And you would need some actuarial algorithms to calculate those relative risks.
But I do know one indisputable fact - any player's career can end on a single play.
The thing I remember best about Jimy was that at his press conferences, when he was asked for some insights into strategy or whatever for the upcoming game, his answer was always the same:
"We'll go play."
My opinion, and I'm sticking to it, is that they just didn't want to give Mookie 12 years and 400 million, regardless of any other considerations.
Their risk analyzer spit it out.
Larry, Margot has a career OPS of .693. He had 1 HR and 11 RBI in 47 games this year. But you see him hit a HR in a playoff game and you get all excited about him.