SoxFanForsyth

No argument against hard stats, aka fluky increases in BABIP, HR/FB, and Strand Rate.

I didn't say they started this offseason as a .500 team. I said last season, they underperformed and got hurt enough that, in terms of talent, they were closer to a .500 team than a 69 win team. As of right now, especially with the bullpen being much stronger now, this team is an 85-88 win team.

Those stats defy a fluke?!? He had a .341 BABIP at home. A 62.5% strand rate. A 1.26 HR/9 last year, 15.5% HR/FB. For his career at home: .311 BABIP, 74.5% strand rate, 0.86 HR/9, 10.4% HR/FB. So his BABIP went up by almost 10%, 16% decrease in Strand Rate, and a 50% increase in HR/9 and HR/FB. This defines fluke. Again. Please do just a hair of analysis other than Murphy's Law.

Farrell already talked about how Lester was opening up his front leg too early and it flattened out his cutter and left his fastball over the plate. It's more than just a Fenway/Away split. And having Farrell will make a big difference. Some of his problems were mental, but there were also mechanical problems. I'd like to see his baBIP at home since his K:BB ratio was better at home.

Say what you want about the Sox last year, but the reason they were 60-69 when the trade went down was because the majority of the core players were either hurt or playing well below their career norms. Lester is much much better than he was last year. He posts a sub 3.5 era for 4 years straight, then has a bad year and all of a sudden he's a terrible, pitcher who has peaked. Buchholz doesn't throw for 10 months, goes in and allows more than 1/3 of his total ER in his first 6 starts before he's back to being himself. Ellsbury comes off an MVP season and goes down in the 7th game of the year and isn't right all year. Pedroia is battling thumb issues the entire first half of the season. Ortiz is on pace for a 35 HR season and he goes down in mid July with 23 HR. Middlebrooks goes down in August with a season that, any other year, has him in ROY considerations. Talent wise, yes, they were much much better than a 69 win team. And all of the guys listed are coming back. Expecting them to perform to their career norms is completely reasonable. Last year was a complete aberration for nearly every one of the players mentioned above, compounded by a horrifying manager who had no clue what he was doing. So no. It's not 'rose colored hogwash'. Try to perform just the smallest bit of analysis other than Murphy's Law for the Red Sox.

I don't know what Jackso is talking about. This is the weakest I've seen the East in ages

If there was ever a year to be where we are, it's this year. I understand that you are what your record says you are, but last year the Sox were more of a .500 team than a 69 win team. Severe underperformance and injuries to key players destroyed the season. I think next season the Sox are around an 85-88 win team, and could flux down to 80 wins or up to 92-94 wins with a big year from Doubront, or from some surprise performances from Lackey and Dempster. Having said all that, I think 90-92 wins will take the East. And I think every team will be in the mix outside of the Orioles.

Not to mention the language in Lackeys contract gave them an extra year at league min salary. It's not a negotiating tool. It's a way to protect the team from lost seasons. Perhaps the Yankees should have done this on ARod's contract.

Drew has a career .762 OPS. That's not a low .700's OPS. And Aviles's 4.4 WAR season was fueled by an insane .357 BABIP. Drew's 5.1 WAR season came with a sustainable .321 BABIP. Not to mention Drew crushes Aviles in wRC+ and wOBA. Until he got hurt, Stephen Drew was a top 3 SS in terms of OPS, only behind HanRam and Tulo.

My deepest apologies. How you been man? Been a while. Busy?

Stephen Drew walks more than twice as much as Aviles. Stephen Drew can OBP over .300 even when he has a down year, and hits .223. Aviles hit .250 and had an OBP of .282. Aviles was awful last year. Especially as the games started piling up. He's good for about 75-80 games. Then fatigue catches up to him. From game 81-136 last year, Aviles hit .230/.281/.328. That's a .609 OPS. Iglesias can give us a .609 OPS. A bump of nearly 50 points in OPS is certainly not something to turn your nose at. The thing is - Stephen Drew has put up these numbers with a broken ankle. Aviles put up his numbers fully healthy, while getting half his AB's at an extremely RH friendly park.

Done. You're significantly underestimating Lester and Buchholz, and the impact that Farrell will have on them.

Nicely done. Completely ignore any aging and injury related problems. Everyone will bounce back. Jeter's broken ankle won't be a problem (See: Stephen Drew). Pettitte is going to be in his 40's. Counting on more than 20 starts from him is ignorant. He hasn't made 22 starts since 2009. It's going to be 2013. Youkilis has been horrid since July, 2011. If the Sox had Youkilis, and we were counting on him, you'd shoot holes through the theory. Gardner will be a nice addition, but Ichiro is not an everyday player anymore (.670 OPS over the past 2 seasons) I don't care if he's at YS or not, he's going to be average, at best. Counting on more is ridiculous. Mo just completely blew out his knee. He's going to be 43 years old next year. He's a massive, massive question mark. CC - Kuroda should be great, but you can't just ignore CC's surgery. Hughes is as volatile as they come. I have already addressed Pettitte. Phelps likely isn't going to strand 82.5% again and have a .258 BABIP. His 4.32 FIP is much more indicative of what you can expect from him than his 3.34 ERA. The Yankees have as many or more question marks than anyone in the East. Sorry to burst your bubble, but this is not the year for the Yanks. And I'll be willing to put a sig bet on the fact that the Sox end the year ahead of the Yanks.

I'm sorry, sir, but if you don't like picking favorites, you are in the completely wrong thread.

Right now it's gotta be the Jays. But there is really no clear disparity between any of the teams. Jackso, that's a ridiculous comment. Pettite, Mo, Jeter, ARod, Tex, all coming off injury riddled seasons. CC had elbow surgery. No Swisher this year, you're counting on a 39 year old RF. No Soriano to back up if Mo goes down again. You're putting a band aid on a band aid with an injury ridden Youkilis to take over for ARod. The Yankees are a 3rd place team right now.

It was 1 injury that started at the end of 2011 and lagged into 2012. He didn't play his first game in 2012 until June 27th. It's not like he got hurt, played in September of 2011, then started 2012 in April, got hurt again, etc like you make it sound.

Um. He had 1 traumatic injury. He's not a chronic injury guy like you make it seem.

I think one of their hopes is that Brentz will be ready to be the 2013 Middlebrooks by around June. Also, I think Lavarnway is a much better hitter than he showed last year. Lets not forget, the guy hit 32 HR in 2011. He can be an impact bat as well. Plus, you've got Bradley Jr who could be w the team in July if need be, so they certainly have options and impact bats I think the lineup looks a bit weak right now because of the unknowns. But if Lavs comes up and hits like he can, Middlebrooks continues his success, Ells and Pedey play to their capabilities, Napoli can be a. 1.000 OPS guy when playing so many games at Fenway, this team can be a crazy good team offensively. As for the pitchers, ill be pissed if Salty is still on this team when camp breaks. We cannot afford to have him behind the plate anymore.

Uehara will be in the pen. Bard will start in the bullpen too, in my opinion. Jerry Sands will be on the team over Nava, since he can play OF and 1B, and he crushes LHP. Also, since we have no pure 3 hitter, I like a top 6 of Ellsbury - Victorino - Pedroia - Ortiz - Napoli - WMB

If Lester gives a 3.32 era, we will be in good shape. That's only a drop of 1.5, not 2, and I'm sure there have been plenty of pitchers who have done that. In fact, you don't have to look far at all. Dempster went from a 4.8 to a 3.38 from 2011 to 2012. Beckett had a massive history of fluctuations. Buchholz went from a 4.3 to a 2.3 from 2009 to 2010. And let's not forget, Lester, Buch, and Lackey all had solid to fantastic years in 2010, when Farrell was last here. And for Buch, after that rusty start last year, he posted a 3.6 era in his final 23 starts.

Swisher is a bad defender. He would get smoked in RF but could do ok in LF. http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=7268593&c_id=mlb

I am content letting this thing play out while the prospects mature a bit, then go into 2014 guns blazing with Bradley, Barnes, Webster, De La Rosa, and Bogaerts. Dempster didn't help this rotation at all IMO. Having said that, I do have confidence that Lester and Buchholz can return to their 2011 form (3.3-3.5 ERA pitchers), especially now that Farrell is back and will be able to filter his ideas through Nieves and get them back on track. If the offense can stay healthy, which they should be able to given the nature of the injuries last year were traumatic and not chronic, then this is still one of the top offenses in the game. The bullpen looks pretty solid, but largely depends on some bounce back guys. If Bard and Aceves get their act together, then we are in a good spot, with Uehara, Tazawa, Miller, Breslow, and Bailey all set. In terms of talent, this team is as good as any team in the AL East. It's just a question of playing to their true talent levels.

Take out Lester's 4/17 game (2 IP, 7 ER), 5/25 game (4 IP, 7 ER), 7/17 game (4 IP, 6 ER), and of course 6/22 game (4 IP, 11 ER) and you've taken out 14 IP, 31 ER. That leaves him with 191.1 IP, 79 ER. And that gives him a 3.72 ERA on the season. I see what you're saying, but his era jumped to a 5.09 in the move to the AL. I just hate the move.

If the Sox sign Dempster, I'll lose my s***. I would lose my s*** if they gave him a 1 year deal. I'm hearing reports a week ago he turned down a 2 year deal. Now they're bearing down on a deal, which, to me means its going to be around a 3 year deal. What in the flying hell is Cherrington thinking here?!??? He's going to get his freaking tits lit on fire in the AL East. We're talking a 6+ ERA. This is absolutely disgusting. Any interest at all in this guy shows complete incompetence from the FO, not overall, but in this deal. This guy has less than zero value to the Sox. Ugh. Makes me sick. I would rather have De La Rosa or Morales start 100 times out of 100 opportunities over Dempster, and its not close.

Swisher can play RF, LF, or 1B. Napoli can play C or 1B. Victorino can play any OF position. Swisher certainly fits the mold as the LH hitting 1B with versatility. For the most part, you're going to see Swish - Ells - Vic as the OF, but if you want to sit Lavarnway/Ross for a game (DH followed by a day game for instance), you can throw Gomes in LF, Swish at 1B, Nap behind the dish. There is a ton of roster flexibility if the Sox sign Swisher.