Orange Juiced

What a west coast NL-only road trip! Going 4-2, taking down the defending champs (though they're not as good this year, but still) and the hottest team in baseball over the last 2 months....sweet. Meanwhile, look at the starting pitching during these six games: Lester (vs. SF): 8.1 ip, 6 h, 0 r, 0 er, 2 bb, 3 k Peavy (vs. SF): 5.2 ip, 5 h, 1 r, 1 er, 1 bb, 4 k Doubront (vs. SF): 8.0 ip, 5 h, 1 r, 1 er, 1 bb, 3 k Lackey (vs. LA): 8.0 ip, 3 h, 2 r, 2 er, 0 bb, 6 k Lester (vs. LA): 7.1 ip, 3 h, 1 r, 1 er, 4 bb, 6 k Peavy (vs. LA): 9.0 ip, 3 h, 1 r, 1 er, 1 bb, 5 k TOTAL: 46.1 ip, 25 h, 6 r, 6 er, 9 bb, 27 k, 1.17 era, 0.73 whip, 5.2 k/9 I mean, that is *dominant* stuff right there. The amazing thing is that, with this starting pitching, the Sox only went 4-2. We had the bullpen meltdown in the Peavy SF game, and then got shut out by Nolasco in the Lackey LA start. But holy smokes, it's nice to have a rotation whereby every night out you expect to get a good start. Hopefully Buchholz* comes back strong at the start of September and replaces Dempster, and then the rotation is a healthy/effective Buchholz, a renewed Lester, Lackey, Peavy, and Doubront. That would be sweet. *He didn't exactly light the world on fire last night in his rehab start, but the key isn't so much the results, it's how his body feels afterward.

Well, Lester was terrific again today. Add this latest to his nice string of performances: 6.1 ip, 7 h, 2 r, 2 er, 0 bb, 8 k 7.0 ip, 4 h, 0 r, 0 er, 2 bb, 8 k 4.1 ip, 11 h, 6 r, 6 er, 0 bb, 6 k 7.0 ip, 5 h, 3 r, 1 er, 2 bb, 4 k 6.1 ip, 6 h, 3 r, 2 er, 2 bb, 3 k 8.1 ip, 6 h, 0 r, 0 er, 2 bb, 3 k 7.1 ip, 3 h, 1 r, 1 er, 4 bb, 6 k TOT: 46.2 ip, 42 h, 15 r, 12 er, 12 bb, 38 k, 2.31 era, 1.16 whip, 7.3 k/9 And of his last 7 starts, 6 have been quality starts. He's averaged 6.2 ip per start, which is also pretty solid. Last 4 games: 29.0 ip, 19 h, 7 r, 4 er, 10 bb, 16 k, 1.24 era, 1.00 whip, 5.0 k/9 If he keeps pitching like this, we have our "ace" back.

Ryu has reverse splits: vs. RHB: .242/.292/.337/.630 vs. LHB: .268/.325/.425/.750 That's gotta be the primary reason, I would think. Then Drew sits tomorrow against a LHP with more traditional splits in Capuano. vs. RHB: .312/.353/.513/.867 vs. LHB: .265/.286/.314/.599 So if one of the goals is to put Bogaerts in a position to be successful, this might be a good way to do it.

They both will be. Neither will be unanimous, because some dope voter will vote against them on "principle". But they are absolute lock first-ballot HOFers, make no mistake about it.

I hate the Yankees with the passion of a thousand burning stars, but the man in this picture above is one of my all-time favorite players. I can't help it. He's a tremendous person, and represents everything that is right about the game of baseball. It stinks that he pitches for the team of Satan, but I cannot help but like and respect the guy a ton. It helps that I have actually met him.

Looks like the Rays are busy trying to add anything that might help. The crappy thing is, they just might work.

I think if the four AL playoff teams (after the WC game) were Boston/Texas/Detroit/Tampa, that would make for two excellent series. And honestly, the NL should be pretty fun as well: LAD/StL/Pit/Atl. Just seeing the Pirates there makes it fun.

AL East 1. TB 2. Bos 1 GB 3. NYY 4 GB 4. Bal 8 GB 5. Tor AL Central 1. Det 2. Cle 7 GB 3. KC 10 GB 4. Min 5. ChW AL West 1. Tex 2. Oak 6 GB 3. LAA 4. Sea 5. Hou NL East 1. Atl 2. Was 3. Phi 4. NYM 5. Mia NL Central 1. StL 2. Pit 2 GB 3. Cin 4 GB 4. ChC 5. Mil NL West 1. LAD 2. Ari 12 GB 3. SF 4. Col 5. SD Playoffs: AL Seeds 1. Det 2. Tex 3. TB 4. Bos 5. NYY NL Seeds 1. LAD 2. Atl 3. StL 4. Pit 5. Cin

How about an unproductive AB that ends in a double play? Aside from his 159 K, he also has 13 GIDP. Dude makes a LOT of outs.

Yeah, that would be a good trip. I'd take that in a heartbeat. And yes, big break not facing Kershaw especially.

Good catch. Here are some details: http://nesn.com/2013/01/report-mike-napolis-contract-details-include-bonuses-based-on-plate-appearances-active-roster-days/ Speier reports that Napoli’s contract includes the following incentives that could increase the total value of the contract to $13 million in 2013. Active roster bonuses: $500,000 each for 30, 60, 90, 120 days on the active roster Plate appearance bonuses: $500,000 each for 300, 325, 350, 375 plate appearances: $1 million each for 400, 475, 550, 625 plate appearances Catch-all bonus: If Napoli is active for a minimum of 165 days in 2013, he will get the full $8 million in incentives for a total of $13 million. EDIT: And I'm really glad that the 3/39 deal got nixed.

Agreed. It's a good thing that he's only signed for $5 million!!

"When" we come down with Abreu? I hope you're right, but the last Cuban I wanted (the pitcher Miguel Gonzalez), the Sox lost out. So it's not at all clear to me that they're willing to pony up the bucks to get him. Though next year there will be a glaring need and money to spend. Here's a good article on the Abreu market: http://www.mlbdailydish.com/2013/8/17/4630970/mlb-jose-dariel-abreu-free-agent-market-yasiel-puig-yoenis-cespedes

The mods can merge it if they want.

Line since his recall: 11 g, 34 ab, 2 hr, 7 rbi, .441/.535/.706/1.241 Making up for Napoli's suckage, I guess.

Napoli's ops on July 25 was .825. Since then here's his line: 21 g, 72 ab, 1 hr, 6 rbi, .139/.271/.236/.507 Ouch. Last 7 games: 7 g, 23 ab, 1 hr, 2 rbi, .087/.160/.261/.421 Double ouch.

Well, yesterday was a pretty good day for the Sox. Stomped SF, and Tampa lost. Day off today and root for Toronto to beat NY. Then the pitching the next three games is scheduled as follows: BOS at LAD Lackey vs. Nolasco Lester vs. Ryu Peavy vs. Capuano NY at TB Kuroda vs. Hernandez Sabathia vs. Archer Nova vs. Price Take 2 of 3 from LA, and I guess hope NY takes 2 of 3 from TB?

They are different topics. If you want to merge them, you're the mod. Do what you gotta do.

This team absolutely has the chops to go on a big run. They have very good starting pitching, and will get an ace (or an ace quality...he might not be an ace due to his injury history) back in the rotation when Buchholz returns. And I think Bogaerts will adjust to major-league pitching and be a helpful factor down the stretch. I also think they'll avoid a long losing streak. Still haven't lost more than 3 in a row. But they do need to right the ship and get momentum moving forward again. It's gonna be a very fun last 6 weeks of the season.

Let's face it - the Sox are going to be in a crazy pennant race this year. Which makes for a very exciting September, and, given what we experienced in September of 2011 and all of 2012, is something we should all be grateful for.

Among the four top AL East teams: Boston 1 at SF (56-69) 3 at LAD (73-52) 3 vs Bal (67-58) 3 vs ChW (50-74) 3 vs Det (73-52) 4 at NYY (66-59) 3 at TB (72-52) 3 vs NYY (66-59) 3 vs Bal (67-58) 3 vs Tor (57-69) 2 at Col (59-68) 3 at Bal (67-58) Home: 18 (Sox are 40-23 (.635) at home) Away: 16 (Sox are 34-31 (.523) on the road) Total combined opponents winning %: .515 *Note: The Sox play 19 games against the other top 3 ALEast teams. That trip to Colorado might be a colossal pain as well. Tampa Bay 1 at Bal (67-58) 3 vs NYY (66-59) 1 at KC (64-60) 3 vs LAA (55-70) 3 at Oak (71-54) 4 at LAA (55-70) 3 at Sea (58-67) 3 vs Bos (74-54) 3 at Min (55-69) 4 vs Tex (73-53) 4 vs Bal (67-58) 3 at NYY (66-59) 3 at Tor (57-69) Home: 17 (Rays are 41-23 (.641) at home) Away: 21 (Rays are 31-29 (.517) on the road) Total combined opponents winning %: .509 *Note: Tampa has 14 games left against the other top 3 ALEast teams. Tampa has but two scheduled days off the rest of the season, and they have that big west coast trip still to go. New York 2 vs Tor (57-69) 3 at TB (72-52) 3 at Tor (57-69) 3 vs Bal (67-58) 3 vs ChW (50-74) 3 vs Bos (74-54) 4 at Bal (67-58) 3 at Bos (74-54) 3 at Tor (57-69) 3 vs SF (56-69) 3 vs TB (72-52) 3 at Hou (41-84) Home: 17 (Yanks are 36-27 (.571) at home) Away: 19 (Yanks are 30-32 (.484) on the road) Total combined opponents winning %: .494 *Note: New York has 21 games left against the other top 3 ALEast teams. That last series should be an automatic sweep for NY, which may come in very handy for them. Baltimore 1 vs TB (72-52) 3 vs Oak (71-54) 3 at Bos (74-54) 3 at NYY (66-59) 3 at Cle (68-58) 4 vs ChW (50-74) 4 vs NYY (66-59) 3 at Tor (57-69) 3 at Bos (74-54) 4 at TB (72-52) 3 vs Tor (57-69) 3 vs Bos (74-54) Home: 18 (Orioles are 35-28 (.556) at home) Away: 19 (Orioles are 32-30 (.516) on the road) Total combined opponents winning %: .531 *Note: Baltimore has 17 games left against the other top 3 ALEast teams. They finish with 20 straight games against ALEast opponents (including Toronto). Now, not counting difficulty of opponent, if we just go with each team's home and road winning percentages, and project those out over the rest of the season, here's what we end up with: Boston - Current record: 74-54 - Home games: 18 x .635 = 11.4 wins - Road games: 16 x .523 = 8.4 wins - Projected record: 93.8 wins Tampa Bay - Current record: 72-52 - Home games: 17 x .641 = 10.9 wins - Road games: 21 x .517 = 10.9 wins - Projected record: 93.8 wins New York - Current record: 66-59 - Home games: 17 x .571 = 9.7 wins - Road games: 19 x .484 = 9.2 wins - Projected record: 84.9 wins Baltimore - Current record: 67-58 - Home games: 18 x .556 = 10.0 wins - Road games: 19 x .516 = 9.8 wins - Projected record: 86.8 wins Based on this, I give Tampa the edge, because the projections put them even with Boston (exactly), but their strength of schedule is a little easier (.509 vs. .515 opponents' winning percentage). That may be worth one game, and one game is all you need. The Yankees are also a very different team at the moment than they were most of the year, so using this method to project is unfair to them. So here's my final projected standings: Tampa Bay: 94-68 Boston: 93-69 New York: 90-72 Baltimore: 85-77 And I think, unfortunately, that Boston ends up playing New York in that stupid playoff game, and we will have Lester or Peavy vs. Kuroda. I'd say Buchholz, but I think the Sox will use him that last weekend trying to edge out Tampa, but the Yanks, given their last 3 games against Houston, can probably set up for Kuroda.

Here are the records of the various AL contenders in August: TB: 8-8 Bos: 9-10 Bal: 8-9 NY: 10-8 Det: 12-7 Cle: 9-10 KC: 11-9 Oak: 8-9 Tex: 14-4 So really only two team have made a lot of headway this month: Texas and Detroit. The Rays, Sox, Yankees, Orioles, Royals, Guardians, and A's really have just been treading water...maybe picking up or losing a game or two, but not much movement. In other words, the Red Sox aren't the only team just kind of muddling their way through the dog days of August.

I'm with you, believe me. Though he was ok for a couple of years here. Let's not forget he was a key guy in the rotation when they won a World Series.

Lester still has plenty of good stuff left to be a very good pitcher. Good (not great) fastball (92-94), good curve, decent cutter, decent change. If he can just locate and challenge hitters and trust his stuff, he should be fine. It's when he nibbles that drives me crazy and gets him in trouble.

He's just 32 - he should be able to pitch back in Japan just fine, I would think.