Orange Juiced

I think we all hope he'll be ready to go long before the 4th of December.

Lester sure has been that guy. Lester's career postseason #s: 8 g, 2.57 era, 1.12 whip, 8.4 k/9, and he won the World Series clinching game 4 in 2007 against Colorado, throwing 5.2 innings of 3-hit, shutout baseball. I like Peavy, but he's never won a World Series, and he's never even had a decent playoff performance. He's pitched in two postseason games: 10/4/05, vs. StL: 4.1 ip, 8 h, 8 r, 8 er, 3 bb, 3 k 10/3/06, vs. StL: 5.1 ip, 11 h, 5 r, 5 er, 1 bb, 2 k TOTALS: 9.2 ip, 19 h, 13 r, 13 er, 4 bb, 5 k, 12.10 era, 2.38 whip, 4.7 k/9 So in a big playoff game, based on their respective histories, who would you rather have on the mound: Lester or Peavy? Based on these numbers, it isn't even close....Lester in a heartbeat.

Back to the idea of scoring, it goes to show you how times have changed. Look at these two ops+ numbers put up by David Ortiz: 2006: 161 2013: 160 Virtually identical, right? Well, here are the rest of the numbers associated with those ops+ numbers: 2006: 54 hr, 137 rbi, 10.3 ab/hr, .287/.413/.636/1.049 2013: 24 hr, 78 rbi, 17.0 ab/hr, .318/.399/.572/.971 So, same person, same position, same team (thus same park effects). The only difference is the era in which these numbers were produced. So a 1.049 ops in 2006 is equivalent to a .971 ops in 2013. Wow, that's a HUGE difference.

Who are you talking about? The stats to which you replied were Sabathia's. But on July 22 the Sox played the Rays.

Ok. That was not apparent to me because you responded to the point about him twice pitching on 3-days' rest in the 2009 playoffs. But yes, he's pitched a TON of innings over his career and it just might be catching up with him. I'm not upset that the Yankees are on the hook for him through 2017 (if his option for 2017 vests), for a total of $96 million ($24 million per season). If they're gonna pay $24 million a year for a 200 ip, 4.50 era guy for the next four seasons, I'm perfectly ok with that. :-)

Heh. For a last-man-in-the-bullpen, Mortensen actually did a pretty good job for the Sox during his tenure here: 50 g, 4.11 era, 104 era+, 1.37 whip, 7.7 k/9 A lot of teams have relievers that don't put up those kinds of numbers. I don't think he has a place on this team at this point so I'm not exactly grieving his departure, but he was a pretty useful guy to have around while he was here. No complaints from me.

Can we really say that with any knowledge, though? I mean, here were his next 3 seasons after pitching one 3 days' rest twice in the playoffs in 2009: 2009: 19-8, 3.37 era, 137 era+, 1.15 whip, 7.7 k/9 (for reference's sake) 2010: 21-7, 3.18 era, 136 era+, 1.19 whip, 7.5 k/9 2011: 18-8, 3.00 era, 143 era+, 1.23 whip, 8.7 k/9 2012: 15-6, 3.38 era, 124 era+, 1.14 whip, 8.9 k/9 So for the next 3 seasons following those two games on 3-days' rest, he was just as good as he was in 2009 (better, really). It's just this year that he's really dropped off. I would just attribute it to age and wear-and-tear more than those two games.

Tazawa is very interesting. His raw numbers are very solid: 2.75 era, 1.15 whip, 7.0 k/9. He's pitched in 59 games (59 innings pitched as well), and in those 59 games, he's allowed the other team to score 17 times (28.8% of the time). In other words, pretty much once out of every four games he allows a run. But only *twice* has he allowed more than one run: April 30 (vs. Tor), 2 runs; and then June 29 (vs. Tor), 2 runs. So he never "blows up". Notice the opponent in those two games: Toronto. They seem to be his kryptonite. Here are his numbers: - vs. Toronto: 7.2 ip, 11 h, 7 r, 7 er, 3 bb, 7 k, 5 hr, 8.22 era, 1.83 whip, 8.2 k/9, 1.53 ip/hr - vs. Everyone Else: 51.1 ip, 48 h, 12 r, 11 er, 6 bb, 56 k, 3 hr, 1.93 era, 1.05 whip, 9.8 k/9, 17.11 ip/hr I mean, he's nails against everyone but Toronto, apparently. The good news for him is that in the playoffs, he won't be facing the Jays. :-)

I think the Yankees did it with Sabathia too. Yep, in the ALCS he pitched games 1 and 4, and then again in the World Series he pitched in games 1 and 4. In both cases each series went 6 games, but Sabathia undoubtedly would have gone in game 7 if necessary.

Agreed. But he isn't superhuman. On May 15, the Sox beat up on Price, winning 9-2 behind 7 strong innings from Lester. Now, it may have been that Price wasn't 100% healthy, because that was his last start before going on the DL, but still. He can be beat. He has six starts (out of 20 total) where he's given up 4 or more earned runs. I could see Lester or Peavy or Lackey holding the Rays to 1 or 2 runs and the Sox winning a 3-2 game against Price.

In a seven game series, most teams don't throw the same pitcher out in games 1, 4, and 7. Most teams - even those with a dominant ace - tend to use 4 starters these days. For example, in 2011, the Tigers and Rangers faced each other in the ALCS. In game 1, Verlander (the undisputed ace of that staff, CYA and MVP winner) lost a narrow game 3-2. The Rangers took game 2 and the Tigers took game 3. So what to do in game 4, down 2 games to 1? Instead of throwing Verlander (who had thrown just 82 pitches in game 1), they opted for Rick Porcello, who had a 4.75 era and 1.41 whip that year. They lost 7-3 in 11 innings. They then pitched Verlander in game 5 and Detroit won, but wound up losing game 6. Why wouldn't Detroit use Verlander in game 4, when they were down 2-1, which also might have enabled him to pitch in game 7 as well (should it get that far)? No idea. It was a perfect situation to use your ace in games 1, 4, and 7, especially when the alternative was a guy with a 4.75 era. Not saying that teams just don't do it anymore ever, but I wouldn't really worry about it in a 7 game series, to be honest.

Good point. And I don't now which setup is more conducive to postseason success. Cabrera is less prone to be shut down by excellent starting pitching than, say, Napoli, but pitchers are also more likely to pitch around or flat-out walk Cabrera, which means that Napoli will get a chance to do damage. I suppose both set ups have worked in the past, and both have failed in the past.

Hey, if they can "tread water" through the end of the season and end up winning the division by one game, I'm cool with that.

I think the math for scoring runs is actually a little different. It's not the number of base runners, it's the number of *bases*. In order to score a run, you need four bases. Those can be taken numerous ways: four walks, one home run, a double, a steal, and a sac fly, a single and a double, etc. So what you need are bases, however you can get them. So Detroit and Boston have virtually identical runs scored this year: Det 662, Bos 661. But how they've gotten there is very different. Look at their two baseball-reference pages: Boston: http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/BOS/2013.shtml Detroit: http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/DET/2013.shtml Boston has 12 guys with 150+ plate appearances. Only one has an ops+ of less than 100 (Middlebrooks at 84). Only one has an ops+ of greater than 150 (Ortiz at 160). Only two have an ops+ of greater than 125 (Ortiz and Carp at 143). Detroit has 13 guys with 150+ plate appearances. Five have an ops+ of less than 100 (Avila - 70; Dirks - 86; Pena - 99; Kelly - 90; and Santiago - 63). Only one has an ops+ of greater than 150 (Cabrera at 202). Only two have an ops+ of greater than 125 (Cabrera and Tuiasosopo at 139). So looking at these numbers, you see that the Sox have a far more balanced attack, but the Tigers seem to be more reliant upon one incredible player having a typically incredible year. But let's see this a little further. Looking at their b-ref pages (click "more stats" to get these numbers), I wanted to see the total bases each team has taken. That includes their TB number from hitting, plus stolen bases and bases taken on passed balls, wild pitches, walks, groundouts, and fly outs. Here are their respective numbers: Boston - Tot Bases (hitting): 2008 - Stolen Bases: 99 - Bases Taken: 139 - TOTAL BASES: 2246 (17.02 per game) Detroit - Tot Bases (hitting): 2036 - Stolen Bases: 30 - Bases Taken: 134 - TOTAL BASES: 2200 (16.92 per game) So they have produced a very similar number of bases, and a very similar number of runs, but they've gone about it in two very different ways. The Red Sox have more consistency up and down the lineup and roster, and they do a better job taking bases on the basepaths. Detroit has a shallower lineup, but they have more thump (152 hr vs. just 135 for Boston) and one all-time great hitter at the peak of his powers doing massive damage. EDIT: Just for fun, I wanted to see how many TOTAL BASES each team averaged per run scored. Bos: 3.39 Det: 3.32 And then I wanted to compare that to the worst scoring team in the majors, Miami: Boston - 661 runs - 2246 TB - 3.39 TB/R Detroit - 662 runs - 2200 TB - 3.32 TB/R Miami - 415 runs - 1576 TB - 3.80 TB/R In other words, Miami has to take a lot more bases in order to score a run than either Detroit or Boston, but Detroit is a little more efficient than Boston is.

So to take that to its logical conclusion, you want your best hitters getting the most opportunities. So based on ops+, here's what the Sox' best lineup would be: DH Ortiz - 160 LF Carp - 143 C Saltalamacchia - 115 2b Pedroia - 115 (obviously you could have Pedroia at 3 and Salty at 4) 1b Napoli - 113 CF Ellsbury - 108 RF Victorino - 106 SS Drew - 103 3b Middlebrooks - 84 If you don't like this lineup, how would you change it, and why?

Yeah, keep in mind that Dempster has extensive experience coming out of the bullpen - he used to be a closer. So I think he'd adapt to that role (not the closer's role...a bullpen role) pretty easily. And he could be a valuable guy in the bullpen. Like you said, he probably could throw 92-93 instead of 90-91, he does come after people, he has a bulldog mentality, and he could also give you a lot of innings in case the starter craps the bed or gets hurt.

I'll be perfectly happy if WMB ends up being a guy who gets about 35 walks a season, hits about .285 with about 30 hr, and drives in 85+ runs a year, all while playing above-average defense. That's a very, very valuable guy, and I think those numbers are entirely possible with him. One of the keys is, as you pointed out, spoiling those tough pitches instead of swinging at and missing them.

Just for comparison's sake..... Boston Buchholz: 1.71 era, 245 era+, 1.02 whip, 8.6 k/9 Lackey: 3.17 era, 132 era+, 1.18 whip, 7.9 k/9 Lester: 3.97 era, 105 era+, 1.31 whip, 7.4 k/9 Peavy: 3.99 era, 108 era+, 1.09 whip, 7.7 k/9 Doubront: 3.79 era, 110 era+, 1.40 whip, 7.8 k/9 - - - - - Dempster: 4.77 era, 88 era+, 1.47 whip, 8.2 k/9 Tampa Bay Price: 3.28 era, 117 era+, 1.09 whip, 7.3 k/9 Moore: 3.41 era, 112 era+, 1.23 whip, 8.5 k/9 Cobb: 2.87 era, 133 era+, 1.19 whip, 8.3 k/9 Archer: 2.93 era, 131 era+, 1.09 whip, 6.2 k/9 Hellickson: 5.01 era, 76 era+, 1.32 whip, 6.9 k/9 - - - - - Hernandez: 4.97 era, 77 era+, 1.32 whip, 6.5 k/9 I put the last guy under a dashed line because they would be the odd man out if all the teams' top 5 pitchers were healthy. In all honesty, those rotations are a lot closer than I thought they would be.

No doubt. Fortunately, the season doesn't end today and there's time for Clay to return healthy and strong. It'll be an interesting decision for Farrell (one that he will no doubt want to have to make) if Clay, Lester, Peavy, Doubront, and Lackey are all pitching well - which 4 make up the postseason rotation.

Yeah at one point during a WMB at-bat last night I wondered why any RHP would throw him anything other than sliders low and away.

The Sox really don't have any player having a crazy great offensive season. Ortiz has been excellent, and Jacoby has also been really good, but Pedroia hasn't gone crazy, and nobody else is really lighting it up. So how are the Sox #2 in baseball in runs scored? Lineup depth. Look at the ops+ numbers for their main guys: C - Saltalamacchia: 115 1b - Napoli: 113 2b - Pedroia: 115 SS - Drew: 103 3b - Middlebrooks: 84 (but rising fast; 1.000 ops since his recall) LF - Gomes: 108 CF - Ellsbury: 108 RF - Victorino: 106 DH - Ortiz: 160 OF - Nava: 121 OF/1b - Carp: 143 I mean, up and down the lineup they have guys who are making pitchers work, doing a good job getting on base, and hitting a TON of doubles. They're also very successful stealing bases: Pedroia: 16-21 Ellsbury: 47-51 Victorino: 17-20 (TOT for the 3 guys): 80-92 (87.0%) So those stolen bases turn walks and singles into doubles. Look at last night's second run. Ellsbury beats out an IF hit. Steals 2b. Victorino bunts him to 3rd. Pedroia hits a SF. Putting a lineup like that where *everybody* is an average or above-average offensive player, even if there are few stars having crazy years, will wear down opposing pitchers and allow you, over time, to put up a lot of runs. Clearly it's a formula that's working. (sorry this is a new thread for those that don't like new threads; I couldn't find a thread that matched this theme)

Middlebrooks since his recall + Bogaerts = a very nice offensive upgrade on the left side of the infield. The numbers: Middlebrooks (since his return): 45 ab, 16 h, 3 2b, 2 hr, 7 rbi, .356/.444/.556/1.000 Bogaerts: 9 ab, 3 h, 1 2b, 1 rbi, .333/.333/.444/.778 TOTAL: 54 ab, 19 h, 4 2b, 2 hr, 8 rbi, .352/.426/.537/.963 That's a lot better than what the Sox were getting from the left side before August.

Agreed. What the Red Sox have now is a rotation of 5 solid pitchers. No great ones, but 5 solid ones. And a rotation like that can be incredibly valuable. Each guy gives you a pretty good chance to win every night, even if you don't have a dominant ace. It means that you're not likely to have a long losing streak (and still, the team hasn't had a losing streak of more than 3 games all year). Remember what guys they were throwing out there in September of 2011....holy smokes that was awful.

He continues to pitch well. A hiccup against the Yankees, but still looking strong: 3.79 era, 7.8 k/9, doesn't miss starts. He's having a fine season for the Sox.

Jake Peavy since arriving in Boston: 7.0 ip, 4 h, 2 r, 2 er, 2 bb, 7 k 5.0 ip, 10 h, 6 r, 6 er, 1 bb, 0 k 6.0 ip, 5 h, 2 r, 2 er, 0 bb, 4 k 5.2 ip, 5 h, 1 r, 1 er, 1 bb, 4 k 9.0 ip, 3 h, 1 r, 1 er, 1 bb, 5 k TOT: 32.2 ip, 27 h, 12 r, 12 er, 5 bb, 20 k, 3.31 era, 0.98 whip, 5.5 k/9 Pretty solid addition to the staff so far.