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Bellhorn04

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Everything posted by Bellhorn04

  1. Bellhorn04
    Exactly, I'm glad someone other than me brought golf into it. Johnny Miller, NBC's golf commentator, talks about choking all the time. And he's pretty qualified to talk about it, considering that he won 25 PGA tournaments, including the US Open and British Open, and is in his sport's Hall of Fame.
  2. Bellhorn04
    That's one thing. The other is that postseason sample sizes are too small. The combination of the two means that trying to prove or disprove clutch is an exercise in futility. We do have wide variances in postseason numbers. You say randomness is the only explanation. I think there may be others.
  3. Bellhorn04
    I'm not even sure we should be favored over Cleveland.
  4. Bellhorn04
    Yeah, I have to agree. We have 3 more years of Bogey left, if we don't trade him.
  5. Bellhorn04
    Sure, why wouldn't you? Your chances are 5 times as good. It's a wash.
  6. Bellhorn04
    Except that's exactly what we're doing, comparing the two players.
  7. Bellhorn04
    Are you saying that 1.4 runs a game isn't a lot, when the league average is 4.5 runs?
  8. Bellhorn04
    In 2016 the Red Sox team batting average was .282. Oakland's team batting average was .246. Small difference? Well, the Red Sox scored 225 more runs, or 1.39 runs more per game, so I'm going to say no.
  9. Bellhorn04
    Faulty math in my opinion. The difference between 5% and 1% is also 4% - out of 100%. But 5% is 5 times as much as 1%.
  10. Bellhorn04
    And don't the ranges get bigger with pitchers? If we say a good pitcher has a 3.2 ERA and a bad pitcher has a 4.8 ERA, that's a 50% difference. Not small at all.
  11. Bellhorn04
    Also the difference between .280 and .240 is 16.67%.
  12. Bellhorn04
    So does that mean the difference between a good hitter and a bad hitter is an illusion, because the range is so small?
  13. Bellhorn04
    I do agree with that. But the real stat gurus seem to be saying that the skills are all scientifically measurable by statistical profiles, and the clutch/non-clutch doesn't exist, so when you get down to it randomness is the only thing that's left to decide the outcome.
  14. Bellhorn04
    The theory that clutch/non-clutch is strictly attributable to randomness is just that, it's a theory. It may be the correct theory. But it's not conclusive proof, because conclusive proof is simply impossible.
  15. Bellhorn04
    Yeah, but the 'performances' are all just randomness in action. The players show up and play and whatever happens happens.
  16. Bellhorn04
    The problem is that with baseball you can bury so much in randomness. Look at Schilling. Regular season ERA 3.46 WHIP 1.14 K/BB 4.38 Postseason 19 starts ERA 2.23 WHIP .97 K/BB 4.80 He was an excellent pitcher in the regular season but in the postseason he took it to a higher level. Look at those numbers, all against playoff caliber teams, obviously. But what I gather is that the argument is that the excellence of those numbers may be mere randomness - that he could have had a stretch like that in the regular season as well. Well, maybe he could have. But is there really proof that it was all randomness? I don't see how.
  17. Bellhorn04
    Great player, but he wasn't Hendu.
  18. Bellhorn04
    Sigh...
  19. Bellhorn04
    Pretty hard to answer that one.
  20. Bellhorn04
    More jobs: Brett Butler Joe Tinker
  21. Bellhorn04
    Ain't it the truth.
  22. Bellhorn04
    And I don't disagree with any of that.
  23. Bellhorn04
    Terry Francona provides a pretty good example of why Boston can be a hard place to play (or manage). The guy wins 2 titles in 8 years after the 0 for 85 stretch, and yet for many Sox fans he was Francoma or Sit and Spit or a guy who was just lucky to have such good teams. The biggest shock for me when I first joined a Red Sox forum in 2007 was how much grief Francona was taking there.
  24. Bellhorn04
    Nice post!
  25. Bellhorn04
    Occupations (including old-time ones) Catfish Hunter Mike Butcher Brett Gardner Chris Carpenter Wally Joyner Cecil Cooper Ron Taylor
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