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iortiz

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Everything posted by iortiz

  1. iortiz
    Growth/variable rates through the life of a project make sense when the excersise is long, at least 10 Y I would say. A simple compound discount rate represents pretty well the behavior of a cash flow of a given excersise when the time is under 10 Y. On the other hand, as you said, the Sox are expecting this guy improves because his age, sox defense or whatever the thought is behind, but not to perform as his track record suggests (2.5 WAR/4+ ERA). IMO this guy doesn't have the stuff to survive in ERAs under 4 in the coming future reason why I offered that bet, and reason why I think this commitment is horrible . Of course still to be seen how this ends up.
  2. iortiz
    The salary inflation that FG uses to project salaries, does not justify high AVV unless he improves. As I said you do not understand how engineering economics work
  3. iortiz
    The discount rate to project salaries is at 4%, so 20 M in three/four years for a #3 is still too much. My approach to grab a 4 ERA pitcher in a year basis would have been different without commit 80 M and likely cheaper.
  4. iortiz
    I That's the thing. I do not think he is going to improve. Some here disagree which is fine. IMO, At very best He'll post what his track record says and given the NPV of the contract, there's no way he worth 20 M in the next 4 Y, If he doesn't improve those numbers. Probably everyone here disagrees with my opinion, reason why I offered a bet which on paper was very friendly for those who think the opposite. It's going to be interesting.
  5. iortiz
    Nice try, but the fact you don't understand how the time value of money works is not my fault. Paying high AVV with discount rates at 4% is stupid.
  6. iortiz
    To understand the cash flow and NPV we are talking about.
  7. iortiz
    What you do not understand is how engineering economics, time value of money, cash flows, and discount rates work. The discount rate used by FG to project salaries is 4%. This rate is not even comparable to some discount rates used in other industries which are at times above 2 digits. If we were talking about, say a discount rate used in some verticals of the chemical industry which are around 20%, I could understand and justify this 4 Y-contract looking forward, since the NPV would look pretty decent. Said that, the only way this contract works, is that this guy improves his track record, which is to be seen.
  8. iortiz
    Wow! De la Rosa is nothing but a bust.
  9. iortiz
    You mean last season?, if so I'm Oks with that, although his WAR was not good.
  10. iortiz
    He has not shown to be a very very good pitcher, nor good pitcher. He is nothing but a solid one in terms of WAR. His track record does not justify 20 by any means. Something around 3.5 makes you a good pitcher, nothing more, nothing less... Say a decent No. 2 .My guess is that our FO is expecting this from him to justify his contract.
  11. iortiz
    The terms of the contract are not that long. It is only 4 years, and given the discount rate that FG use to project salaries, the NPV is not that different from the current salary in a year basis (20 M). Said that if he still posting something around 2.5 WAR/4 ERA, this contract will be a disaster. Every offseason out there are some pitchers who can post something around those numbers in a year basis without commit all this money and cheaper.
  12. iortiz
    Expecting ace performance from Porcello? Not at all pal. If he post an ERA around 3.5 (No 2. Type) or in terms of WAR around 3.5 (good player), I will call it deal. Put that in your sig.
  13. iortiz
    oh, that is a very different animal. Some here were saying that this FO is expecting what he has shown in the recent past which is something around 2.5. I agree with you, I think this FO is expecting more from him to justify this contract. If he continuous posting a 2.5 WAR in the next four years, this contract will be a disaster since as far I remember no one with a 2.5 WAR track record is making 20 M. As you said time will tell, though.
  14. iortiz
    Again, how many pitchers with a 2.5 WAR track record are making 20 M these days aside Porcello? it's a honest question.
  15. iortiz
    The NPV is practically the same compared with the number I presented.
  16. iortiz
    Pessimist? Naaahh, it is just that this pitching staff isn't encouraging at all to me. On the other hand our offense to me is one of the best in baseball.
  17. iortiz
    Hate to say that the first one is closer to reality than the 2nd one to me, but hopefully the No. 2 is the real deal Pal. The number 3 is hilarious.
  18. iortiz
    ....only if we still alive the by the time which worries me a bit given the pitching. Given the list above for middle-rotation guys I only like Kazmir. Cueto IMO is pipe-dream. While out there probably will be options, it will be tough to trade for someone worthy, though.
  19. iortiz
    Yup, that's why one thing are the projections, and a very different animal what in real life happens. Probably I'm wrong, but I do not see any SP with a track record of 2.5 WAR/Y making 20 M.
  20. iortiz
    According to FG, Porcello is a Solid Starter in terms of WAR. Wonder how many solid starters are making 20 M these days. FG use a 4% rate to calculate the inflation in order to project salaries, if true, his contract in terms of NPV is around 72 M. Once again, how many solid starters are/will make 18 M in the next 4 years. Scrub 0-1 WAR Role Player 1-2 WAR Solid Starter 2-3 WAR Good Player 3-4 WAR All-Star 4-5 WAR Superstar 5-6 WAR MVP 6+ WAR
  21. iortiz
    scaring new posters? really?
  22. iortiz
    Everybody makes him contact at plate. I do not like pitchers who depend a lot on their defences to get outs. He is not a swing and miss pitcher, so as OU said, the BABIP death will kill him sooner or later. A lot have been said about him but time will tell, though, just like it has spoken for Papelbon who is still saving a lot games and earning his pay check.
  23. iortiz
    Because he is a No. 4, at best No 3. His age does not justify 20 M. His stuff doesn't worth 20 M, not in this earth. On the other hand we agree on Pujol's contract, it is a mess.
  24. iortiz
    ...and it is fine! Some posters say that we agree in everything, can you believe it? haha BTW, I have already a bet regarding Porcello with you right?
  25. iortiz
    You are taking this in the wrong way MVP. I think my pal already explained this better than I could.
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