SoxFanForsyth

Thanks man - There was just so much discussion around an unknown number, hopefully we can have a little more realistic discussions if we know around what we have to spend.

Well if that's the case, they should have around $5.2mm to drop. If players like Ryan Sweeney and Nick Punto keep us from going after a guy like Roy Oswalt, I'm going to be furious. I still think the play is to dish Youkilis + 1 for Jair Jurrens, clear some space, and sign Oswalt. Let Aviles play 3B for the Sox (Aviles OPS'd .924 vs LHP last year, Youk OPS'd .987, so not a huge drop off, plus Aviles slugged .576 vs LHP, whereas Youk slugged .561 vs LHP). Rotation of Lester - Beckett - Buchholz - Jurrjens - Oswalt Ellsbury - Crawford - Pedroia - Gonzo - Ortiz - Aviles - Salty - Sweeney - Scutaro Bullpen of Bailey, Bard, Aceves, Melancon, Morales, Jenks, Albers

That's actually incorrect. The option becomes available. The club still has to exercise the option. Per Cots, the actual stipulation is:

Well, Ellsbury is projected at about $8mm. The players mentioned are between 6-7mm. Regardless, he's not going anywhere either. And I may have understated Bailey's contract, but I'm sure I overstated others. Like I said, it was a quick, rough estimate, but I think it's close enough to where we can at least have an idea as to how much we have to spend. Bailey will probably be closer to 2.5mm. I doubt, after 2 consecutive sub-50 IP seasons, he'll make it to $3.5mm, as MLBTR suggests.

Club options do not get calculated into AAV, and so the option will not affect his AAV. It's a damn shame, too. Player options are included in AAV calculation, club options are not.

Using the 40-60-80 rule, where a player receives 40% - 60% - 80% of their FA value in years 1 - 2 - 3 of arbitration, my valuation is actually almost dead on. FA value is determined by multiplying WAR * $4mm. In the past 2 seasons, Bailey has averaged 0.95 WAR. That's $3,800,000 FA value. 40% of that would be $1.5mm. So I'm off by $300k, which is nominal at best.

Bailey made $415,000 last year, and is in his 1st arbitration year, and he only threw 90 IP in the past 2 seasons combined. $1.2 is not a joke. Cherrington has a very good case to keep it around there based on his limited action.

I think that number is fairly accurate, at least within a couple million. Who knows, though. I could see how the payroll could easily top $178mm if Ellsbury, Bard, Ortiz, Aceves, or Bailey wins an arb hearing.

So, I just went through all of the players and calculated their AAV. I found 17 guaranteed salaries, and they added up to $136,800,000. So that leaves approximately $41.2mm to split up between the remaining 23 players on the 40 man roster. The players who still need salaries: Ortiz Ellsbury Sweeney Tazawa Aceves Aviles Bard McDOnald Bailey Morales (Franklin) Melancon Anderson (Lars) Bowden Exposito Kalish Lavarnway Pimental Tejada Doubront Atchison Britton Middlebrooks Lin Assuming the bolded names average $500k per player (13 players), that tallies up to $143,200,000. That now leaves $34.8mm for the remaining players. Ortiz will probably be around $14mm. Ellsbury will likely be around $8mm. Sweeney will likely get around 2mm (he was at 1.4mm last year). Aceves will get a huge bump (he was at 650k last year). Probably around $2mm. Aviles should be around $750k, Bard - Should be in the 2.3mm range. D-Mac - Around $500k. Bailey around 1.2mm. Morales and Melancon at $650k each. And, in AAV terms, that puts this team at $175,328,631. To stay below the LT threshold, that leaves them with $2,671,369 to spend. They need to move approximately $6mm to even have a shot at a guy like Oswalt. The players in the $6mm range are Pedroia, Lester, Scutaro, and Jenks. Jenks has really dicked us bad. Scutaro is moveable. Pedroia and Lester are obviously going nowhere. What really, really sucks is that between DiceK, Lackey, and Jenks, that's an AAV of $31,660,000 on the DL. With that money, this team could have made a couple big moves.

Nobody knows right now. They've got: Aceves Aviles Bard D-Mac Bailey Ellsbury Sweeney All working out deals under arbitration. There could be millions of dollars in discrepancies in what the Sox expect to pay and what they actually pay. This could free up some money, and it could also tie up more money than they want. Hopefully it goes 1 of 2 ways. Either it frees up enough money so that they can afford Oswalt, or it puts them over the cap and they can stop trying to stay under it and blow the cap and sign a good SP.

Wonder who he's talking about. Gotta think they could move Scutaro, whos 3/18.5mm contract frees up $6mm. Then they could make Aviles the starting SS. Aviles is a more than capable SS. He hit .314/.355/.436 for the Sox last season in 38 games. I'd take him at SS and if it cleared room for someone like Oswalt.

I am incredibly curious to see how he can be as a SP, and if we're ever going to give him a shot as a SP, this is the year to do it. I'm excited about the prospect of him starting.

Even 3.83 is lower than I think it will be. I'd say it will be, at best, around a 3.90-3.95. So I'll go ahead and place a sig wager with you that the Yankees team SP ERA will not be lower than 3.95 in 2012. Do we have a wager? And what are the stipulations?

You're not getting what I'm saying, though. If you compare, straight up, Kuroda's 2012 season vs Burnett's 2011 season, I think it will be an improvement. But, I think that Garcia will regress significantly in 2012 and offset that improvement. And I also think that Pineda will struggle to pitch better than Colon's 2011 numbers. So, as a rotation, I think their numbers will be consistent with last year. At most, about a 5% decrease in ERA. So, they had a team 4.03 ERA from their SP. I'd put a wager that the Yankees team SP ERA will not be lower than a 3.85 ERA in 2012.

Not a "wash at best case scenario". It's likely going to be a wash. I'm not sure you understand what "best case" and "worst case" scenarios are. Best case, Pineda comes in and matures and is instantly effective, Kuroda throws consistent with 2011 and the new park and new lineups have no impact on him, and Garcia continues to have a near-80% strand rate and a 22% LD rate but keeps his ERA around 3.60. Worst case, Pineda gets hammered by the smaller park (at the end of last year, his HR/9 skyrocketed, and he was playing in Safeco), Kuroda gets killed by the new, patient AL teams and the bandboxes that are in the AL East, and Garcia regresses to his FIP.

Having said that - Pineda is a massive improvement for the future of the organization and is a great acquisition. I just don't think the Yankees are going to see immediate dividends from the trade. 2012 should be a wash with 2011, but after that, Pineda should begin to progress a little more and learn the game, and ultimately make a big contribution.

Yup. ERA is a perfect representation. Well, I mean, if you want to completely disregard park factors, NL vs AL, and lineups. And then if you want to assume that Garcia is going to replicate his career year. What's more likely - Garcia and Kuroda replicate career years and combine for a 243 ERA+, or that they replicate career norms and combine for a 220 ERA+? If Pineda replicates his 2011 numbers and posts around a 105 ERA+, and Kuroda throws to career norms and has about a 115 ERA+, and Garcia throws to his career norm of about a 109 ERA+, 2012 will essentially be a wash with 2011.

Yeah. How could they ever replace the incredible production that we had in RF last year, you know, the year that we had the best offense in baseball? Oh, wait. Last year our RF hit .233/.299/.353. And lets be real here. Crawford is not going to have another .255/.694 OPS season next year. He'll almost certainly return to a .295-.305 hitter with an OPS around .800-.850.