Two bad years, and a bunch of injuries. It's not "Low risk, high ceiling", it's "Low cost, moderate ceiling". I'm not one for hyperbole.
Why go for crappy depth signings when they could have had a guy like Marcum for cheap and then figure out the rest along the way? You know, since Marcum has always had success as a soft tosser (in the AL East to boot) and doesn't have diminishing velocity and a pitful K rate.