SoxFanForsyth

I think it's pretty clear that Lackey was hurt the majority of the season. Say what you want, but players don't go from a 4.40 ERA to a 6.41 ERA over 1 season and have TJ surgery at the end of the season which ultimately tacks on 1 season at league minimum without being hurt. If Lackey threw to a 4.40 ERA rather than a 6.41 ERA last year, the Sox don't miss the PS.

The Sox are extremely determined to get under the LT threshold this year so that the LT calculations reset. Also - @Bellhorn - The entire $7-8mm wouldn't be subject to LT. Only the amount over the LT threshold is subject. So if we sign Oswalt to 1/7.5mm and that puts us over by $2mm, then he's around an 8.3mm player in total cost.

Please explain how, for the 2012 season, Pineda is an upgrade over the 2011 Colon. Colon: 3.38 K/BB, 111 ERA+, 1.290 WHIP. All while playing in the AL East. Pineda: 3.15 K/BB, 103 ERA+, 1.10 WHIP. All while playing at Safeco. Pineda's WHIP is going to increase when he plays in a bandbox in every home and away game. He's not an improvement in 2012.

And by the way, if it netted us Oswalt and Jurrjens, I wouldn't mind making Aviles our starting 3B.

We need to get an updated payroll for the Sox in terms of LT. If we dished Youk for Jurrjens, it would save us about 7.3mm in AAV (Jurrjens 1/3.25mm, Youk 4/42mm). Take that extra 7.3mm and give Oswalt a 5.5mm + incentive laden deal which could boost him to 8mm if he reaches 230 IP (maybe $500k for every 10 IP after 190 IP). Then you have a rotation of Lester - Beckett - Buchholz - Jurrjens - Oswalt, and a bullpen that has Aceves, Melancon, Bard, and Bailey.

Park factors. Line ups. And oh by the way. You're projecting Kuroda to replicate a career year. And for Garcia to replicate a career year.

Braves need a power hitter of some sort. Either a corner OF spot or at 3B. They could deal Jurrjens and get away with it. I'm not a huge Jurrjens fan, but I'd go Youk + 1 mid level prospect for Jurrjens. Both have injury concerns.

If you're so confident, put this in your sig until next October. I'll tell you right now. Pineda will end 2013 with an ERA of 4.10+.

His BABIP was .258. His HR/9 was 0.95. You think that's going to go down when he goes to NY? I'm sorry. Was Bill James making that prediction with a magic ball that said he'd be playing for the Yankees? Be realistic man. FIP is based on ERA and fielder independence. It has nothing to do with park factors.

Lets be honest. Moving from the AL West to the AL East is a huge jump. Any progressions he makes from last year will be offset by the powerful and patient AL East hitters. I would say his numbers will almost certainly regress from last year, even if he does become a better pitcher. He would have been about a 4.30-4.35 last year in NY. Hector Noesi posted a 4.47 ERA, and had a 99 ERA+, so I think 4.30-4.35 would be about right for the translation of Pineda.

Kuroda is a good #4-#5 pitcher. He's not someone I would ever want to count on in a top 3 of the rotation, or in a post season match up. That said, if Hughes steps up, he could take the #3 spot. To be honest, I was never all that impressed with Pineda. He's a big guy, got a big arm, but he gets torched in small parks. Not trying to be biased, but I don't think the Yankees rotation got all that much better to be honest. Look at last year. You had Colon who posted a 111 ERA+ that you are replacing with Pineda, who posted a 103 ERA+. Long term, definitely a big step in the right direction. But it's kind of like when the Sox replaced Beltre and Vic with Gonzo and Crawford. In 2011, the production was projected to be similar. But going forward, you were getting much more production with Gonzo and Crawford than you were with Vic and Beltre. The big step is obviously Kuroda (121 ERA+) over Burnett (86 ERA+). But - a lot of that will be offset if Kuroda returns to his career norm of around a 111 ERA+, and if Garcia returns to his career norm of around a 109 ERA+ (he had a 122 ERA+ in 2011). Summary - Pineda + Kuroda (2011 numbers) = 224 ERA+ Burnett + Colon (2011 numbers) = 197 ERA+ If Kuroda and/or Garcia return to career numbers, that would offset that quite a bit more (anywhere from 201-214 for Pineda + Kuroda). Looking at the numbers a little closer, I'm not all that impressed. I don't think they made as big of an addition as it's being made out to be.

Sorry guys. I think we get one at the deadline, and (like I said in my other post) move Bard from the rotation to the bullpen so that he doesn't make a huge leap in innings in 1 year. That's generally what hurts RP turning into SP, the fatigue that sets in.

Something I didn't really think of - If we start the season with Bard in the rotation, it may very well be a situation where he is a SP for the 1st half of the season, and then we acquire someone at the deadline, and move Bard to the bullpen where we can kind of cool him down in terms of innings. So go into the season with Bard as your 5th man, see if anyone in the farm kind of breaks out and builds value, and then make a run at an established SP. You help your rotation AND your bullpen out with 1 move, Bard doesn't have to throw more than around 90 IP as a SP, and then about 30 as a RP and he's at 120 on the year rather than 150. I wouldn't mind that route at all.

Having said that, I think we need 1 more solid SP and move Aceves, or possibly Bard, back to the bullpen. Although I think Bard would make a better SP than Aceves.

I have been saying that for like 2 months! But regardless - that's exactly right. His control is completely refined, and he also has added another pitch. If he can add a splitter to his repertoire, he could be an extremely effective SP.