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Bellhorn04

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Everything posted by Bellhorn04

  1. Bellhorn04
    Swihart had a 3-run jack today off Bud Norris.
  2. Bellhorn04
    Kimmi, here's something interesting I found looking at Papi's career splits: Tie Game .963 (OPS) Score Within 1 Run .960 Within 2 Runs .955 Within 3 Runs .946 Within 4 Runs .937 More than 4 Runs .864 It's interesting how his OPS drops a bit as the game margin increases, and then drops a lot in one-sided games. It doesn't prove anything, but it does at least suggest that his focus is a bit sharper when the game is closer. In a lot of those one-sided games you're facing the dregs of the other team's staff, too, so you'd think that's where you could really fatten up. But if you've watched a lot of Sox games you do get the feeling in those blowout situations that Papi just wants to hack away and get the at-bat over with, to conserve himself, perhaps.
  3. Bellhorn04
    I don't know about you Kimmi, but I smell another Boy Scout camp.
  4. Bellhorn04
    Absolutely. Choking is a big factor in golf and it's pretty much out in the open. After all, it's the game where many players have gotten 'the yips'.
  5. Bellhorn04
    Good post. Nice touch of irony there.
  6. Bellhorn04
    Now I think we are much closer to being on the same page. I have come to think that 'clutch' means 'not choking' rather than raising one's game, as you say. So you can only be 'clutch' in comparison to competitors who are 'choking' more than you are.
  7. Bellhorn04
    Right. Then again, A-Rod's regular season OPS is 125 points higher than Jeter's. I also have to wonder about that great postseason A-Rod had in 2009. It was his finest hour, but considering what we know about the guy, suspicions are raised.
  8. Bellhorn04
    Cliff Lee pitched 2 scoreless today. Let's do it!
  9. Bellhorn04
    Just for fun I will base the decision on their career numbers with bases loaded and 2 outs: Ortiz 330/378/659 A-Rod 270/359/574 Jeter 321/407/389 So Ortiz over A-Rod is an obvious pick. I'd take Jeter over A-Rod because you only need one run and he has a higher OBP. If the Yanks were down more than one run you'd have to consider A-Rod because of the higher SLG.
  10. Bellhorn04
    Exactly. There is no good whatsoever that can come out of it.
  11. Bellhorn04
    You believe that choking is real, though, right?
  12. Bellhorn04
    You're concerned about his interleague numbers, though, right?
  13. Bellhorn04
    Fred, please stop bringing up what happened on other boards here. Several people have already said they don't want to hear about it.
  14. Bellhorn04
    Here's an example of where stats can be of little help: what impact would moving to Boston have on Cole Hamels's numbers? How much does that 4.54 ERA against AL teams mean? Would Hamels be 'uncomfortable' in Boston?
  15. Bellhorn04
    Exactly - and that's what makes them clutch. It's the guys who do things differently in those situations, because their heart rates have accelerated way above normal etc., that aren't clutch.
  16. Bellhorn04
    Again I perish on the rocks of small samples.
  17. Bellhorn04
    I mostly agree. As you pointed out earlier, the 8th inning guy will often be the one who has to get through the heart of the order, so in those cases he has the tougher assignment. The only thing I would point out is that all other things being equal, the leverage in the 9th inning is a bit highet than the leverage in the 8th.
  18. Bellhorn04
    Hendu Henderson? Reg season OPS .756 Postseason OPS .946
  19. Bellhorn04
    It also looks like we're going to be killer in one-run games this year.
  20. Bellhorn04
    Clutch for pitchers = Curt Schilling. My methodology is admittedly very primitive. All I do is compare postseason to regular season. I'd like to know more about how regular season 'clutch situations' are determined. Is there any weight given to the importance of the game? If clutch/not clutch is a myth, how do we explain Ortiz's postseason numbers vs. Bagwell's? Small sample for Bagwell, I suppose.
  21. Bellhorn04
    Hey, now some of those really were small samples. Here's what I think: it's impossible to be a clutch hitter all the time. Pitchers have the advantage and major league pitchers are really really good. All I'm contending is that Ortiz is more clutch than average. And Bagwell and Swisher were less clutch than average.
  22. Bellhorn04
    There you go. Henry signs Bill James's cheques and yet he gives a plaque for clutch hitting. Case closed, I'd say.
  23. Bellhorn04
    I think a lot of David Ortiz's numbers do bear out that he's been a clutch hitter over his career. Starting with his career postseason OPS of .962, which is higher than his regular season OPS of .926. That's not a big difference, obviously. But when you take into account the higher leverage of the games, and the higher overall caliber of the opposing pitching, I think I could come up with a formula that makes the difference a lot bigger. Then you have his absurd World Series line of 455/576/795 = 1.372 OPS.
  24. Bellhorn04
    Are postseason numbers included in these analyses?
  25. Bellhorn04
    Red Sox sweep, 2-1 and 1-0. So much for the big upgrades on offense!
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