Orange Juiced

If Middlebrooks, during his age 25 season, puts up an .800 ops with 25 homers and 80 rbi, while playing above-average defense at 3b, at the cost of a minimum MLB salary, we should all say a prayer of thanks. And don't get me wrong - I think he's totally capable of that, which is why he's potentially incredibly valuable to this team.

The thing about WMB, as compared to Iglesias, is that even when he was going bad, WMB could run into a pitch and drive it out. Even before he was sent down, even though he wasn't getting on base at all, he still had 9 homers. Now that he's getting on base, he's being incredibly productive. Of course I expect him to slow down, but he's still a huge offensive lift from Iglesias.

Ok. I don't see them wipe their hands off. I just see on TV them licking their fingers and then step on the rubber and away they go. But obviously the camera only focuses on them from the chest up. Thanks for the answer. Simple enough.

Quick question. My dad (70+ years of age, and clearly remembers the good old days) asked this. He noticed that pitchers often lick their fingers (while on the mound no less, though not on the rubber) and then take the ball to pitch. He asked why this is legal. The spitball (applying saliva to the ball) has been outlawed for a long time, but spitballs never were about actually "spitting" on the ball, but rather applying saliva or some other substance to the ball. Why can a pitcher lick his fingers (or do what Buchholz does..apply a combination of sweat and rosin) before pitching the ball if a spitball is illegal?

Three outs but two were well driven balls. Good to hit three fly balls off a ground ball pitcher.

Nova not missing any bats in that inning. A good sign for later?

And WMB's numbers are really night-and-day since his recall: Apr 1 - Jun 20: .192/.228/.389/.617 Aug 10 - Sep 4: .343/.413/.529/.941 So he's been a totally different player since he came back to Boston. I don't expect a .941 ops from him the rest of the way, but he's looking much more like an .800 ops guy than a .700 ops guy.

I'm glad Dempster won't pitch against the Yankees this weekend.

Hey I just got here. Did I miss anything?

Ok. I was just going by bWAR. But my larger point is that there's a point where the reliever is more valuable. Where that exact point is is, I suppose, a bit nebulous. Its why its an interesting exercise.

Ok then compare Rivera with Doubront. Rivera: 51.0 ip (on pace for about 60.0 ip), 2.12 era, 1.8 bWAR Doubront: 150.1 ip (on pace for about 176.1 ip), 3.89 era, 107 era+, 1.9 bWAR Same basic principle. And Doubront has clearly been better than average.

I know. Do you have a point?

I think the interesting discussion (getting back to the topic....ahem) is about the relative value between a good starter or a GREAT reliever. Starter: 180 ip, 4.00 era Reliever: 60 ip, 2.00 era (just to keep the numbers simple) The Yankees have two guys that pretty much hit these numbers: Pettitte: 150.1 ip (on pace for about 176.1 ip), 4.01 era, 1.2 bWAR Rivera: 51.0 ip (on pace for about 60.0 ip), 2.12 era, 1.8 bWAR So by these numbers, a great reliever is worth a little more than half a game more than a good starter. Obviously, it's a sliding scale. If Pettitte was a little better and Rivera a little worse, Pettitte becomes more valuable. Etc. *Note: The average era for an AL starter this year at this point is 4.18, so Pettitte is outperforming the average AL starter by 0.17.

Yep. That's why every day that goes by with the standings remaining the same is a good day for the Sox.

Lester last 6 starts: 42.0 ip, 1.71 era, 1.09 whip, 6.2 k/9, .567 ops Last night, his fastball velocity sat between 93-96, and he had great movement. Dude is dominating lately. Good to see.

Another day, no change in the AL East race. That's a good thing.

And just so people understand, here are the Sox' top 3 relievers: Uehara: 61.1 ip, 1.17 era, 357 era+, 0.62 whip, 12.2 k/9 Tazawa: 60.2 ip, 2.67 era, 157 era+, 1.15 whip, 9.5 k/9 Breslow: 48.2 ip, 2.22 era, 189 era+, 1.17 whip, 4.8 k/9 It may not feel like a great 1-2-3 because I don't know how much confidence people have in Tazawa or Breslow, but it's as good a 1-2-3 bullpen punch as there is. Here are some others: Tampa Rodney: 55.2 ip, 3.72 era, 103 era+, 1.42 whip, 11.6 k/9 Torres: 48.0 ip, 1.31 era, 292 era+, 0.83 whip, 10.1 k/9 Peralta: 58.0 ip, 2.95 era, 130 era+, 1.09 whip, 9.3 k/9 Detroit Benoit: 55.0 ip, 2.13 era, 199 era+, 1.09 whip, 9.8 k/9 Smyly: 69.0 ip, 2.22 era, 190 era+, 1.01 whip, 9.3 k/9 Rondon: 27.2 ip, 3.58 era, 119 era+, 1.41 whip, 8.8 k/9 Texas Nathan: 53.2 ip, 1.51 era, 275 era+, 0.93 whip, 9.9 k/9 Scheppers: 60.2 ip, 2.08 era, 200 era+, 1.15 whip, 6.7 k/9 Cotts: 45.0 ip, 1.20 era, 346 era+, 1.00 whip, 10.6 k/9 Oakland Balfour: 54.2 ip, 2.47 era, 152 era+, 1.17 whip, 10.0 k/9 Cook: 60.0 ip, 2.10 era, 178 era+, 1.13 whip, 8.7 k/9 Doolittle: 58.0 ip, 3.57 era, 105 era+, 1.03 whip, 7.6 k/9 I'd say that the Sox' top 3 stack up pretty well with these other contenders' top 3. Texas' might be better than Boston's, but I think Boston's is better than anyone else's amongst this group.

Fortunately in the playoffs, the Sox should be able to get away with just 3 quality relievers in the bullpen: Uehara, Tazawa, and Breslow. Use Thornton and Workman in games where they're losing, but the other three in games where they're tied or winning. That's how Torre would handle the Yankees bullpen: Nelson, Stanton, and Rivera - he rode those guys all the time in the playoffs and it worked.

This season has been the anti-2010 for John Lackey. 2010: 4.40 era, 99 era+, 1.42 whip, 6.5 k/9, but got 14 wins (14-11 record) 2013: 3.19 era, 131 era+, 1.17 whip, 7.8 k/9, but only has 8 wins (8-11 record) *Note, these numbers are not including today's game, where he went 7.1 ip, giving up just 8 baserunners and 3 er, which just ended in a loss for him, making him 8-12.

Sox are now 5.5 games up on Tampa. Bos: 82-56 (24 games left) TB: 75-60 -5.5 (27 games left) If the Sox go just 12-12, Tampa has to go 19-8 just to tie. If the Sox go just 8-16, Tampa has to go 15-12 just to tie. But if the Sox go 15-9, Tampa has to go an astonishing 22-5 just to tie.

What is with this intense concern over new threads here? Why do people care that new threads get started? If it's a bad thread, it'll quickly die a deserved death.

Middlebrooks would lose a lot of his value playing at 1b. At 3b, he's a plus defender, and that gets lost at 1b. I think they go very hard after Abreu, who is a potential 40 hr stick at 1b. That would fill a lot of the offensive hole they'd be losing. Maybe year 1 he's a 20-25 hr guy, which still isn't bad.

I actually recommend the Sox try to get Ellsbury to sign for 3/75. Yes, it's a crazy amount per year, but I think he'll be excellent the next three years and then they can let him go as JBJ enters his prime. They can afford this kind of short-term contract.

In my scenario I paint in the where to spend the money thread, I tried to make the case that the Sox could afford to keep Ellsbury at 6/120, get Abreu, and sign McCann. It would leave 300-400 at-bats for JBJ as the platoon guy in LF and the primary backup OF in center and right. That's a lot of at-bats for a rookie.

I agree wholeheartedly. I was encourage that they were as in on Gonzalez as they were; it gives me hope for Abreu. But in my plan they can afford McCann, Abreu, AND Ellsbury. It doesn't have to be an either/or scenario for any of them. PS - I forgot to mention Owens in my list of SP that might be on the cusp of contributing at the major league level.