Bellhorn04
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Everything posted by Bellhorn04
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With your belief that 'being miserable' seeps into performance, we are at least in full agreement on the point that state of mind factors can have a major impact on how a guy plays.
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I understand. All I'm saying is, if a guy's game can be that damaged by being uncomfortable where he's playing -obviously a mental issue- I don't think it's a great stretch to also believe that some guys will be more affected than others by pressure situations. Just my opinion.
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Why? They're both external pressures that affect you psychologically, not physically.
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I don't think the two things are all that dissimilar. You believe that outside influences affected him mentally and directly impacted his performance. I don't see a big leap to believing that pressure situations and the fear of failing in them can directly impact a player's performance.
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It's hard to explain, yes, but it seems to be that certain players are not 'comfortable' in certain environments. I think it's also quite reasonable to believe that certain players are less 'comfortable' than others in certain game situations.
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So how do we explain things like Carl Crawford's inability to play in Boston? Or Daniel Bard losing the ability to throw the ball over the plate? The human psyche is a complex thing.
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To me the whole clutch/choke thing falls into the area of intangibles, like 'a catcher who calls a good game makes a big difference' or 'a good manager makes a big difference.' These have also proven to be extremely difficult assertions to quantify.
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All points taken.
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So Kimmi, if there is no proof, there is also no disproof, and can we really make positive assertions like 'Those players who we often consider to be clutch aren't really clutch.'?
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My beef is that when you do find what seems to be a genuine example of someone who has underperformed in 'the clutch', it gets thrown out on the grounds of small sample sizes. My preference is to use postseason games vs. regular season games, because it's very simple, for one thing. So I try to use Bagwell and Swisher, who have huge gaps in postseason vs. regular season numbers, and it gets tossed on the 'small sample size' argument. Well, okay, yes, postseason samples are small, comparatively speaking, but how will we ever have a big enough sample? That's when the old schooler in me understands some of the frustration with the stat people.
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According to Silverman of Herald, Betts and Castillo will be competing for Opening Day CF. http://www.bostonherald.com/sports/red_sox_mlb/boston_red_sox/2015/03/mookie_betts_rusney_castillo_in_middle_of_true_outfield
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LOL Or if any of his children or grandchildren live in Micronesia?
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Going back to Napoli's career stats with a runner at third, less than 2 outs: It's 252 plate appearances. 52 hits-10 HR, 19 2B, 23 1B 27 sac flies 35 walks 50 strikeouts Napoli strikes out fewer times in those situations than he does in general. He has a better ratio of walks to strikeouts in those situations than he does in general. What I would ask is, where is the evidence that in those situations Napoli isn't using a situational approach, and where's the evidence that he's only swinging for the fences?
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Jeez, take it easy with the barrage of questions. I already said I couldn't explain it and threw a guess out there.
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I don't see how it's the same thing as clutch. Pitchers pitch differently in different situations, that's all I'm saying.
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a) It's pure speculation that it could be better. Mike Napoli is a veteran with an .850 OPS. I think he knows what he's doing better than we do. I think that should be obvious, really. I can't explain it. Maybe he just takes advantage of the way he's pitched in those situations a little more.
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To me, it indicates that his approach in those situations has worked just fine over his career.
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For his career, with a runner on third and less than 2 outs, Napoli has hit 278/357/540 for an OPS of 897, 47 points higher than his overall OPS of 850.
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I understand what you're saying, of course. But I think a guy like Napoli is a smart veteran hitter and if he tried a different approach it could mess him up. I think he knows what's good for him a lot better than we do. And I don't think he swings for the fences all the time either. I've seen him dump plenty of bloopers for singles.
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Comfy pants are great for wearin', not so much for watchin'.
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Sometimes the statistical debates get confused over the differences between the micro picture and the macro picture. If Mike Napoli is up with a runner at third and no outs, of course we would all rather see him hit an RBI groundout than K. That's not the point. The point is that over the course of 162 games Napoli is very productive in spite of striking out so much. Mike Trout was 3rd in MLB in K's last year. Stanton was 9th.
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A pitcher who gets a lot of strikeouts but gives up a high OPS is not as good as a groundball pitcher who gives up a low OPS. A hitter who strikes out a lot but has a high OPS is better than a contact hitter with a low OPS.
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"Back in my dad's day there were only 16 major league teams." "Back in my dad's day the Yankees won the pennant just about every year."
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Yeah but like I think we've discussed here before, even under that grand old system the 2 best teams weren't necessarily the ones that made it.
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Why stop with the Wild Card? Why not go all the back to when there were only 2 teams making the playoffs.
