Bellhorn04
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Everything posted by Bellhorn04
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The real question going forward is, are there any starters at all who should be matched with McGuire? 3 starts with Sale - all bad 3 with Kluber - all bad 1 with Bello - bad 1 with Pivetta - good Maybe it will be Pivetta.
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What about yesterday? Maeda makes it 4. It's pretty obvious the team is favoring Wong now, isn't it?
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Here are a few other facts to consider: 1. McGuire seemed to be installed as the # catcher after the trading deadline last year, and I'm fairly sure most people here expected him to be the #1 this year. 2. McGuire has much better offensive numbers than Wong. 3. Wong has started 12 of the last 18 games, including games against RH starters. So maybe, just maybe, the team has somewhat rapidly adjusted its thinking on which one is the better defensive catcher. Regardless of what the conventional stats are showing.
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There are no actual guidelines on any of this that are agreed on. That article took a radically different stance from the oft-mentioned one by Woolner. I have some interest in statistics because I'm an accountant and I've worked on audits where you select samples of records to review for errors. In auditing the principle is that if you find an error in a small sample, there are likely to be plenty more and you have to expand the sample, and it's usually always the case that there are major errors. The thing that can't possibly be measured is the comfort level a pitcher has with the catcher. That's where we get the "binky" word from, of course. I think that's real.
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But again, I think you also have to factor in the size of the variances. I wouldn't be bringing this up if the differences between McGuire and Wong weren't gigantic in both 2022 and 2023.
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And how exactly do you know the sample size, including 2022, is too small, considering the size of the variances? As far as I know there is no actual reference material for this, but I'd be happy to see it.
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It's not what the guy said at all. He said that OPS, like ERA, is defense-dependent. His calculation attempts to eliminate the defense factor.
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All I can really say to that is that the Red Sox have a better shot than some of the last place teams.
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OK, but if we apply it to baseball, a small variance in a small sample size doesn't mean the sample is large enough. The determination of whether the sample size is large enough is always going to be an inexact science. Just ask any baseball manager LOL
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That doesn't make any sense. Small samples are small samples, regardless of variance.
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Oh...97. -
We could certainly do a sig bet.
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And even with that he has the highest bWAR of any of our starters.
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Scherzer in a sticky situation. Maybe Girardi's freakout was justified.
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No, they won't.
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You guys keep talking about sample size with McGuire and Wong. But variance size matters too, and the variance size is enormous. And as the sample size gets bigger the variance is supposed to get smaller. That ain't happening.
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Did you read the whole article?
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Didn't like his last start with Wong?
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Article in the Athletic today about the Sox catching issues, and Cora talking about Vaz and how much he has grown as a player. Cora's words had a "wistful" tone, you might say.
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There are too many things with this team to get into a furor about. Some of them get buried in the mix for a while.
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And Sale's...and as many others as possible...
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I'm going to need a lot of puffs to get through this season, that's for sure.
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The problem is that objective pre-season projections had us at about a .500 team at best...
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Read the article moon. Whether it's misuse is strictly a matter of opinion. This is not an exact science.
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Yeah, but Bloom said he was going to acquire a starter with "leadership, innings and UPSIDE". Kluber has about as much upside as the Titanic. It's a complete joke that Bloom would say something like that and follow it up like that. But we're not laughing.
