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Bellhorn04

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Everything posted by Bellhorn04

  1. Bellhorn04
    So your point is that he had one successful season where he only spent $170 million?
  2. Bellhorn04
    Which doesn't prove why it happened. Mookie was offered $300 million and turned it down. Then he signed for $307 million (present value because of deferred money.) Those who say he didn't want to stay in Boston may be the ones who are right.
  3. Bellhorn04
    Right, but the 2016 edition of the Cubs was a one-off where everything aligned perfectly. When Theo joined the Cubs he was basically given the green light to tank and rebuild. After 2016 is when things got tougher and more expensive.
  4. Bellhorn04
    It depends on which franchise you're talking about and the situation you're in. -Epstein is a great GM but has spent piles of money. -Friedman is a great GM but has spent piles of money since he joined the Dodgers.
  5. Bellhorn04
    It's all Ben's fault, actually. 1) Horrendous free agent signings. 2) Left the team with no top of the line pitching. (I'm half-kidding.)
  6. Bellhorn04
    I don't disagree with that. But when you are one of the richest franchises in the game, and it's about one of the greatest players in franchise history - that call is 100% on the owners.
  7. Bellhorn04
    We'll never know that, I guess. But we do know DD is a big believer in paying top players top dollar.
  8. Bellhorn04
    Yeah, Cashman had a stretch there where he was really doing damage.
  9. Bellhorn04
    Not sure if this has been posted here already, but the MLB Players Union has calculated the present value of Mookie's contract at $307 million, because of the deferred money of $115 million. For whatever reason, this doesn't seem to have affected the AAV of the contract the way it did with Chris Sale's. But what's painful about this is that in real dollars, the deal Mookie signed is actually only $7 million more than the Red Sox reported offer of $300 million, and it's for 2 more years. What we'll never know is how much effect the pandemic had on Mookie's decision to take the deal.
  10. Bellhorn04
    100%
  11. Bellhorn04
    True that!
  12. Bellhorn04
    DD wouldn't have failed to sign Mookie if the ownership was willing to pay whatever it took. You know that.
  13. Bellhorn04
    It's possible to be pissed off at the Red Sox ownership for not going all out to keep him, and at the same time give credit to Bloom for doing a good job with the trade.
  14. Bellhorn04
    But if he was going strictly on most recent games, why on earth would he put in a guy who has had 6 bad games in a row?
  15. Bellhorn04
    Sure, I realize the probability is calculated after the fact. But it does show that the Dodgers went quickly from a 42% chance to a 73% chance, and how crucial those at-bats were to the outcome of the game.
  16. Bellhorn04
    This little cliff is no match for Bloom.
  17. Bellhorn04
    Something like starting Denny Galehouse in the playoff game, huh?
  18. Bellhorn04
    Now that is a great sounding team name.
  19. Bellhorn04
    He must have. And I think this highlights one of the things that analytics can't capture. Cash had to make a gut decision on which history to rely on.
  20. Bellhorn04
    You should check out Alex Speier's tweets from the game. He had some in-game analytics on Snell, swing-and-miss rate and exit velocity stuff, indicating that Snell was really having an extraordinarily game. In spite of which, Speier said that pulling Snell was defensible. But he thought that replacing him with Anderson did not make sense.
  21. Bellhorn04
    Over Stock.
  22. Bellhorn04
    In this particular situation, he went with a struggling reliever over his ace starter who was at only 73 pitches, had terrific stuff and had thus far mowed down the hitters who were due up. It seems like a case of analytics defying sense.
  23. Bellhorn04
    His numbers in his 6 previous appearances were somewhat indicative.
  24. Bellhorn04
    Baseball-Reference shows Win Probability, which I can wrap my head around a lot better. When Cash pulled Snell, the Dodgers had a 42% chance of winning. Mookie's double: increased to 56%. Wild pitch, run scores: increased to 65%. Seager's grounder, run scores: increased to 73%. So there was a hefty 31% change on those two at-bats.
  25. Bellhorn04
    Win expectancy is an extremely difficult concept for me to wrap my head around. Would you be able to do a little analysis of it as it pertains to this situation?
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