Orange Juiced

Yep, but for a team with the Sox' resources, a 6/60 deal really isn't crippling. It's not ideal, but the relatively low AAV means you could eat it if you had to.

Well, even if they lose in the ALDS (which I don't think they will), this season has already been a smashing success, in every conceivable way. I thought they'd win roughly 88-90 games and be in the playoff hunt at the end of the season. I thought that was their ceiling, and if they got into the playoffs somehow, well great, anything can happen. But win the division in dominating fashion? No way. I didn't think they'd win upper 90's games. I was arguing before the season started that they viewed this as a bridge year (I hate the term, but you know what I mean) to when all these prospects would start coming up and making an impact. I thought they wanted to field a competitive team without giving away any of their young studs. I thought they wanted to structure their payroll so that they wouldn't be locked into any gruesome Crawford-type deals, and that when this bridge was crossed, they'd have been competitive, but ready to turn it over to the next generation of homegrown stars. That was the plan, I thought. I did NOT think they would come out and just dominate baseball this year. I didn't expect Buchholz to be undefeated with a sub-2 era. I expected Lackey to be pretty decent, but not this good. I didn't expect Uehara to be the best reliever in the game. I'm just amazed at how this all came together. Other than the injuries, and the struggles of Middlebrooks (who I thought would have a better season), pretty much everything has fallen into place for them this year. This is magical. And I don't think they're done yet. I think they win the ALDS and play in the ALCS. From there....who knows. But what a ride it's been. And it's all happened without forfeiting any of their young stud prospects, so the future looks just as bright (brighter, even) as it did during spring training. Absolutely amazing season. Well done, everybody.

Nava was doing well the first two months: .285/.390/.460/.850. I think a lot of people expected him to kind of fall off, but since June 1, here's his line: .312/.383/.433/.816 So a little less power, but still getting on base at about the same clip, with a higher batting average. In other words, he's been steady all season. Very nice season he's having, no doubt.

I've played sports at the collegiate level, and I've coached at numerous levels (obviously not at the pro level so maybe this is totally apples-to-oranges here). But I've seen all sorts of people improve their talent level. I've seen runners get faster with better technique. I've seen bad shooters become good shooters (and good shooters become great shooters) as they spend hours and hours and hours in the gym. I've seen pitchers take leaps forward as they master new pitches and gain core strength to give them an additional 5-7 mph on their fastball. So maybe we're talking different things when we use the term "talent". Because if you saw some of the people I'm talking about at the beginning of their progression, you'd say they don't have much talent. But if you saw them at the end of the their progression, you'd say they have a lot of talent. But again, maybe we're talking about different things.

Are you suggesting that talent can't improve over time?

But with 40-hr power, not 25-hr power. Big difference. Plus, he doesn't have a bad hip, and he's 5 years younger. And on a per-year basis, he'll almost certainly cost a lot less. (well, less than a qualifying offer, anyway)

Well I really want Abreu. But I'm fine with offering Napoli the QO, and if he doesn't sign, fine, you get a valuable draft pick. And if he does sign, then you can find a way to get him 300+ ab and have a really sweet RH power bat off the bench in the playoffs. Or, if Abreu struggles, then Napoli plays more and you use Abreu as the RH power bat off the bench.

He's been pretty good, and I hope you're right. Here's his velocity chart from fangraphs (http://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfxo.aspx?playerid=5088&position=P&pitch=FA). Look at the difference in velocity from early in the year til now. Huge difference of about 3-4 mph. He's got great stuff, now that his velocity is back, but his control is what scares me in big spots. But yeah, if he keeps this up, he'll be a huge asset. This is the thing: we can complain about Farrell's bullpen usage the past few weeks, but really, I'm sure at this point he's just trying to find out what he really has that can be used in the playoffs. He had to see if Thornton was up to the task. He has to see if Morales is. He has to find these things out, and that may mean costing us a game or two in the process. But if Morales can answer the bell for this bullpen, that's HUGE.

The question is: If Napoli finishes with 25 hr, 100 rbi (roughly), and a 125 ops+, would he even sign a QO? Wouldn't some team out there be willing to give him a 2-year deal? He's only 31. I could see a team offering him a 2/24 deal, and wouldn't that be tempting for him as opposed to a 1/13 QO? And if you want Abreu, and Napoli takes the QO, you've just got to work things out for one year. I think you could mix and match Napoli at 1b (sharing time with Abreu), a little backup C (spelling Salty/Ross), and some DH (giving Papi a rest). I bet you could find 300+ ab for Napoli that way. It's probably not worth $13 million, but it's just for one year, and it's nice to have that kind of RH power available. So it wouldn't be the worst thing in the world to have that situation, frankly.

If you click on that link you'll see exactly how I think the Sox CAN afford that team and stay under the luxury tax threshold.

Well, here's my proposed team for 2014: http://www.talksox.com/forum/threads/16627-Where-to-Spend-the-Money-Next-Year Primary Lineup: CF Ellsbury RF Victorino 2b Pedroia DH Ortiz 1b Abreu C McCann 3b Middlebrooks LF Bradley/Gomes SS Bogaerts That's a 1,000 run team.

$10 million a year is cheaper than $14 million a year, by my math. So yes, he'll be cheaper than Drew - obviously I meant on an annual basis, seeing as though Abreu would get a multi-year deal and Drew just the one year QO.

Yep, we are in agreement on that.

The best solution that I can see to maximize resources is this: 1b - Abreu 2b - Pedroia 3b - Middlebrooks SS - Bogaerts Offer Drew a QO with the understanding that he'll be the backup going into the season. If he signs it, then he does so understanding that he's the backup. Ok, he'd be an expensive backup, but at least he agrees to that up front. If he doesn't sign it then the Sox get draft pick compensation. Based on that, I'd assume that Drew would *not* sign the QO, making him a free agent. He wouldn't be back, the Sox would get draft compensation, but also wouldn't have to shell out $14 million for him. Abreu gets $10 million a year, meaning this infield is $4 million cheaper than it would be with WMB at 1b, Drew at SS, and Bogaerts at 3b. That $4 million can get you a good reliever, or can go into the Ellsbury fund. Not only would it be cheaper, it would have the potential to be MUCH better offensively. Because Abreu projects to be a 30+ homer, .850 ops kind of guy. Drew can't sniff that.

They aren't going to put Middlebrooks at 1b next year, unless it's an emergency. His bat and glove play better at 3b, and 1b is a MUCH easier position to fill than 3b is. Signing Drew so that they move Bogaerts to 3b and Middlebrooks to 1b, when they can just sign Abreu for less money than Drew (and he's potentially a MUCH better offensive player than Drew is), and thus keep Bogaerts and Middlebrooks at their natural positions, would be irresponsible. Unless they don't think Middlebrooks is ever going to be a 3b and/or that Bogaerts really is a 3b and not a SS. Then, and only then, would it make some sense.

By all accounts, Bogaerts projects to be much better than Drew. The Red Sox, obviously, hope Bogaerts is everything they hope he can be. So you don't pay a guy $14 million and then hope he's your backup.

What did you think I was saying?

It wasn't an instructive comment. Here was your original (edited) comment: How is that "instructive"? It is an insult is what it is. Now I'm not offended by it, but you certainly meant it that way. It was a disparaging, condescending remark with no instructive value. Now, more to the point: Did you understand what I meant by it?

I'm not offended at all. I just thought that, in the midst of baseball discussion, it was stupid to comment on that, and it contributed nothing to the conversation.

According to Cot's, here is the list of potential free agent SS after this season: Alfredo Amezaga Clint Barmes Willie Bloomquist Jamey Carroll * Alexi Casilla * Stephen Drew Yunel Escobar * Rafael Furcal Alex Gonzalez Cesar Izturis Derek Jeter * John McDonald Jhonny Peralta Brendan Ryan *Contract contains an option for 2014. I don't know that Peralta would sign to be a backup. Someone will likely want him as a starter. You'd need someone like Jamey Carroll most likely.

I do think it's a big deal. Taz has generally been a good reliever. Breslow is pretty solid. But man, on the whole, the 7th-8th innings scare me.

So you felt it worth commenting on. Super. Very helpful stuff there, 700.

It's one think keeping a veteran like Valentin. It's another signing a guy like Drew who would otherwise be a free agent, and then just have him kicking around in case Bogaerts falters. Of course, what will chap everyone's hide is if they let Drew go and then Bogaerts suffers a serious injury (which would suck all by itself) and then we don't have Drew OR Bogaerts playing SS.

I haven't been that many places: Fenway, Yankee Stadium (both the old and new), Shea Stadium (never been to CitiField), Camden Yards (AMAZING), Philadelphia (the old stadium), Nationals Park (another great place), and Coors Field. I highly recommend Camden Yards at some point. There are actually a lot of places I'd like to go.

He's an effective platoon player for sure. But his career splits are not even really splits - they're virtually identical numbers against either LHP or RHP, so that suggests he would be pretty good not just as a platoon player.