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Bellhorn04

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Everything posted by Bellhorn04

  1. Bellhorn04
    Giving up a lot for one year of Machado just doesn't make sense. I'm sure they'll have suitors for him at the deadline though.
  2. Bellhorn04
    Interesting theory. If you could back that up with a research study they might have to hire you at FanGraphs!
  3. Bellhorn04
    That may be so. But the WAR differences for some pitchers, like Archer, are so large that it's almost a joke. If you use Archer's fWAR for the last 2 seasons he looks like an ace. If you use bWAR he looks like a #4 pitcher. This can create a lot of confusion for a fan who has enough interest in WAR to look at it, but not enough interest to study it.
  4. Bellhorn04
    Right, we 'only lose one season' of Bogey. But we also 'only get one season' of Machado. Plus we give up more. Yuck that.
  5. Bellhorn04
    It makes no sense at all. We could sign Martinez for half as much money and not give up any talent whatsoever.
  6. Bellhorn04
    You're right, it was a loose statement by me to say 'all the metrics'. I was only looking at his bWAR and fWAR numbers. If anything this seems like a good reason to just look at total WAR. If you use that he's clearly been a plus player.
  7. Bellhorn04
    I can't see any way Machado would agree to an extension unless it was the $350 million or so that some have speculated he could get next year. So we would be trading a lot of talent for 1 year of his services, plus signing him to the biggest free agent contract in history. Yuck.
  8. Bellhorn04
    This get a little confusing. Is he horrible or slightly below average? UZR/150 is the only defensive metric I look at.
  9. Bellhorn04
    Plus a vesting option that could make it 4 yrs / 66 million. The guaranteed AAV of 17.33 is a record for relievers, higher than Chapman's 17.2.
  10. Bellhorn04
    Good offenses, yes, but that doesn't really explain an .842 OPS against an 'ace'. Some pitchers have trouble in some parks.
  11. Bellhorn04
    Not true. All the metrics have him just around average or a hair below. So-so is a fair description.
  12. Bellhorn04
    If you use bWAR, on the other hand, Archer's WAR numbers are not nearly as impressive. And then the metrics themselves come into question.
  13. Bellhorn04
    After giving it some consideration I don't think I would trade Benintendi for Archer. Archer's numbers at Fenway are really bad. 7 starts, 33.1 IP, 27 ER, 41 H, 23 BB, 1.92 WHIP, .842 OPS. Small sample but a frightening one.
  14. Bellhorn04
    No doubt, but for these very reasons the Rays would be asking for a huge return for Archer...they also have a history of not trading with other AL East teams I think...
  15. Bellhorn04
    None of the top free agents outside of Santana have signed yet, however. This offseason is a different one.
  16. Bellhorn04
    They unloaded assets but they also unloaded a lot of debt. Who knows where they're headed from here. Do they even want to stay in Miami or are they dreaming of Vegas or some other new locale.
  17. Bellhorn04
    In the regular season, getting the opposing team's starting pitcher out of the game after 5 innings or so should still give you a good advantage. Not many teams can cover 4 innings with all good relievers, certainly not on a consistent basis. I really think a more balanced approach is the best - patient, but not too predictable.
  18. Bellhorn04
    Vladimir Guerrero would swing at anything.
  19. Bellhorn04
    It's a lot like rock-paper-scissors when you get down to it.
  20. Bellhorn04
    Another thing that amuses me about complaints about taking the first pitch is that nobody particularly likes it when the team goes down 1-2-3 on a small number of pitches. Someone will always make a comment like 'Wow, that was fast!' We only really like it when the guy swings and gets a hit. All that said, I don't disagree that being predictable can be a problem and that swinging on the first pitch sometimes is a good idea. I'm pretty sure we'll see a lot more of it next year.
  21. Bellhorn04
    Of course those 0-1 counts include PA's where he swung at the first pitch too. Also, Pedey may have been the 'worst' at taking the first pitch but he also had the highest OBP on the team.
  22. Bellhorn04
    Dave is back in action!
  23. Bellhorn04
    No issue with FanGraphs, as an accountant I get the rounding thing.
  24. Bellhorn04
    They had the best offense in the majors in 2016, so it didn't seem to be much of a problem. Last year was a whole different story.
  25. Bellhorn04
    2015 1.6 2016 5.1 2017 2.0 +0.1 for rounding LOL
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