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iortiz

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Everything posted by iortiz

  1. iortiz
    Apologize accepted, although it is not exactly what I said haha.
  2. iortiz
    Masterson is at 5+ ERA again. We need to do something otherwise this could get out of the hands early.
  3. iortiz
    DeGrom seemed pretty well. Ubaldo being Ubaldo again.
  4. iortiz
    Well, As bell said everything has been said about Porcello. Time to let the numbers talk. Now... What about the rest of the rotation? Seems like Masterson is improving. Miley at this point is a total mystery to me IDK what can we get from him. Buch is a lost cause. I had high hopes on Kelly but I'm not sure anymore.
  5. iortiz
    Hearing right now on ESPNdeportes that the Sox are very interested in Papelbon.
  6. iortiz
    Better Os vs NYM game ends up unders
  7. iortiz
    You would surprise which metric correlates better a W at the end of 5 IP. No 1. OPS (team faced) vs Pitcher, 2. SO/BB 3. ERA 4. SIERA, 5. XFIP 6. WAR.
  8. iortiz
    Well, I disagree if he doesn't improve. I already presented my arguments as well. I think we will agree in disagree.
  9. iortiz
    Hey Bell, I'm going to ask you something. If you were willing to bet in a game and you had to choose one pitching metric and only one, which one would you choose in order to have more possibilities to win in that single game at the end of 5 IP?
  10. iortiz
    Yup, I think I could (VIA FA/trade/farm/actual guys, etc) and cheaper. In a retrospective way go and figure which pitchers posted 2.5 WAR say in the last 5 years and look how much are making. As I said I think I would have pretty good chances to grab at least one who can provide me that WAR and cheaper.
  11. iortiz
    How's that?
  12. iortiz
    mmm... So? What's your point? I have never correlated WAR with ERA. What I said is that neither 2.5 WAR pitcher nor 4.3 ERA pitcher are making and won't make 20 M like the guy you are presenting.
  13. iortiz
    Yup but still a 2.5 WAR (new school) or 4.3 ERA (old school) track record pitcher is not making/will make 20 M.
  14. iortiz
    /=or
  15. iortiz
    Exactly, the thing is that we do not have a #1 nor #2. Listen, if the strategy had been sign/trade/keep/farm a bunch of Mastersons (as they did) AND sign a #1 and #2 this team would have been really nice even if that had meant not bringing Panda. Thing is that they put all their chips on the O, reason why I said at the beginning of the season that this team was very unbalanced to the point and reason why I started this thread.
  16. iortiz
    Porcello wouldn't be even a concern to me. Also, if he keeps posting those numbers (his track record 4.3 ERA/2.5 WAR) I do not see teams in a rush to lock him out, do you?. As I said, my strategy for #3-5 would be signing a bunch of low risk (cheap)/high reward pitchers rounding them with some prospects from the farm and/or arms via trades. My real concern would be trying to sign a true No1 and a true No2 like Lester and Shields type, like last offseason.
  17. iortiz
    haha I already said my offer.
  18. iortiz
    ... more to my favor, As I said, I think I could find a ~2.5 WAR/4.3 ERA player cheaper and without committing big bucks/Ys.
  19. iortiz
    Thing is that I would never, ever lock out a No 3-4 type since out there always are plenty of options year after year. On the other hand if Porcello were willing to sign a 1 Y contract in 2016, and if he keeps posting something around 4.3 ERA, I would pay no more than 15 M and probably less.
  20. iortiz
    Thing is that you just can not take your projection/Ys out of the equation. Again, if you want a guy who can provide you in a year basis something around ~2.5 WAR, out there are vasty of options every year to cover those numbers and cheaper without commit tons of money. Figure out at BBR. On the other hand if you want a guy who has attached a track record around 4-5 WAR and durable (Lester type), it will be very difficult to find out in the first place, and if you find him, you have to pay and commit big bucks and Ys.
  21. iortiz
    LOL!, I just did Pal. On the other hand, if you want me to tell you what is going the market offer for a guy who has a profile around 2.5 WAR and 4.3 ERA, I do not think the market were willing to pay 20 M, not even close for this profile. It will depend on the new projection (for this profile), years, players available, budget, needs, etc.
  22. iortiz
    Well, It depends on the scenario I project. If the projection (which I think it will be) were his WAR tendency (2.5) and ERA career numbers (4.3), I wouldn't lock him out in the first place. In that scenario I would wait and see what the market suggests for an arm with that profile at the end of the season.
  23. iortiz
    I think that the right question should be what numbers do you want? If you want a potential arm who can provide you a ~2.5 WAR/4.3 ERA, the possibilities out there are vasty year after year without paying 20 M and committing 80 M. Also, Let me put it this way, if he posts what his track record suggests this year (~2.5 WAR, 4.3 ERA) I do not see any team in a rush to throw 80 M at him. As I said, the Red Sox are pretty sure that this guy is going to improve reason why they wanted lock him out early.
  24. iortiz
    Durability + excellence through 6 Y+ is pretty rare to see in baseball specially at pitching. Lester, Shields, Papelbon, etc. are examples of those rare specimens, reason why even at early 30s, the age is not that big concern compared with those good arms who arguably are even slightly better than the names I presented but are not durable like some named by Divinity. My guess this is why the Cubs paid what they paid for Lester. The problem or the big question with Porcello to justify this contract is: is he already at his prime? or his prime is about to come. If the answer is yes for the question No.1, there's no way in hell I pay 20 M for a mid-rotation guy who is going to keep his track record or his improvement is not going to be that much (~2.5 WAR). On the other hand if the answer is yes for the second one (3-4 WAR player), it makes a lot of sense regardless the strategy behind (defence, young, etc.). My guess in this case the Red Sox paid for the second one.
  25. iortiz
    Still isn't enough to call it trend, Bell. On the other hand, in terms of WAR, there's a trend, he is nothing but a 2.7 WAR at best in the last three years (included the last one when he posted a 3.5 ERA). That trend suggest me that he is going to be around those numbers (No. 3 type) reason why I offered a public bet (to make it interesting). No one posting a track record of 2.7 is making/will make 20 M for the next 4 Y given the DR%, reason why he needs to improve to justify this contract.
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