Orange Juiced

Stolen bases are pretty important. Jacoby doesn't score last night without the stolen base. I agree a single + sb is not the same as hitting a double. Just like a single is not the same thing as a walk. In terms of total bases accumulated it is, but not in terms of what it might be able to drive in. I know that, obviously. But sometimes we think about stolen bases and taking extra bases on groundouts or flyouts or singles to right as just these extra things that really aren't that important. Players and teams that consistently do those things well will have a huge advantage over teams that don't. I'm just trying to make the case that Ellsbury's offensive contribution is much greater than his batting stats would indicate.

Ok, so I just ran the numbers based on b-ref's figures. Here's the formula for TOTAL BASES: Batting total bases + stolen bases + bases taken (advancing on a fly ball, etc.) - caught stealing - out on the bases (out trying to take an extra base, etc.) Here are the TOTAL BASE figures for these 13 guys: 1. Jones - 294 2. Ellsbury - 284 3. McCutchen - 266 4. Gomez - 253 5. Choo - 236 6. Gardner - 220 7. Span - 207 8. Jennings - 204 9. Rasmus - 194 10. Jackson - 193 11. Jay - 186 12. Fowler - 181 13. Bourn - 173 So this is a different way of looking at it other than my silly adjusted ops. And it STILL shows Ellsbury as much higher up the rankings as a traditional stat might show. So don't miss the forest for the trees here. Whatever flawed method I use, the fact remains that his offensive contribution is much greater than numbers like OBP and OPS might suggest, because he is so dynamic on the base paths.

Of course it's not the exact same. It's just one attempt to show how much of an impact stolen bases can have, and that Ellsbury's huge number of SB's, and corresponding success rate, are a major part of his value that traditional ops numbers don't account for. I could just look at TOTAL BASES if you want me to - as I kind of outline in this post here: http://www.talksox.com/forum/threads/16620-How-to-score-a-lot-of-runs?p=868454&viewfull=1#post868454. You'd still see Ellsbury's offensive value go up considerably in comparison to these other CFs.

Currently, Ellsbury ranks #7 among all qualified CF in baseball with a .777 ops. He ranks 4th with a .356 obp. He ranks #1 (far and away) with 49 sb and a +45 sb/cs number. Now, 700 made a good point about Ellsbury stealing so many bases, which is like getting doubles. So I took all the qualified CF in the majors (there are 13 of them), and I looked at their numbers and redid them. I took the sb/cs number (so you get penalized for your cs) and then turned that number of singles into doubles. So for Ellsbury, the numbers look like this: Original: 534 ab, 159 h, 29 2b, 8 3b, 7 hr, 44 bb, +45 sb, .298/.356/.421/.777 Revamped: 534 ab, 159 h, 74 2b, 8 3b, 7 hr, 44 bb, .298/.356/.506/.862 So you can see that, wow, Ellsbury's ops suddenly looks MUCH better. Here's the list of all the 13 qualified CF. I won't give you all the stats...just their original ops and adjusted ops after doing this math: 1. McCutchen - .910 - .947 2. Choo - .863 - .873 3. Gomez - .848 - .906 4. Jones - .826 - .846 5. Rasmus - .817 - .815 6. Fowler - .780 - .800 7. Ellsbury - .777 - .862 8. Jackson - .753 - .758 9. Gardner - .753 - .782 10. Jay - .727 - .735 11. Jennings - .720 - .742 12. Span - .698 - .708 13. Bourn - .672 - .691 So based on these adjusted numbers, Ellsbury would be 4th among all qualified MLB CF in ops. Yes, the impact of his stolen bases (and stolen base success rate) is very significant.

A slower player might have been thrown out at first by Hardy. It would have been a nice play, but if that was Napoli, Hardy would have gunned him out.

McCann would be a terrific DH. He doesn't play as much at C as he would at DH. If you project his career numbers (which have been remarkably consistent, btw, so it seems reasonable to do this) over, say, 154 games instead of just the 135 he typically plays, his average numbers come to: .279/.351/.476/.827, 118 ops+, 65 r, 25 hr, 92 rbi I'd happily take those numbers from a DH for a couple of seasons, and he could also provide you with bonus depth at C. Your idea of extending Lester is fine for down the road, but there's still a ton of freed up money in 2014. Especially if we go without McCann at $15 m and instead go with Salty at about $10 m, and really if we go without Ellsbury.

Thanks. I think Ellsbury is likely gone, but there really aren't that many places to spend it for next year. I already suggested upgrades at C and 1b, but if you don't sign Ellsbury, there's a TON of money left over....but for what? The list of FA pitchers is not inspiring. There aren't many premier position players that are FA after Ellsbury. Well, there's Cano, but the Sox already have Pedroia. I can't imagine Cano signs here for $30 million to play 3b...though he'd be amazing here, no doubt, and it would have the double effect of stinging the Yankees big-time. So where else would you spend the $$ if not on Ellsbury? Extending Lester/Peavy would go on the 2015 figure, not the 2014 one. I mean, they don't *HAVE* to spend the $$ I guess, but man, the team I suggested in the OP would be incredible.

Here's a leverage index, to your point: http://www.insidethebook.com/li.shtml To keep things consistent, let's compare top 8 vs. top 9, nobody on base, no outs, under the same conditions: Even score Top 8: 1.9 Top 9: 2.4 Up 1 run Top 8: 2.2 Top 9: 2.9

Now, this sets you up in 2015 as follows. Lester and Peavy would be free agents, so two big holes would need to be filled in the rotation. But fortunately, Lackey's salary in 2015 drops down to just 500 k (!), and Doubront is arbitration eligible for 2015, so he'd likely get a significant bump up to, say, $6 million. And Buchholz' salary jumps to $12 million. So you're losing Lester's $13 million and Peavy's $14.5 million, and Lackey drops from $15.25 million down to $0.5 million. So the net reductions come to $42.25 million, while the net increases come to around $11 million. Thus you need to replace two starting spots and you have about $31 million with which to work. Among the position guys, Ortiz comes off the books, and I just don't know if they'd sign him for much at that point in his career. I'd say adieu after 2014 (he'll be 39 in the 2015 season), so there's a DH spot that would need to be filled. But I'm not too worried about that. And since his 2014 salary would be $11 million, that's an additional $11 million to play with to fill that role. The rest of the spots would be in very good shape, however, so there wouldn't be many holes to fill besides 2 SP spots and a DH. Maybe by then Lavarnway will be the masher we all hope he can be. Anyway, all that can be done without burying the team for the future, giving away prospects, or hamstringing them financially. And it gives the Sox an incredible roster for 2014.

We're having a blast with the Sox this season, but lots of talk about the future, so I figured I would paint the picture for where the Sox are at. Start here: http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/BOS/2013-payroll-salaries.shtml Here are the commitments for the Sox for 2014: Rotation: SP Lackey - 15.25 m SP Peavy - 14.5 m SP Dempster - 13.25 m SP Buchholz - 7.7 m SP Doubront - 0.515 m SP Lester - 0.25 m buyout, option for 13 m Bullpen: RP Thornton - 1 m buyout, 6 m option RP Breslow - 3.8 m RP Bailey - arbitration (4.1 m in 2013) RP Bard - arbitration (1.86 m in 2013) RP Morales - arbitration (1.49 m in 2013) RP Tazawa - arbitration (0.815 m in 2013) RP Miller - arbitration (1.48 m in 2013) RP Villarreal - 0.5 m RP Uehara - arbitration (4.25 m in 2013) RP Workman - 0.5 m RP Hanrahan - free agent Position Players: C Saltalamacchia - free agent C Ross - 3.1 m C Lavarnway - 0.5 m 1b Napoli - free agent 2b Pedroia - 12.5 m 3b Middlebrooks - 0.5 m SS Drew - free agent LF Gomes - 5 m CF Ellsbury - free agent RF Victorino - 13 m IF Bogaerts - 0.5 m IF Holt - 0.5 m OF Nava - 0.505 m OF Kalish - 0.5 m OF Carp - 0.5 m According to b-ref, their commitments - if all the options are exercised, and estimating what people will make through arbitration - is about $149.2 million. It doesn't factor in the guys who are scheduled to be free agents (Hanrahan, Drew, Salty, Napoli, Ellsbury). Now, the luxury tax threshold in 2014 is $189 million. That's the number the Sox have as their "cap". Obviously, as businessmen, Henry/Werner would like to stay as low as possible, but we know they're going to spend the money. Let's say that $185 million is their hard cap. That means that they have about $39.8 million available to spend, which would take them from $149.2 million up to $185 million. Where should they spend the money? Here is that list again, but with additions and subtractions as I would recommend. Rotation: SP Lackey - 15.25 m SP Peavy - 14.5 m SP Dempster - 13.25 m - Trade him to the NL for a good (not great) prospect. Might have to eat $7 million of this. Net: frees up 6.25 m SP Buchholz - 7.7 m SP Doubront - 0.515 m SP Lester - 0.25 m buyout, option for 13 m - Exercise the option for 13 m. Net: 0, because his option was already assumed to be exercised. Bullpen: RP Thornton - 1 m buyout, 6 m option - Decline the option for 6 m. I like him but think we can do without him. Net: frees up 5 m, because that 6 m was factored into the 149.2 m total. RP Breslow - 3.8 m RP Bailey - arbitration (4.1 m in 2013) - Do not offer arbitration. Net: frees up 4.1 m since that was factored into their 149.2 m total. RP Bard - arbitration (1.86 m in 2013) - Do not offer arbitration. Net: frees up 1.86 m since that was factored into their 149.2 m total. RP Morales - arbitration (1.49 m in 2013) RP Tazawa - arbitration (0.815 m in 2013) RP Miller - arbitration (1.48 m in 2013) RP Villarreal - 0.5 m RP Uehara - arbitration (4.25 m in 2013) RP Workman - 0.5 m RP Hanrahan - free agent - Do not re-sign him. Net: 0. *So far, we've reduced the rotation down to: Buchholz, Lester, Lackey, Peavy, and Doubront. With Webster, Barnes, DeLaRosa, Workman, and Ranaudo waiting in the wings. I think that's a pretty solid group. *So far, we've made the bullpen this: Breslow, Miller, Morales, Tazawa, and Uehara. I think Workman is best suited to a starting role, and probably will be best served to stay in AAA next year as a SP until they need him for late in the year as a reliever. So this means they need to add another relief pitcher. Preferably a RH power arm. I'll come back to this. *And so far, with the players I've traded away, let go as free agents, or declined arbitration, we've saved $17.21 million. Add that to the $39.8 million we had available to start with, and now we have just a tick over $57 million available to do some real work. Position Players: C Saltalamacchia - free agent - I'd try to either re-sign Salty (he's grown on me, to be honest) or McCann. McCann is just a terrific all-around catcher - solid defensively (always has a positive dWAR), and a tremendous hitter. Consistently good, has a career ops+ of 118 (outstanding for a C). Averages about 20-25 hr and 80-85 rbi a season. Would be a great fit in Boston. But also pricey. Currently getting paid $12 million, and I can see his price being around $15 million. He's 29 years old, so he probably still has several very good years left in him. I'd offer him a 4/60 deal and see if that'll get it done. If not, I'd re-sign Salty, and I think it'll likely take about a 4 or 5 year deal, averaging around $8-10 million. His value really has gone up this season. Given that they love Salty, I think that's probably what'll happen. So even though I'd prefer McCann, I think they'll end up with Salty. Let's say, just for fun, I get my way and we get McCann for $15 m in 2014. C Ross - 3.1 m C Lavarnway - 0.5 m 1b Napoli - free agent - Here's where I'd definitely go after the Cuban 1b, Abreu. He's a monster. 26 year old with tremendous power. Will it translate to the majors? Who knows, but I think the odds are pretty good, given the success of recent Cubans in MLB. He's a guy with 35-40 homer power, and he's still young enough to have his best years ahead of him. What will it cost? Well, here are three recent Cubans: Puig (7/42 with a 2014 cost of 3.7); Cespedes (4/36 with a 2014 cost of 10.5); Gonzalez (6/60, unsure of his 2014 cost). So I think Abreu, who may be more MLB-ready than any of these guys, will probably get a 6/72 kind of deal. I'd do that in a heartbeat, b/c $12 million isn't enough to bury you if you're wrong, and if you guess right on him, he'll be an absolute steal as he matures. Heck, they were going to sign Napoli, with a balky hip at age 31, to a 3/39 deal. I'd do Abreu for 6/72, and let's say that's enough to get it done. So add Abreu in for a cost of $12 m in 2014. 2b Pedroia - 12.5 m 3b Middlebrooks - 0.5 m SS Drew - free agent - Say goodbye to Drew. I think he's been solid for the Sox, but I am ready to roll with Bogaerts at SS, and a veteran backup behind him (Holt? who knows). LF Gomes - 5 m CF Ellsbury - free agent - I don't think the Sox will want to pay what he's going to get most likely, but because, up to this point in my figuring, I've spent $27 million out of the $57 million the Sox have available, and I've solved the problem at C and 1b, I think the Sox have enough dough to handle Ellsbury. And I'd offer him first a 3-year deal for $75 million. Go short-term with him but at a much higher AAV than what other teams will likely offer. I think those would be the best 3 years of the rest of his career, and if you're wrong, it's a short-term deal. And that allows JBJ time to mature so that when Ellsbury leaves after the 2016 season, JBJ steps in right at the start of the prime of his career to patrol CF. It's a perfect fit. I wonder if Jacoby would take such an offer. If not (and let's say he says no to that), in this scenario I bite the bullet and sign him to 6/120 (ugh, I hate to do that!!!). That adds $20 million to my 2014 cost, which means that I still have $10 million left over. RF Victorino - 13 m IF Bogaerts - 0.5 m IF Holt - 0.5 m OF Nava - 0.505 m OF Kalish - 0.5 m OF Carp - 0.5 m Now, I need to get back to my last arm in the bullpen. A guy I kick the tires on is Ryan Madson. He has been hurt all season, but before his injury he was a terrific pitcher. If he's healthy, I try to get him. Hard, sinking action on his fastball, over 9 k/9 the past 3 seasons, has experience as a closer. He's making $3.25 million this year and, coming off an injury, I don't think he'd cost more than that for 2014. Jesse Crain (excellent pitcher, making $4.5 million this year) is also a free agent. He'd be pricier, but he's outstanding. I think you can get a veteran power arm in the bullpen for around $5 million or less. And they can always just say, heck with it, we'll keep Workman in the bullpen, or make DeLaRosa a permanent reliever. They still have Beato and Alex Wilson available as well. But let's say they spend $5 million on a veteran power RHP. So when all is said and done, I still have over $5 million to spend, and I have the following roster: SP - Buchholz, Lester, Lackey, Peavy, Doubront RP - Morales, Breslow, Miller, Tazawa, Uehara, Madson/Crain C - McCann 1b - Abreu 2b - Pedroia 3b - Middlebrooks SS - Bogaerts LF - JBJ CF - Ellsbury RF - Victorino DH - Ortiz C - Ross, Lavarnway (minors probably) IF - Holt, Carp (1b/OF) OF - Gomes, Nava Primary Lineup: CF Ellsbury RF Victorino 2b Pedroia DH Ortiz 1b Abreu C McCann 3b Middlebrooks LF Bradley/Gomes SS Bogaerts I mean, that's a HELL of a potential lineup, with a great mix of kids and veterans, speed and power, and lefties and righties. The bench has quality hitters from either side. And the minors still have lots of possibilities waiting in the wings. Meanwhile, the rotation is solid, 1-5. Three righties, two lefties, lots of power arms. And again, a handful of quality kids on the cusp of being MLB contributors. And the bullpen has depth and versatility as well. And all this can be done while keeping the Sox under the luxury tax threshold.

Fair enough. I was just saying that a guy could definitely be reliable enough to set up but not reliable enough to close, because maybe he can't handle the additional pressure. It's kind of weird because you'd think that pitching is pitching, and guys are *always* looking just to get people out, no matter what the situation is. But there's a very real difference between the 7th/8th innings and the 9th inning; some guys can do one thing but not the other.

Actually, an interesting question would be this. It's a little game of chicken for Jacoby/Boras. If he thinks that at age 33, Jacoby will still be in line for one more big contract, then maybe what the Sox could do - since they will have the money to do it - is offer him a 3-year, $75 million deal. $25m per year as an AAV would likely blow any other offer out of the water. But you get (theoretically) the best 3 years of his contract, and then Jacoby, after putting up (hopefully) great numbers those three years, can go out and pursue another deal, and then let's say he gets a 4-year deal after that worth about $64 million - that means he ends up with a 7-year, $140 million deal. The risk is that after those three years maybe he *won't* get another good contract. But at 33, there's still a pretty good bet that he will, I would think. He'd end up with more money this way than he would banking on a big deal now, perhaps. And yes, $25m is more than I think he's worth, but it would probably actually be a pretty nice situation for the Sox. Let JBJ and Gomes share LF, with JBJ picking up games and AB for Jacoby and Victorino when they need time off - you can probably get JBJ about 300-400 AB that way. Gomes does his thing. Nava is the spare outfield part, and Carp is the backup 1b (once they hopefully sign the Cuban 1b Abreu) and 5th OF.

I'm with you. Like I said, I think the true price will be more like 6/120.

To your point, here's where the Sox' combined LF production ranks in the AL this year: - OPS: 3rd (.766, the leader is TB at .768) - R: 2nd (76, the leader is Bal at 81) - 2b: 1st (30) - HR: 8th (15, the leader is Sea at 31) - RBI: 1st (82) - AVG: 6th (.262, the leader is LAA at .277) - OBP: 1st (.344) - SLG: 4th (.421) And they're doing that (basically top-3 overall production from the LF position) for a combined cost (between Nava, Gomes, and Carp) of just a shade over $6 million. That's pretty sweet.

5/75? You couldn't get me to sign that quickly enough. That would be a great contract. I think it'll end up being something closer to 6/120, to be honest. And that is too rich for my blood.

Well, the obvious difference is that if you blow a save in the 7th or 8th, your team still has another at-bat to get it back. But if you blow a save in the bottom of the 9th, the game could be over right then and there. (you could blow a save by letting them tie it, of course)

Speaking of closers, how about Koji freaking Uehara? Here are his numbers since June 30: 23 g, 25.0 ip, 8 h, 1 r, 0 er, 2 bb, 31 k, 0.00 era, 0.40 whip, 11.2 k/9, 15.5 k/bb, batters hitting .098/.119/.122/.241, .157 babip, throwing 75% strikes I mean, those are unfathomably great numbers. He's thrown 309 pitches over that span, which means that he's averaged just over 12 pitches an inning. Dude has been amazing beyond any reasonable expectation we could possibly have had for him.

Rodney, not Uehara, correct?

Given that their rotation is so balanced, it probably depends on: (1) health, (2) matchups, and (3) who is in the best form at the time. Right now, we have no idea who that might be.

The good news about their rotation is that they don't really have to worry about "setting it up" at the end of the year. They can pretty much just roll with whoever is in line to start. All of them are capable of turning in a quality performance.

I offered their postseason numbers as a counter to the claim that Peavy, uniquely on this roster, has this inner monster that he has available to call upon to dominate games. And I suggested that Lester has a better track record in the postseason. Which is true. I'm not sure why what I offered is less meaningful than an odd claim made about Peavy.

It is an interesting question: Would you rather have a dominant #1, followed by three #3's, or would you rather have four #2's? If you can have the first guy go games 1, 4, and 7, you have an automatically large advantage in those games. But you also have a disadvantage in the other four games. Of course, if you know your #1 is going to win those three, then the other team has no margin for error. However, if the other team manages somehow to beat your #1, then you're in big trouble. It's a great basket, but you're still putting all your eggs in it.

jung, you can poo-poo Lester's game 4 start against Colorado all you like, but his overall postseason track record is FAR superior to Peavy's. It isn't even close. And in any one game scenario, Lester is just as likely to put up a gem as Peavy is. EDIT: Lester's worst postseason performance was STILL better than either of Peavy's.

Lester's season can be broken up into three sections: 4/1-5/15: 9 g, 59.2 ip, 2.72 era, 1.01 whip, 7.5 k/9, .246 babip, .576 ops 5/15-7/8: 10 g, 59.2 ip, 6.49 era, 1.73 whip, 7.4 k/9, .359 babip, .900 ops 7/8-8/24: 8 g, 53.0 ip, 2.55 era, 1.19 whip, 7.1 k/9, .280 babip, .654 ops I hope we're not in for another chunk like that 5/15-7/8 section!! Let's hope that this last run continues the rest of the season.

That's what having a good, deep rotation will do for you, even if you don't have a King Felix or Kershaw in the group.