Orange Juiced

To be fair, all you did was list Boston as the 2nd place team in the AL East. That doesn't guarantee them a WC berth. Maybe two teams from the NL West or a team from the Central gets those two WC spots. Hence Big Papi's question.

The biggest reason I am optimistic about this team the rest of the way is starting pitching. Adding Peavy was, IMO, a really important move. Now every night they can throw out a quality arm. It means they're not likely to have any long losing streaks (they might lose a few in a row, but it would be very surprising for a rotation of five good pitchers to all be bad for a long period of time). They should be competitive most every night. And if Buchholz comes back healthy in September (who knows...), that'll just make their rotation even better. Remember in the last month of 2011, they were throwing out Tim Wakefield (5.12 era), Andrew Miller (5.54 era), Kyle Weiland (7.66 era), and John Lackey (6.41)? And then even their two best starters (Beckett and Lester) were bad that month: Beckett: 4 g, 5.48 era Lester: 6 g, 5.40 era I mean, where the Sox are at right now compared to that is night and day. I think if they lose the division, Tampa (or Baltimore, I guess) is going to have to come and take it. I don't think the Sox are going to give it away.

Well, yeah, it was a pretty bad month, but at that point in his career, you chalk it up to SSS. But the move to the rotation was a real mess. Though it's weird. Here was his first month's game log as a starter in 2012: 5.0 ip, 8 h, 5 er, 1 bb, 6 k (ok, pretty awful) 6.2 ip, 4 h, 1 er, 7 bb, 7 k (WAY too many walks, but otherwise really good) 7.0 ip, 6 h, 2 er, 1 bb, 6 k (excellent start by any measure) So his first three starts totaled: 18.2 ip, 18 h, 8 er, 9 bb, 19 k, 3.86 era, 1.45 whip, 9.2 k/9 So the walks were real problematic, but otherwise the production was pretty solid. Then May came and he had a few decent outings and a few horrible ones. He compiled a May stat line of 34.0 ip, 33 h, 19 er, 21 bb, 13 k, 5.03 era, 1.59 whip, 3.4 k/9. So he was coming unglued, really. A ton of baserunners, very few K's, and a lot of runs allowed. The last straw was his lone June start: 1.2 ip, 1 h, 5 er, 6 bb, 2 k. In other words, the walks were just killing him. And it hasn't improved. The last two seasons in the minors, he's allowed 46 walks in just 44.2 ip. That's unbelievably bad. And he's walking all these guys while losing his velocity at the same time. He tops out now in the low 90's, maybe upwards of 94. He used to hit 99 and sit at 97. So everything has pretty much gone to the crapper for Bard. It's a little surprising he's still on the 40-man roster.

And a deep laser to right-center that Hoes made a great catch on...if he doesn't make that catch it's a certain double, probably a triple.

I read a report earlier in the week from a Mets' beat writer that said that the Mets will be all-in on Ellsbury. So either way, the Sox look to have to pay through the nose to retain him.

I would agree. So the Sox would end up getting a very helpful draft pick out of it. That's probably the best-case scenario for Boston, as I would be surprised if they sign him to a mega-deal. But hey, you never know.

It is amazing how much of a disaster the Bard move turned out to be (the move to the rotation). He went from one of the most dominant relievers in the game to.....being just hideous in every conceivable way now. I mean: From 2009-2011: 2.88 era, 154 era+, 1.06 whip, 9.7 k/9 Then 2012-2013: 6.27 era, 69 era+, 1.78 whip, 5.8 k/9 And even going to the minors hasn't helped. 2012-13 minor league stats: 44 g, 44.2 ip, 44 h, 34 er, 46 bb, 38 k, 6.85 era, 2.01 whip, 7.6 k/9 I mean, just abysmal. Sad, sad story.

If nothing else, it might be a little leverage the Sox have. Make the QO, then negotiate with Boras, hoping the draft pick compensation drives down the price. If that succeeds, then the Sox get to keep Ellsbury at a (probably slightly) reduced rate. If he accepts the QO, great, you get Ellsbury for one year and revisit this. If he gets signed elsewhere, the Sox get a very valuable draft pick. Seems like the no-brainer move to make the QO.

Just for fun, who are these 10 players? For what it's worth, Ellsbury is #7 in the AL in runs created. Ortiz is ahead of him, but we know Ortiz isn't gonna get a ton of votes for MVP.

Well then no trade for an ace really will ever happen. No team has an incentive to trade away an ace. If it's an old ace like Cliff Lee, we'd scream bloody murder if the Sox emptied the farm for him. If it's a young ace, you're saying that no team would trade one of those away. Thus.....trading for an ace pitcher isn't going to happen, unless it's just for a rental. But, as is the premise of this discussion, the Sox are willing to move JBJ for starting pitching, then it HAS to be for an ace. They have a ton of *good* starters...dealing JBJ away for another *good* starter is pointless. You only deal him away for an ace. So from what you're saying here.....well, it ain't gonna happen at all. And if it ain't gonna happen, then there's no reason to trade JBJ. And if you're going to keep JBJ, then either you decide to have both him and Ellsbury, or you have to say goodbye to Jacoby.

I agree that SF isn't exactly interested in moving Bumgarner. But my premise is that JBJ is an elite prospect (not a generational prospect, but an elite one nonetheless), Dempster is a solid NL starter, and two of Boston's pitching prospects - Barnes, Ranaudo, Webster, DLR - well, that makes for a pretty enticing package. SF could easily walk away from that deal a much better team.

Then you forget Felix and still go after Bumgarner. Maybe you need to add in a Webster as well. But the Sox *do* have the pieces to make that kind of a deal.

The Sox are in a very interesting spot. They are in very good shape money-wise. They are already one of the best teams in baseball. They are loaded with starting pitching. They have a TON of quality players either ready for the majors or on the cusp, coming out of their farm system. They have the resources (both money and prospects) to go get pretty much whatever they need.

I wonder what JBJ would fetch in terms of a starting pitcher. Remember, here's what the Sox will have for next year: Lester (assuming they pick up his option) Buchholz Peavy Lackey Doubront Dempster - - - - - Webster DeLaRosa Workman Ranaudo Barnes So there's already somewhat of a logjam at SP. You'd likely have to get rid of two of the top six guys, and then add this mystery pitcher. Here are the potential free agent starting pitchers (* indicates an option): Starting Pitchers Bronson Arroyo Scott Baker Erik Bedard Nick Blackburn * A.J. Burnett Chris Capuano * Chris Carpenter Bruce Chen Bartolo Colon Aaron Cook Jorge De La Rosa Scott Feldman Gavin Floyd Jeff Francis Armando Galarraga Jon Garland Matt Garza Roy Halladay * Jason Hammel Aaron Harang * Rich Harden Dan Haren Roberto Hernandez Tim Hudson Phil Hughes Ubaldo Jimenez * Josh Johnson Jeff Karstens Hiroki Kuroda John Lannan Jon Lester * Colby Lewis Ted Lilly Tim Lincecum Derek Lowe Paul Maholm Shaun Marcum Jason Marquis Daisuke Matsuzaka Brett Myers * Ricky Nolasco Mike Pelfrey Andy Pettitte Wandy Rodriguez * Jonathan Sanchez Ervin Santana Johan Santana * Joe Saunders * James Shields * Tim Stauffer Jason Vargas Ryan Vogelsong * Edinson Volquez Tsuyoshi Wada * Chien-Ming Wang Chris Young Barry Zito Not exactly an inspiring list, IMO. Garza would be fine, but he's probably wicked expensive. So maybe you're on to something. Maybe the best way to spend the resources is with a trade that looks something like this: The Sox deal JBJ, Dempster, and Ranaudo to San Francisco, and get back Madison Bumgarner. They are losing Pence after this season, and JBJ would be a great fit for them. Dempster fills the pitching hole, at least temporarily. Ranaudo steps in for them when Dempster's contract is up after the 2014 season. For the Sox, they get a premier lefty starting pitcher at really good money (under contract through 2019 if the Sox use the options in 2018 and 2019, for just $55.75 million - an average of just over $9 mil per season). The rotation would be Bumgarner, Buchholz, Lester, Peavy, Lackey, and Doubront. Then they sign Ellsbury to a 5-year deal at about $20 mil per season. So they get a top-flight SP and a top-flight CF for a total of about $29 million per season. That's pretty reasonable, IMO.

I think Lavarnway's bat could be good enough as a RH platoon. It would have the added benefit of having an emergency 3rd catcher on the roster as well.

Bogaerts needs to be up here. It's time. Yes, there will be some growing pains for him. But consider this: Of the 30 MLB teams, the Red Sox rank #23 in OPS with a .651 mark. I'm pretty sure Bogaerts will be able, even during the growing pains period, to outproduce that.

Won't matter. Jacoby is going to go the free agent route.

Scott Boras is happy.

Victorino has been just fine. No complaints from me about his performance this year.

I wasn't sure if this belonged in this thread or if I should start a new one (I didn't want to hijack this one, but it IS about Napoli so....). Anyway, I want to talk about 1b moving forward. I am so glad that the Sox are not on the hook for 2 more seasons with Napoli, based on what we've seen this year. Certainly amazing raw power and when he connects, see-ya. But so much impotence at the plate far too often. I think 1b is a real issue moving forward. Obviously this year you just keep it as-is and ride it out, but for 2014, what are some 1b options? Could the Sox have Gomes/Nava platoon in left and then find a RH-hitting platoon partner with Carp and have them fill the role at 1b? Maybe Lavarnway, since it doesn't seem like the Sox are super comfortable with him behind the plate? That sure would be an inexpensive way to probably get about 20-25 homers out of the 1b spot, which would free up considerable cash to upgrade elsewhere. Thoughts on how to deal with 1b moving forward?

Doubront's first two months were a disaster? They weren't great, but I wouldn't consider them to be a disaster. He had one horrible relief outing (which is not what he normally does, so that's understandable). But he had 8 starts over those two months, and in only one of them did he give up more than 3 er. He averaged 5.2 ip in those starts. Outside of that one horrible start (3.1 ip, 12 h, 6 er, 1 bb, 2 k), here was his stat line: 40.3 ip, 33 h, 17 er, 23 bb, 47 k, 3.79 era, 1.39 whip, 10.5 k/9 So besides one horrific start, he kept his team in every single game, and the Sox won 6 of his 8 starts. That's a pretty solid #5 starter - that isn't a "disaster". What was a disaster was what the Sox threw out there at the end of 2011 and for much of 2012.

Yep, I agree. This is the first time in a while where I feel pretty comfortable with all five spots in the rotation. I would love to see Buchholz back and Lester return to being the consistently terrific starter he once was, and if that happens, this five-man group (Buchholz, Peavy, Lester, Lackey, Doubront) will be the best in the sport. Of course, I don't know if we'll ever get to that point, but I suppose it's possible.

It's tough to tell which season was Lester's best. Here are the three candidates: 2008 - 210.1 ip, 16-6, 3.21 era, 144 era+, 1.27 whip, 6.5 k/9, 6.1 bWAR 2009 - 203.1 ip, 15-8, 3.41 era, 136 era+, 1.23 whip, 10.0 k/9, 6.3 bWAR 2010 - 208.0 ip, 19-9, 3.25 era, 134 era+, 1.20 whip, 9.7 k/9, 5.2 bWAR Here's Shields' likely best season: 2011 - 249.1 ip, 16-12, 2.82 era, 134 era+, 1.04 whip, 8.1 k/9, 11 CG, 5.2 bWAR I don't really know how b-ref calculates WAR, because it would seem to me that a lot more innings pitched with a lower whip and a lower era would make a guy more valuable. Here are their fangraphs WARs: Lester 2008 - 5.0 2009 - 6.2 2010 - 5.4 Shields 2011 - 4.5 So both baseball-reference and fangraphs rate Lester's best seasons as more valuable than Shields'...which again is a mystery to me given that Shields outperformed Lester over more innings pitched. So I can't figure it out. Anyway, my own personal rankings, I'd say that Shields' 2011 season was better than Lester's best season, but both b-ref and fangraphs disagree.

Nobody is really comparing him to Kershaw now either. Kershaw is the best pitcher in the sport. Doubront's been on an amazing run, but it still can't come close to Kershaw's brilliance. By the way, the Dodgers are going to be spending money like an insane drunken sailor. Their payroll is already off the charts, and they've been looking to lock Kershaw up long-term, a deal that will likely be a 7-year, $180 million figure ($25.7 m per year). PLUS, I just heard a report from a Mets beat reporter that the Dodgers will be all-in on Cano, who will cost a fortune. Their payroll could hit $270 million next season. Holy smokes.

Well, even at his best run Doubront can't touch Kershaw. But the point is that all these guys are bona fide #1 pitchers, and a bunch of them are aces by any definition of the term. And since May 16, Doubront has been every bit as good as most of them. I don't think any of us, in our wildest dreams, thought he'd get to this level. I was as optimistic about him as anyone here, but even I can't believe how well he's pitched this season, right from the beginning too. I mean, he's had just one start where he's given up more than 3 earned runs. That's amazing.