Not sure if anyone saw it, but Alex Speier wrote an intersting artile on Scutaro's trade. It actually freed up $7.67mm in LT purposes.
So, using this logic, I went ahead and recalcualted Lackey's new AAV calculation, as soon as we exercise his option, as follows:
Contract: 5 Years, 82.5mm. AAV: 16.5mm
AAV 2010: 16.5mm
AAV 2011: 16.5mm
Here's where it gets trickey. If the LT is calculated at the end of the year, then Lackey will qualify for his conditional option in 2012, and the Sox can exercise it. So, assuming that, here's the remainder.
2010-2011 AAV: $33mm (from above)
Contract with option exercised: 6 years, $83mm
Remaining Contract Left: 4 Years, 50mm
AAV from 2012-2015: $12.5mm (Savings of $4mm in LT Purposes)
If the LT is calculated at the beginning of the year (which I believe it is, because that's how the Sox extended Beckett and Gonzo), then here's the calculation:
2010-2012 AAV: $49.5mm (16.5mm * 3 years)
Contract with option exercised: 6 years, $83mm
Remaining Contract Left: 3 Years, 33.5mm
AAV of New Contract: $11.167 (Savings of 5.33mm per year in LT Purposes)
So my point is this - With the AAV of Ortiz (12.6mm), Jenks (6mm), DiceK (8.67mm), Shoppach (1.375), Ross (3mm), and Lackey's reduction (5.3mm) coming off the books after the 2012 season, that's about $37mm coming off the books. So why are we trying to stay under the LT threshold this year when we have so much coming off next year??
Either way, a 1 year deal for Oswalt is not going to hurt the club. Chances are we're already over in 2012 anyway.