Orange Juiced

Dating back to last September 1, here's what the Red Sox' record has been: 76-113, for a robust winning percentage of .402 This is not a small sample size. This is what this team has become - one of the very worst in all of the major leagues. It's hard to believe, considering that as of August 31, 2011, they were the best team in baseball.

The guy that interests me is Josh Johnson. The Marlins are once again in fire-sale mode, so I'm sure he and his big remaining contract can be had. Fortunately, it's not a long contract so if he doesn't work out, the Sox aren't on the hook for many years to come. He is coming off injury, and that concerns me, given that he has seen his average fastball velocity drop by a couple miles an hour. In 2010 he was averaging about 95 and this year he's down to about 93 (see: ). Can he be effective in the AL East with that velocity? Maybe. He's the kind of *POTENTIAL* #1 starter I think they should go after. Tremendous upside, if he regains his form. Definite #1 should that happen. Coming off an injury, and expensive, so he's probably obtainable for a somewhat reasonable price. But, again, the contract isn't long so if it turns out to be a mistake, it won't hurt them for a long period of time. Since there are no easy moves at this point, the Sox need to roll the dice a little. A healthy rotation of Johnson, Lester, Buchholz, Lackey, and Morales/Doubront has a chance to be pretty good.

The Red Sox currently have the third worst ERA for starting pitchers in the American League, at 5.10. Lester, who has been much better of late, still has been a huge disappointment this year. Beckett was a disaster and is no longer with the team. Morales and Doubront have shown positive signs, but it is unclear what their ceiling is. Buchholz generally has been ok, but he hasn't performed like an ace. The Sox are throwing Matsuzaka and Cook out there every turn through the rotation, which certainly doesn't help the team ERA. The Sox are going nowhere unless they improve the starting pitching, and significantly so. They have some good young arms, some intriguing minor league guys (Barnes, Webster, De La Rosa), some guys who should be excellent and who are in their prime years (Buchholz, Lester), a returning wild card (Lackey), and a bunch of minor league chips they could use as trade bait. What do you think they should do? Let's not just say, "Trade for a #1." Say who you would go after, and why, and what you think it would reasonably take to get that guy. So a trade idea for Felix Hernandez can't be, Aviles, Ranaudo, and Iglesias for Felix.

Unless a GM is there for like 8-10 years, any championship team will be the result of a combination of efforts. Some of the 2004 and 2007 teams was built by Duquette, and other parts of it were assembled by Theo. Obviously a bit more of 2004 should be credited to Duquette, as more guys he brought into the organization were there on that team than in 2007, but still...both guys had a hand in each title. Why people make it out to be an either/or is beyond me.

What I mean is this: The Red Sox have some nice talent in the minor league system, but they appear to be a ways away. The Sox are in shambles currently. They have a lot of money freed up to make major moves. The question really is this: Do you want them to spend the money on big-ticket items (like Grienke, Hamilton, Upton, whatever) in order to make a playoff run next year, or would you be content to have next year be a developmental year for players like Bogaerts, Bradley, Barnes, Webster, De La Rosa, etc., in the hopes that come 2014, they are ready to field a quality MLB club full of homegrown talent? It doesn't have to be all one or all the other, of course. I have listened to the talk show guys say that Red Sox fans would never tolerate "rebuilding". I'm trying to see if they're wrong about that. Because while I was the least excited ever about a Red Sox season at the start of this year, if they went out and got a top-shelf manager, and started building the team with a core of young talent, I would look at next year as being pretty fun, even if they're not quite that good yet. I am seeing the Tampa model and I like it. A lot.

I don't want him as the Sox' future SS. I want Bogaerts. I might not mind Iglesias as a Pokey Reese style defensive replacement, but even Pokey could hit a *LITTLE*. Iglesias will have some real value if he can become good enough to get an obp of around .325, because his defense is so stellar. But I have serious, serious doubts that he'll ever get to that level.

Since May 11, Clay Buchholz has put up this line: 18 g, 126.1 ip (7.0/g), 3.28 era, 1.12 whip I'd say the only real thing to worry about with him is his health. He's certainly pitching quite well.

Late to the game thread. But can anyone at all answer the question of why in the hell is Dice-K still pitching baseball games for the Boston Red Sox? He will not be playing for them in 2013 (if he is, it's a travesty). There's nothing for this team to gain by throwing him and Aaron Cook out there. None. There have to be some kids (even this Zach Stewart kid they got from Chicago) they can use to gain some valuable MLB experience. Pitching Dice-K seems, to me, to be utterly pointless.

Okie dokie.

Nobody. Who said he's going to become an ace? (and don't say that I just did above, because I didn't. I suggested that he fits the profile, with his natural stuff, of a guy that, if he "gets it", could really excel. no guarantee of that happening)

Felix Doubront is just the kind of guy that you let go because you think he's no good, and in 3 years he's pitching for the Diamondbacks, making $900 k, winning 15 games and putting up an era in the low 3's, striking out 180 hitters a year with his 95-mph fastball and plus curve (which you knew he had when he was on your team), both of which he has learned how to command consistently. And then you ask, why can't the Sox develop guys like this? When, in fact, they could have, if they were just patient with them. Not saying it will turn out that way, but I could see it happening.

We also stunk with Pedroia, Middlebrooks, Ortiz, Ellsbury, and Buchholz. Are they also not part of the answer? The answer has to be wide-ranging. The Red Sox are not going to have five aces. Again, the Yankees are in first place and have used Freddy Garcia ($4 mil for 5.09) and Ivan Nova in their 4 and 5 spots in the rotation. The White Sox have Danks (5.70), Humber (6.50), and Floyd (4.55) at the back of their rotation. The Rangers throw out Feldman ($6.5 mil for 4.97) every fifth day. These are all division leaders. So you look at the entire picture and figure out how you can improve. One of the places where they can use a low-cost, but effective, person is in the #5 slot in the rotation. If they can get above average performance, at just a million bucks a year (Morales made just $850k this year), in the #5 spot in the rotation, that's a significant advantage, and it would be part of the solution.

We didn't stink because we had Morales and Doubront. Every team has questionable guys at #4 and #5. The division-leading Yankees throw out freaking Freddy (5.09 era) Garcia and Ivan (4.92 era) Nova every trip through the rotation. The Red Sox stunk because Josh Beckett and Jon Lester were horrendous, they had massive injuries, and the offense was terribly inconsistent. I'm sure the clubhouse drama didn't exactly help either. If Beckett and Lester were the 2010 Beckett and Lester, the Red Sox would have been in the playoffs as of the trading deadline.

Um.....that's all I've been saying. You seem to be confusing what I actually said with what you think I said.

Agree 100%. There is a problem with this FRANCHISE. Top to bottom.

I agree with the front office comment. I do think (as is obvious by now) that Doubront and Morales have shown that they have ability. Their k/9 rates show they have dynamic stuff. Both hit a wall this season, with the number of innings pitched being beyond what they're used to. I don't know that they will become terrific major-league starters. What I do know is: (1) They have the potential to be solid. (2) No team, really, can field aces in the 1-5 spots in the rotation. You have to have some back-end guys. And if they can find cheap back-end guys that also happen to be better than other teams' back-end guys, it's an advantage for the Red Sox, and it should be part of the long-term plan. (3) Saving money on the back end of the rotation frees up money to be better-used elsewhere. I'd rather spend a million on Morales as the #5 and use an extra $3 million on prying an ace away from someone, than spend $4 million on a #5 starter who, frankly, won't likely be any better than Morales is. Not every move to improve the team has to be a blockbuster. If you make small improvements in a number of places, that ends up being pretty significant.

I know, people, that we don't have a choice. None of us make decisions for the Red Sox. Good grief...it's a topic to discuss as fans. Are you willing to be a patient fan, or not? That's the question.

Ok Sox fans. Another thread plus a TV show today prompted me to throw this out to everyone. How willing are you to wait for the Sox to once again become a premier team? If they go with more of a youth movement, the talent is there for this club to have a very exciting, mostly home-grown team in the mold of Tampa Bay. But in order to get there, they'd likely suffer through a couple of down years. But at least they'd be down years as we watch the kids grow up. Are you willing to wait for that kind of scenario? Or are you of the mindset that, look, they can afford to go get guys like Grienke and Hamilton and they need to make the playoffs in 2013 - after all, they've missed the playoffs three straight years now? What say you, Sox Nation? Willing to wait, or win-at-all-costs in 2013?

No you didn't. My question was whether or not the "solution" has to result in a playoff appearance in 2013, or would you be willing to give it another year if that is what it took to be a great team in 2014.

Not anymore.

His rate stats have been awful compared to last year. AVG: .321 vs .257 OBP: .376 vs .300 SLG: .552 vs .354 OPS: .928 vs .655 TB/AB: 0.55 vs 0.33 Even when playing, he's been far, far worse this year compared to last. Obviously with the injury nobody expects his counting stats (hits, homers, etc.) to be the same. But the rate stats have taken a huge hit. That doesn't answer my question. Please try again.

I don't know if we can count on that either. I don't know if we can "count" on anything, really. Who would have thought that, after his near-MVP season in 2011, that Jacoby Ellsbury would have put up the stinker of a year he has (even after the injury he's been pretty mediocre at best)? Lester was incredibly consistent for four straight years, and then was awful for the first 4 months of this year. He was, until this year, someone you pretty much could "count on", but nope. Not this year. If we landed Felix Hernandez, I'd like to think we could count on him, but it's always possible that he goes out there and sucks rocks. Please answer the question I asked you in my previous post. I'll post it again here: The "solution" may be a long-term fix, not a fix for 2013. If Doubront and Morales both needed one more year of experience before budding into really solid MLB starters, would it be worth it to you to let the Sox go through one more year of growing pains in order to see the fruit of that in 2014? Or does the "solution" need to mean a playoff appearance in 2013?

A team with a rotation of Felix, the stud version of Jon Lester, and the potential Cy Young Award version of Clay Buchholz, plus Morales and Doubront is a 4th place pitching rotation? :lol::lol:

If they got rid of Lackey and added a stud starter (crazy trade for Felix Hernandez, say), and their rotation was: 1. Felix 2. Lester of 2008-2010 3. Buchholz 4. Morales 5. Doubront That is a 4th place team? I don't think so. It would be the best 1-2 punch in baseball, followed by a potential Cy Young candidate in Buchholz, giving them one of the best 1-2-3 SPs in the sport. That team could very well live with an above-average-starting-pitcher in Morales in the 4-slot, and a below-average SP in Doubront in the 5-slot. Obviously they wouldn't do much if they didn't score any runs, but that's a different part of the equation entirely. The point is that you're talking about the 4-5 spots in the rotation in isolation of everything else. It all depends on what else they do. EDIT: One other thing. The "solution" may be a long-term fix, not a fix for 2013. If Doubront and Morales both needed one more year of experience before budding into really solid MLB starters, would it be worth it to you to let the Sox go through one more year of growing pains in order to see the fruit of that in 2014? Or does the "solution" need to mean a playoff appearance in 2013?

When you say "part of the solution", what, exactly, do you mean? Nobody - not me, not anyone I know - has suggested that Morales should be slotted into a #2 or #1 spot. He has a world of ability, but has yet to prove he can handle a full workload as a starter, so you have to put him in as the #4 or #5, if you're going to put him in at all. But the reason he can be part of the solution is because the "solution" is to improve the pitching staff (hopefully considerably). Moving Morales out and signing some veteran at 2-5 times the money is a very bad idea. No, I know you haven't suggested that...I'm just talking in general terms. And he can be part of the solution because he can potentially give the Red Sox a better-than-league-average starting pitcher for very little money *at a spot where the average guy is far worse than league-average*. So it could give the Red Sox a significant competitive advantage in that spot, plus saving money that could be used to bolster the team elsewhere. That kind of situation is very, very valuable to any team. So yes, that would potentially qualify as Morales being part of the solution.