Which is the point of Hot Stove threads. They are for fun and not likely to happen.
For many of us, we start thinking baseball in February and are not capable of turning off the thoughts when the Sox happen to end their season.
That said, I'd like to make a few points...just because I can't stop.
* The Red Sox' greatest need is to improve their starting pitching.
- There is the option of C.J.Wilson as a free agent, but he will be an expensive gamble over 6 or 7 years. Boston is not his likely destination. Lackey and Matsuzaka have proven this to be unsafe road to travel.
* The Red Sox lead the AL or were second in the major offensive catagories.
-Even with Ellsbury out of the totals, they have a wealth of offense on the roster and pretty much in the system.
* Jacoby Ellsbury just had possibly a career year.
-Minor league statistics are an accurate predictor of future production, and Ellsbury had never broken double figures in homeruns an any one season.
-He will be a free agent in two years.
* The Giants have a terrible offense.
- It cost them a chance to defend their title.
* The Giants have wealth of starting pitchers.
-Lincecum, Cain, Baughgarden, and Sanchez.
* Lincecum may not be untouchable.
-Stats show some decline. It is not significant but is steady.
-As has been pointed out, his size and delivery are factors.
-He will be a free agent in two years.
* For the Sox to acquire substantial starting pitching improvement, they are going to have sacrifice something of value.
- Free agency money is unlikely.
-They will have to trade a player or players of value.
This all brings us to two years of Lincecum for two years of Ellsbury. With the current market for free agent starting aces, two years of any starter sounds ideal (safe) to me. In two years, the Sox hopefully will have developed some other options for developing a starting staff.
Ellsbury will test the market after two years. Boras clients do that.
Some here may be old enought to remember when Fred Lynn and Jim Rice came up with the Red Sox at the tail end of 1974. Both were highly touted, but it was Fred Lynn who was the Rookie of the Year and Most Valuable Player in 1975. Rice was good, but Lynn was golden.
If judged on that one year, Lynn would be in the Hall of Fame and Rice would be just another in a line of good Sox outfielders. As it turned out, Rice was the HOFer because he had a better career. Lynn, like Ellsbury, played centerfield and that took its toll on his health. If Lynn had played left or right his whole career, he may have stayed healthy enough, but we will never know. Injuries are hard to call, but centerfielders have to cover a lot of ground to either side and do wear down and get injured.
If anyone is still reading, thanks for putting up with this rambling post.