Spitball

I understand there are coaches and players he has already stopped talking to.

I say Bobby Valentine is likely fired in the next 24 hours...or less. When team officials travel 3,000 miles on a fact finding mission, something is up. I have heard some other things, also. I think Valentine wants out.

Hamilton has had some slips with the alcohol. I won't post the stories or pictures, but they are out there and easy enought to find. He has a problem and it has to be a worry. Johnny Narron used to be his "baby sitter" on the road but left to take a job with the Brewers. Currently, I believe his father-in-law serves in the that role. Substances abuse is a lifelong battle.

He will fetch less if he leaves via free agency.

I think the Ellsbury situation is one of the most important decisions that the front office has to make. I believe they need to address it this winter. This winter they need to determine if they can possibly contend in 2013. If they decide they are rebuilding the foundation, they need to trade Ellsbury this winter. They need to find out if Ellsbury and Boras are open to signing with the Red Sox, or do they plan to test the open market. If they don't get some kind of commitment, they need to trade Ellsbury this winter. If Ellsbury is willing to sign a 2-year $30 million, then sign him. Ellsbury is one of my favorite players. I have an Ellsbury jersey...but it might be wise to trade him this winter. 1) Jackie Bradley is on the horizon to play centerfield. 2) In all likelyhood, the Sox are not contending in 2013. 3) The Sox need resources to trade for pitching. 4) Scott Boras is a dickhead. 5) Players who rely on speed will eventually see that skill erode.

We can hope this is the case. I doubt the Dodgers will be players for Ellsbury, but the Angels, Nationals , White Sox and Rangers could be big spenders for Ellsbury's services. Like you said, who knows what thought processes will be going through the heads of certain general managers. We have seen lots of players, especially outfielders, first basemen, and pitchers, get ridiculous contracts in recent years. As much as i like Ellsbury, I would rather the Sox trade him this winter.

Perfect, if Boras agrees.

Maybe not, but we have Scott Boras involved here. He will be pounding the Crawford dollars point. If the Rangers decide not persue Hamilton, I wounder about an Ellsbury for Elvis Andrus deal. They have their top prospect as a shortstop while the Sox have a top prospect in centerfielder Jackie Bradley.

I don't think the Yankees will sign Ellsbury because of luxory tax issues.

Along with the injuries, Boras is the bummer factor here. You would think Ellsbury should be willing to sign a reasonable contract to stay in Boston, but I can't think of a time Boras has operated that way. I think they should re-sign him if the price is well below the Crawford money and years...but I doubt that will be the case. If they think he will be too expensive, I hope they will convert him into starting pitching, especially with Bradley and Brentz waiting in the wings.

Do the Red Sox give Ellsbury a contract similar to the one they gave Carl Crawford? With Scott Boras representing Ellsbury, I assume he will use Crawford's contract as his goal. I say they should not. First, it is foolish to give Crawford money and contract length to anyone, especially a player whose skills are basically driven by speed. Also, the Red Sox have a highly regarded and nearly-ready prospect Jackie Bradley coming up to play centerfield. Ellsbury has had two major injuries that have limited his play. They were freaky injuries, but who knows if they will continue? With a Red Sox "bridge year" coming in 2013, should the Sox trade Ellsbury this winter, re-sign him, or enjoy his walk year and let him leave?

If he can play shortstop at the major league level, the Red Sox should be in great shape. Pedroia, Bogaerts, and Middlebrooks in the infield for the next several years and Bradley and Brentz in the outfield should mean the Sox can invest in some quality pitching. Bank on Swihart as the catcher of the future, and the Sox will build their wway back better than ever.

Ahhh! That explains things. The link you posted just proved you were not a good link poster.

I have looked at this link with a microscope and can't find the evidence. What am I missing?

I remember 1966. The Sox were bad. They finished half a game out of last place just ahead of the Yankees. They were bad, but at least they were better than the 1965 team that lost 100 games. In 1966, they were bad but improving...and no one expected the miracle of 1967. I remember in 1966 the Sox traded away two of my favorite pitchers in Dick Radatz and Earl Wilson. George Scott was a rookie and had an incredible first half. They played a guy at second base named George Smith who was Nick Punto-lite. Jim Lonborg was beginning to seperate himself from the endless string of terrible pitchers coming from the minor leagues. I also remember going to a game that year with a friend of mine and his dad. We walked up and got seats a few rows behind the Red Sox dugout. Jerry Stephenson was the starting pitcher against the Kansas City Athletics and was walking everyone. The reason I remember this game so well I suppose is because of something that happened before the game. My friend and I were trying to get autographs but were being totally ignored by the players. Then we asked outfielder Lenny Green for his autograph. He was the only one who even acknowleged us. He pointed to an usher up in the stands. Green said, "See that man up there? If I sign an autograph, he'll kick me out of the ballpark. I've got a ballgame to play." We totally believed him. When we got back to our seats and told my friend's dad what we'd been told, he laughed and laughed until he was wiping tears from his eyes. That friend and I laughed about also through the years.

Anyone else remember the September call ups in 1974? They were so full of promise the press started calling them the Gold Dust Twins (at least I believe that was the nickname).

I see he has been called up...and still hasn't figured it out.

Brandon Moss has 14 homers for Oakland. He was 2007 Red Sox minor league player of the year.

The arbitration clock has taken the fun out of September call-ups. With Middlebrooks, Ryan Lavarnway, Jose Iglesias and Ryan Kalish already called up, I suppose we are seeing the guys who will likely be on the big league team in 2013. I wonder about Daniel Bard. Perhaps he needs more time to figure things out before he faces big league batters.

I am hearing Rich Hill is the only one when the rosters expand tomorrow. I was hoping to at least see outfielder Bryce Brentz called up. Perhaps the Sox don't want to start the arbitration clock on their prospects.

At least I have produced a study. I have always respected your posts, but you are producing an opinion and nothing else.

I am guessing here, but I doubt you even looked at the study or didn't understand the graphs. "To generate a list of players who seem headed toward stardom, I selected players since 1980 who had a total of 20-plus WAR during a three-year span. Also, I took the players who generated WAR of 9.5 or more in a single season."

"At 30, great players begin to see a pronounced decline." But you are missing this point. There might be a sharper drop 33-35, but the serious decline starts at 30.

Here is a study done last winter by Jeff Zimmerman on FanGraphs. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/how-do-star-hitters-age/

Hamilton has put up numbers that will entice teams to overpay for too many years. General managers know they will not be in office for the duration of these contracts...but we will still be fans for that time (see Theo Epstein and those of us here on Talksox). Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford, Josh Beckett, Albert Pujols, and others will drain their teams' futures when they have the natural regression of skills that comes with age. With Josh Hamilton, there is the added problem of drug addiction. He is a gifted player. He is my daughter's favorite non-Red Sox player. I would not over-pay for any player with age and drugs issues.