Orange Juiced

Yep, he got hammered by the Yankees. No question about it. But you realize that most of a starting pitcher's games will be against teams that are NOT the cream of the crop. Morales is NOT the next Sandy Koufax. But he certainly has shown that he has the ability to be an *above-average major league starting pitcher*. And for a million bucks, that is tremendous value. It allows them to spend a lot more money to go get a true #1. And that means that Morales could, in fact, very well be and important "part of the solution". Contrary to what you claimed.

Yes, I can see how I came across that way. Of course he was somewhat spotty. He's not an ace or a stud or any such thing at this point in his career (and he very well may never get to that point). Here are the games in which he started: Jun 17 at ChC: 5.0 ip, 4 h, 2 r, 2 er, 0 bb, 9 k Jun 23 vs Atl: 6.0 ip, 7 h, 3 r, 2 er, 1 bb, 8 k Jun 28 at Sea: 7.0 ip, 3 h, 0 r, 0 er, 2 bb, 7 k Jul 7 vs NYY: 3.1 ip, 6 h, 6 r, 6 er, 2 bb, 2 k Jul 13 at TB: 5.0 ip, 2 h, 0 r, 0 er, 3 b, 5 k Aug 5 vs Min: 6.0 ip, 3 h, 1 r, 1 er, 3 bb, 4 k Aug 11 at Cle: 5.1 ip, 2 h, 3 r, 3 er, 4 bb, 6 k Aug 17 at NYY: 5.1 ip, 6 h, 5 r, 5 er, 1 bb, 3 k Aug 23 vs LAA: 2.2 ip, 6 h, 6 r, 6 er, 2 bb, 3 k Like Morales, most pitchers tend to struggle against the better teams. That's how it works. That's not news. David Price is having a Cy Young caliber season, but let's compare his own stat line against the two best teams in the league by winning percentage, versus his overall season line. Season: 2.54 era, .612 ops against, 6.8 ip/s vs. NY: 3.20 era, .695 ops against, 6.3 ip/s (not bad, but still, quite a bit worse than his total season's line) vs. Tex: 6.97 era, .862 ops against, 5.0 ip/s (horrendous) So it's normal to pitch worse against the really good teams. He (Morales) did have two really good outings against high-quality teams (at TB and vs Atl). He was shut down due to injury after the LAA game, so maybe the injury had something to do with that one...who knows. Of his 9 starts, he had 3 bad ones, one so-so one (at Cle), and the rest were really good. 5 of 9 starts being "really good" makes him a better than average starting pitcher. Both he and Doubront are young and have pretty electric stuff, as evidenced by their k/9 numbers, which are outstanding. There's a TON of room to grow there. You seem to think that they are what they are, as if a 24-year old like Doubront has no room for improvement and as if a 26-year old Morales has peaked. I'm not saying the Sox should go to war with these two as their guys. I am saying that for you to suggest that there's no way these guys could be part of the pitching solution is extremely short-sighted. Who knows what they could become? They certainly are young enough and have a great deal of talent. With hard work and the right coaching, and a legit opportunity, they could both be very solid major-league starters.

You are obviously not paying attention. Franklin Morales, as a starting pitcher, wasn't just a decent #5 pitcher. He was a *better than average American League starting pitcher*. It is unclear whether he can keep that up over a full season, but his actual performance was really solid. If he, at his price, is your team's fifth-best starter, you're in pretty good shape. Of course, for the Sox this year, his starting stats made him essentially our best starting pitcher (at least, during the time he was starting). Which means the Sox sucked.

Lester has already begun to rebound. Not all the way, mind you, but he's moving in the right direction. Last 7 starts: 48.2 ip (almost exactly 7 ip per start), 3.70 era, 1.23 whip Compare that to his first 21 starts: 126.1 ip (6 ip per start), 5.49 era, 1.44 whip So yeah, he's improving. The Sox sorely could have used, for the entire season, the Jon Lester of the past 7 games. Last 5 games: 34.0 ip (again, just about 7 per start), 3.44 era, 1.32 whip Those numbers are very close to his "normal" numbers (from 2008-2011, his era was 3.33 and his whip was 1.24). I suspect we'll see a much-improved Jon Lester in 2013.

Doubront and Morales did wear down. They just hadn't pitched that many innings before. It's pretty normal actually. No surprise there.

Doubront is just 24 with a plus fastball (he hits 95 often) and a plus curve. His k/9 rate of 9.1 is proof that he has excellent stuff. He's still learning how to pitch at this level. I'm not suggesting he's the next Sandy Koufax. I am suggesting that he's a young kid with a lot of ability and it is in the Red Sox' best interest to continue to develop him. 95mph, 9.1 k/9 left-handed starters aren't exactly growing on trees. Morales is in a similar situation. Not as young (26), but a more proven MLB record (3.77 era this year) and similarly electric stuff. 9.0 k/9 shows that. Again, not necessarily the next great pitcher, but there's plenty there to work with and develop. There is no way we can say at this point that neither of these guys is "part of the solution". If Doubront can give the Sox 160 innings of 4.50 era ball at the cost of about $500k, that most definitely *is* part of the solution. That's a very valuable commodity. Can he do that? Who knows. He's given them 134 innings of 5.21 ball so far, so he'd need to improve. The average AL starting pitcher has an era of 4.44, averages 5.9 innings per start, has a .752 ops against, a 1.34 whip, and a 6.9 k/9. Can either Morales or Doubront put up those numbers? As a starter this year, here's what Morales has done, compared to the league average: Category - AL AVG - Morales ERA - 4.44 - 4.14 IP/S - 5.9 - 5.1 OPS - .752 - .732 WHIP - 1.34 - 1.25 K/9 - 6.9 - 9.3 So can Morales be part of the pitching solution? Absolutely, positively, without question, the answer is yes. Will he be? Different question entirely. But slotting Morales into the #5 spot would be a terrific asset for the Red Sox. He's performed in a starting role this year as a *better than average AL starter*. Having your #5 be a better than average starter, who is making just a million dollars, is a tremendous value.

Ortiz gets offered arbitration again or a one-year deal (can't remember the mechanics of it at this point). Maybe around $12-15 million. Coming off an injury, that's being generous to Ortiz. They suddenly can afford that kind of one-year contract. If he stinks or gets hurt, oh well, at least it's not a long commitment. If he plays great, fine, go through it all again next year. If Ortiz is so insulted by such an offer, he walks. But...to where? I think even he sees there aren't exactly a lot of landing spots for him. So I see him back on a one-year deal. Dice-K better be gone. Same with Aaron Cook. Lackey stays. Suddenly his contract isn't that bad, surprisingly. They might try to move him if they acquire other starting pitchers that make him expendable. But I think he'll be here. Salty should be traded. Someone out there will hopefully be swayed and impressed by his power, enough to overlook what appear to be somewhat significant holes in his game. Lavarnway takes the regular catching job. Ellsbury will be shopped, but I suspect he stays. At least for the time being. Why? Two reasons: (1) Because a healthy and productive Ellsbury will really help the team in 2013, and (2) his trade value is lower right now coming off an injury-plagued and unproductive season. They need his trade value up. So if he plays really well I could see him being moved during the season. But he'll likely report to camp with the Sox. They'll offer Ross a deal that will probably make most of us go...what? Like a 3-year, $24 million kind of deal. I hope they don't do that. I like Ross and am fine with him being here. Seems like a good fit. But I don't think that's the kind of investment they should be making in him. I think a 2-year, $12 million deal is about right. Gives them a useful player to hold the fort until Brentz, etc., are ready. But I think he stays. Bullpen? I'd like to move Melancon, but what are you going to get in a trade for him and his 7.50 era and 1.47 whip? Not much. Maybe a low-level prospect from a smaller-market team, because Melancon might be better in that kind of situation. I like Tazawa, Hill, Miller, Aceves, and even Padilla. Bailey stays as the closer. There are two concerns here: (1) Aceves. Has he burned his bridges with the Sox? He's a pretty good pitcher who was amazing for them down the stretch of last year. He's a perfect 6th-7th inning guy who can go multiple innings in consecutive days. Excellent bullpen asset. But he's insane, apparently. I think they should keep him and try to work with his...um....issues. (2) Bard. He's done poorly since being recalled, which doesn't surprise anyone seeing as how he was doing poorly in the minors in the first place. He's a terribly lost asset if he never regains what he had in 2010 and most of 2011. But if he does regain it, he's suddenly one of the most dynamic bullpen weapons in the league. A lot is riding on this guy. But a bullpen of Tazawa, Hill, Miller, Aceves, a good Bard, and Bailey is really good. It'll be interesting to see what happens if they do acquire another quality starting pitcher to go with Lester, Buchholz, and Lackey. Who gets the 5th spot? Doubront? Morales? Another veteran? If it's not Doubront or Morales, do either/both of them end up in the bullpen? And if so, who gets bumped? Lots of interesting questions here.

I do wonder what he'll get on the open market. It's an interesting case. I do think most teams see that he has vast potential but isn't really living up to that potential. And that suggests something is wrong with him - be it attitude, work ethic, whatever. His ops+ by season: 2007: 136 2008: 108 2009: 82 2010: 106 2011: 115 2012: 106 TOT: 105 If you look at that you see that he's not performing at the plate much better than an average hitter. That's not worth big bucks. But then you see what else he can do: steal bases, play defense, and note his pretty nice WAR numbers (according to fangraphs): 2007: 4.5 2008: 5.0 2009: 2.4 2010: 4.0 2011: 4.1 2012: 2.6 TOT: 22.6 (3.8 per year) 3.8 WAR per year, at about 5.5 million per win = more than $20 million a year. So if you look at it *that* way, he's worth big bucks. It's going to be very interesting to see just how much he gets paid this offseason. You get him, you take a risk that he's going to never live up to a big contract. But if he does put it all together, the guy can be an absolute baseball monster.

So if/when Ellsbury becomes a free agent after the 2013 season, how much do the Yankees spend to acquire him?

Papelbon is a great closer. I'm glad, though, that the Sox aren't paying that contract. Bailey is a very, very good closer as well and he's going to make a lot less than Paps is. Bailey as the closer next year, Aceves and, yes, Bard, as the 7-8 inning guys, and guys like Miller/Hill/Tazawa fill in the blanks. Bullpen will be fine next year. Spend the money on starting pitching and a bat.

It was just an update, that's all.

Gonzo this year: - with Boston: .300/.343/.469/.812, 114 ops+ - with L.A.D.: .260/.321/.380/.701, 94 ops+

That will be incredible theater. Get the popcorn ready.

He might be. He has loads of talent and just hasn't quite put it all together yet. I do wonder what he'll command for a salary.

Not to get the thread too off track, but another option I think the Sox should consider is BJ Upton. We all know how he killed the Sox in 2008, but more recently, he's put up these numbers: 2010: .237/.322/.424/.745, 106 ops+, 18 hr, 62 rbi, 42 sb 2011: .243/.331/.429/.759, 115 ops+, 23 hr, 81 rbi, 36 sb 2012: .250/.302/.422/.724, 103 ops+, 17 hr, 61 rbi, 27 sb He's 27 now so he's just entering his prime. He's averaged, according to fangraphs, 3.5 WAR the past 3 seasons (and it'll probably be a little higher since there's still some of this season left for him to add to that). At about $5.3 million per WAR, that makes him "worth" about $19 million a year. He's a free agent after this season, but I bet a lot of teams will be scared off by his low obp. He's essentially a slightly slower, but more powerful, version of Carl Crawford. But he's right-handed, and he's better suited for Fenway than Crawford was. Moreover, he won't command *nearly* the kind of money Crawford ended up getting, despite him being "worth" about $19 million a season. Look at his spray chart here (http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/player/b.j.-upton/hitchart/200917?q=b.j.-upton). That would look very nice in Fenway. I would think he'd be a 25 homer, 80 rbi, 30 sb kind of player in Boston, and I think they could get him for probably something in the $13-15 million a year range. For a guy who will be just 28 next year, we're talking about a prime player. I know the last OF free agent the Sox picked up from Tampa didn't work out so well, but Upton (a) is younger, ( is more of a power hitter, © his swing is more suited for Fenway than Crawford's ever was, and (d) he'd come significantly cheaper than Crawford did. I don't love the obp, but he does a lot of terrific things that the Sox could use. Plug that guy into the LF position, and in the #5 or #6 spot in the lineup, and watch what he can do. Is he worth a look-see?

Well sure then. Go ahead, Cherington, make that offer. Let's see if Ellsbury accepts it. I have a lot of reasons to doubt that he would.

Re: the bolded part: SERIOUSLY? You can see no reason why Jacoby Ellsbury would decline a 2/30 offer from the Red Sox? Um...how about because some other team is likely to offer at least 3/48? That's more guaranteed money than 2/30. And there's a good chance that somebody will offer even more than that. I like Jacoby as a player and think someone will pay through the nose for a guy with his potential. I hope it isn't the Red Sox, because they'd be paying that for a guy with tremendous ability, but no consistency, as you pointed out. And he'd be spending almost all of that contract on the wrong side of 30. You'd be paying in-his-prime dollars for a guy no longer in his prime. So no thanks. But yeah, hypothetically, it would be great to have him for two more years at $15 million per year, let him establish more value, then go to another team, which opens the door for Bradley Jr. Sure, I like the plan.

Actually, with respect to the sabermetrics comment, it appears from all we know now that the sabermetrics part (headed by Bill James) was largely *ignored* over the past couple of years, and it's that part that they'll be trying to get back to. And they did play together very well for most of last year. Just a bad first 14 days and a horrendous last month. The other 4 1/2 months they were by FAR the dominant team in baseball. But man, when they were bad, they were BAD.

Absolutely. But they need a new heart and soul. Because they are dead men walking. There is no life to this team, no drive, no energy. I'm sure the guys are trying, but anyone who has played competitive sports knows there is something intangible about a winning spirit, about a player or a team with heart and guts. There's no stat for it, so the guys at SoSH can decry it all they want, but I'm guessing that not many guys there have ever actually played anything competitive before, because intangible stuff is REAL. And this team sure doesn't have it.

On August 31, 2011, the Red Sox were at 83-52 (.615), on pace for 100 wins, with a one and a half-game lead on the Yankees for the AL East division, and 9 games up in the Wild Card race (which we weren't even thinking about b/c they had that sewn up and they were making a push for the #1 seed in the AL). Since that moment, the Red Sox have gone 69-94 (.423). Incredibly, they missed the playoffs last year and this year it looks like they'll finish last in the division, with one of the worst 3 records in the league (along with Cleveland and Minnesota). Right now the race for last in the league looks like this: Min 55-79 -- Cle 57-78 1.5 Tor 60-74 5.0 Bos 62-74 6.0 The Sox wrap up the season with two more in Seattle (where they haven't won all year), and then have 6 against Toronto, 6 against New York, 6 against Tampa Bay, and 6 against Baltimore. So there are no "easy" games left on the schedule. I could easily see them going 6-20 in their last 26, which probably will vault them past all those teams into the 14th spot in the American League standings. So all this to say: I'm extremely excited that they have a very real chance at a top 5 pick in next year's MLB draft, so perhaps they can land an absolute stud. That would be nice. But holy crap what a season.

Agreed. Why in the world Cook and Dice-K are pitching games for the Boston Red Sox is a complete mystery.

Could be. I'm new enough to this site to not really know all the different forums. Mods, feel free to move this or merge it as necessary.

As part of the great rebuilding process, the Red Sox are going to need to figure out their SS situation. I know there's a thread already dedicated to Iglesias, and that's cool. I do not think he's the long-term solution at SS and I'm totally fine if they try to trade him this offseason or, if they think he can be a super-defensive utility guy, maybe he sticks in that role for them at some point. I think Xander Bogaerts is the next great Red Sox SS. I know he has a frame that many suggest will be too big for SS, but right now he's 6'3", 175, and even if he fills out to, say, 200, he'll still be in ok range for a SS. Here are some terrific SS who have been big: Jeter: 6'3", 195 lbs ARod: 6'3", 225 lbs Ripken Jr: 6'4", 200 lbs Renteria: 6'1", 200 lbs So yes, he'd be big, but not off the charts big. In any event, I think it'll take him many years to fill out to that size, so the Sox should get at least 5-6 years of him at SS before a position change is needed. And that would give them enough time to find a replacement. But what's Bogaerts' floor, and what's the ceiling? Obviously, let's not say his floor is to be out of baseball in a week due to some awful injury. Let's say he stays healthy. His minor league stats are: 2011 (18 years old) - Greenville (A) - 265 ab, 16 hr, 45 rbi, .260/.324/.509/.834 2012 (19 years old) - both levels - 469 ab, 20 hr, 81 rbi, .307/.374/.525/.899 - Salem (A) - 384 ab, 15 hr, 64 rbi, .302/.378/.505/.833 - Portland (AA) - 85 ab, 5 hr, 17 rbi, .329/.356/.612/.967 The kid clearly has power. And for a SS, tremendous power. He's not a 24-25 year old either. He's just 19. I would suggest his ceiling is a perennial all-star at SS, then 3b as he hits his late 20s. I would suggest his floor is a guy who teases with the power, but can't field the SS well enough at the MLB level, but whose power keeps him around, so he plays 3b but doesn't get on base well enough to start. If I had to bet, I'd bet closer to the ceiling than the floor. I love the potential of a left side of the Sox' infield of Middlebrooks and Bogaerts for years. That's a lot of power and potential, for not much money at all.

Heh. Well, who knows. I mean, you can't just plug one player's stats into another team because we have no idea, for example, if Reddick would have been producing like this if he was here in Boston. No idea at all. But just for fun, let's play the "replace Red Sox player A with former Red Sox prospect B" game. Let's start in RF. Replace the Red Sox' RF production with Reddick. Sox: 501 ab, 75 r, 15 hr, 72 rbi, .269/.330/.449/.779 Reddick: 493 ab, 72 r, 28 hr, 73 rbi, .260/.326/.501/.827 *Conclusion: Solid upgrade. Now let's move to LF. Replace the Sox' LF production with a combo of Moss and Murphy (they total about the same number of AB as the Red Sox' LFs have). Sox: 501 ab, 80 r, 12 hr, 65 rbi, .273/.342/.425/.767 Moss: 181 ab, 29 r, 15 hr, 34 rbi, .254/.322/.552/.874 Murphy: 353 ab, 53 r, 12 hr, 51 rbi, .317/.395/.501/.896 *Conclusion: Sizeable upgrade. How about SS? Replace the Sox' SS production with Jed Lowrie. Sox: 523 ab, 60 r, 13 hr, 66 rbi, .258/.288/.392/.679 Lowrie: 285 ab, 38 r, 14 hr, 36 rbi, .253/.343/.456/.799 *Conclusion: Depending on who fills in the rest of the AB, potential upgrade So the offense would be upgraded, on the whole, by a pretty good amount. But it's the pitching that really would do wonders. Let's replace Bard/Cook/Doubront/Matsuzaka with Masterson/Sanchez. Bard: 13 g, 57.0 ip, 5.37 era, 1.63 whip Cook: 13 g, 70.2 ip, 5.35 era, 1.36 whip Doubront: 24 g, 130.2 ip, 5.03 era, 1.50 whip Matsuzaka: 6 g, 30.0 ip, 5.10 era, 1.27 whip TOT: 56 g, 288.1 ip, about a 5.20 era, about a 1.40 whip Masterson: 28 g, 172.1 ip, 4.91 era, 1.45 whip Sanchez: 25 g, 155.0 ip, 4.24 era, 1.35 whip TOT: 53 g, 327.1 ip, about a 4.60 era, about a 1.40 whip So given the increased # of innings per game, and reduced era by about a half-run, these changes could have made a significant difference. Ah, but whatever. This is just fun speculating, obviously. Here's what it makes me really consider though, on a serious note: I would love to see the Sox groom their young talent and let them play. I'd love to see a future lineup of: C - Lavarnway 1b - not sure we have a young stud 1b in the pipeline 2b - Pedroia 3b - Middlebrooks SS - Bogaerts OF - Bradley, Brentz, Jacobs (I'm assuming they trade Jacoby or that he signs elsewhere) SP - Lester, Buchholz, DeLaRosa, Webster, Barnes RP - Workman, Britton, Owens, Bard (hopefully back to his good self), Pimentel, etc. I'd be very excited about a team that looked like that. Hopefully the prospects pan out.

He wasn't a former Red Sox prospect. He played his first three seasons with the Pirates from 2000-2002. I was trying to think of young prospects the Sox traded away, not simply a list of former Red Sox players.