down years from time to time. I think it's way too early to suggest that Jon Lester is cooked (as some critics have done). The guy is just 28 years of age. He probably has 5 more good years left in him minimum. If the Sox deal him, I believe he will rebound (I think he'll rebound anyway) and put up fantastic numbers in 2013 and we'll all be wondering why the Sox dealt him for nickels and dimes on the dollar.

Why hasn't Ogando been in their rotation this year then? It's not like they haven't had a need. That's why they went after Oswalt so hard. There must be a reason.

Trade Josh Beckett and Mark Melancon to Texas for Alexi Ogando and a prospect ranked 10-15 in their organization, like a Cody Buckel. Beckett immediately fills a need for them (starting pitcher) and Melancon's recent #s have been more than adequate to help fill Ogando's role in the bullpen. The Sox, meanwhile, get a guy who has proven to be an effective starter (13-8, 3.51 era, 1.14 whip last year as he started 29 out of 31 games) and is just 28 years old. Plus, he makes peanuts and wouldn't be a free agent until 2017. I would think that Beckett would waive his 10/5 rights to do this, for many obvious reasons. The Sox get a good arm in return, shave a ton of salary, and pick up a potentially useful prospect in return. They have plenty of bullpen arms to spare at this point to survive the loss of those low-leverage innings Melancon pitches.