Hard to say.
78 wins this year. Add 2 players worth 8 wins, which is easier said than done, and that still only gets you to 86. The rest would have to come from internal improvements, which we're all hoping for, but not really guaranteed.
Yep. The Rays lead the industry in getting the most for their money. Friedman went to LA and has generally kicked butt.
Henry was salivating at getting in on all that. He completely set aside Bloom's lack of experience for the job. As you say he wanted Bloom and had nobody else in mind.
The 2019 season, the high payroll, the bad contracts - sure, they probably played into DD getting the boot. But JH's impatience is clearly off the charts.
I'm only talking about his offense.
2023 team leaders in offensive RAR per FanGraphs:
Casas 15.6 (502 PA)
Devers 14.9 (656)
Duran 14.6 (362)
Duvall 9.7 (353)
Turner 7.4 (626)
Abreu 2.9 (85)
Yoshida 1.6 (580)
JH would be well aware that DD isn't the right guy for rebuilding. You might call it a case of planned obsolescence. JH absolutely did have visions of being the Rays but richer, the next Dodgers. Bloom seemed to fit the profile of the next Friedman to a T.
It was longer than that with McGuire. It was 2 months in 2022 and maybe 3 months in 2023.
McGuire ended up with a 5.30 CERA for 2023, BTW. It improved, obviously, but it's still pretty large.
The obvious answer seems to be that firing DD and cutting payroll were all part of the same "change in philosophy".
Now we seem to need another "change in philosophy".
The cherry-picking that goes on here is amazing.
He still ended up with an .828 OPS and a 121 OPS+. So 21% better than average. Hitting isn't as easy as some people seem to think.
Plus 24 steals, only 2 caught stealing, only 3 double play balls.
He did pretty damn good IMHO, especially given the low expectations coming in.
Now here's something you and I agree on, Nick.
I would not trade Duran. I think he can be a valuable weapon on offense. His speed is elite.
Losing Duran hurt the offense, and then losing Casas finished it off.
I have no idea exactly why DD was fired. As many have said, he seemed to do exactly what he was hired to do.
Maybe JH is just an impatient, ornery prick.
He has fired 3 CBO's in a row after 4 years, after all. It's not like DD is a special case.
I have 75% Scottish blood. My mother's maiden name was Montgomerie, and her brother's name was Hugh. Hugh had sons named Stewart and Duff. That's hardcore Scottish.
So much randomness in the game, especially with the ever changing casts of characters.
Eovaldi and Whitlock had brilliant years in '21. They were close to useless in '22. And so on.
Maybe based on talking to them and observing them over the last few years ownership decided Cora knows more about baseball and team construction than Bloom does. Could be as simple as that.