SoxFanForsyth

Well hello there Varitek.

Didn't address the offensive reliance on the HR ball at all. You took out a guy in Swisher, who put up a .360+ OBP and 25+ HR (OBP creating less reliance on the HR ball) and replaced him with an 8-10 HR, .335 OBP guy. Not sure how that translates to a better offense. Gardner will help the offense because he produces a solid OBP, but you're still getting very little offensive production from the OF. Again. You're counting on a 41 year old who hasn't thrown more than 129 IP since 2009 to provide you with 180-200 IP. If the Sox were doing that, oh the humanity. As much as you want to discredit Martin, he was very helpful to the Yankees offense because of his power, which they rely on. When they go through spurts where they're not getting that HR production (See: 2012 PS), they're not a very good team and must put a ton of reliance on their rotation. Depend all you want on Hughes. He still has yet to put up a sub-4.20 ERA season over more than 90 innings. It's crazy for our pitchers to return to their career norms, but your pitchers will somehow throw to career years. Dismissing Jeter's ankle and CC's elbow is very Jackso'ish. Last year Crawford looked like he was going to be ready by Opening Day too. How'd that turn out. Aged players run into issues when recovering from injuries. That includes Jeter. Not to mention that you haven't even seen him. Saying he's "returned to baseball activities" doesn't mean he's not going to have extremely limited range next year. Stephen Drew returned to baseball activities too. He actually played games. And he was not even close to the same player. It takes a long time to recover from a broken ankle as a middle infielder. And your bullpen can't hold the Sox bullpen's jock strap. Joba posted a 4.35 ERA last year, but somehow he's back to a sub 3.00 ERA. Boone Logan (3.74 ERA last year, career high innings_ isn't even as good as Andrew Miller, who is basically our 3rd lefty. Aardsma is coming off of TJS and has a 4.22 career ERA. Robertson is a solid arm, and Rivera is obviously too but he's coming off of a major, major injury and he's 42 years old. Outside of that, I don't even know who the other arm is. The Sox have Uehara, Hanrahan, Tazawa, Bailey, Bard, Aceves, Morales, Miller, Breslow, and have Alex Wilson waiting in AAA as another power arm, not to mention the potential of De La Rosa if he's needed. To say they'll be able to match? That's a joke. Plain and simple, the only edge the Yanks have on the Sox is CC and Kuroda. I'm noticing a nice trend here, though. The Yankees pitchers are all going to come back, throw to career best seasons, all be healthy and throw a career high in innings. The Yankees hitters are all going to be fully recovered from injuries (Gardner, Youkilis, Jeter) and perform to career norms. The Red Sox pitchers are all the 2012 version of themselves, outside of Lackey who is the 2011 version. The bullpen will likely implode because of the complete and utter reliance on them (see starting pitchers assumption above). The offense is solid, but they certainly aren't allowed to be any better than the Yankees despite being marginally more talented and certainly much more balanced.

I am one of the apparent few who rely more heavily on career stats than 1-year aberrations and injury filled seasons. This team went 9-27 in September/October last year because they put out the most putrid team that I've seen in my life. They were without Middlebrooks for nearly the entire 2nd half. They were without Ortiz for the entire 2nd half. They were without Ellsbury for the entire 1st half and Pedroia played with a busted thumb the entire 1st half. Lester posted a career high ERA, Buchholz set an MLB record in allowing 5 runs in 6 straight starts, and we received 30 starts from Cook (5.65 ERA), Stewart (ERA north of 20), and DiceK (ERA north of 8.50). For the Red Sox to be a bad team again, these are all items that would need to repeat themselves. Plain and simple, it's extremely unlikely for the Sox to have to go through such an injury ridden and underperforming season as last year. They set an MLB record for days on the DL. It's not blind optimism. It's counting on players to return to their level of normalcy rather than playing to career worst years. It's waiting for players to get hurt before you project a season with them injured.

How are the Yankees better outside of CC and Kuroda? You're counting on Pettitte to give you 30+ starts when he hasn't started more than 21 since 2008. You're counting on a 42 year old closer to recover fully from a torn up knee. You lost 70 IP of 2.35 ERA baseball in Soriano. ARod may not play a single game in 2012. Youkilis is pitiful away from Fenway, he's a .730 OPS hitter now and his defense is below average. Jeter has a broken ankle, why don't you ask Stephen Drew how those fair. Cano is still a beast, that's fine, but he's going to see very little in the zone now with nobody behind him that you need to respect. Catching is a monster question mark. For a team whose reliance on the long ball was extreme last year, losing Swisher and Martin (47 HR) hurts the offense very badly, and the Yanks have done nothing to 1. replace that HR production or 2. become less reliant on the long ball. So yes. The Sox have a better team than the Yanks right now. I'll give the Angels, Tigers, and Jays as teams that, right now, look better. We'll see how the Jays mesh, but on paper they're certainly more talented. Outside of that, like I said, a lot of teams are lumped together. The Yanks, Sox, A's, Rays, and ChiSox are all in that group to varying degrees. But to say with any certainty that there are 5 teams better than the Sox? No way.

He's not an improvement over last year because he's still here. This is ridiculous. I'm done with this argument. You don't think they're going to get better, I do. That's all there is to it. Except stats agree with me.

True, but if you looked at the stadium at all last year, it was very much empty in a lot of games.

I keep going back to this. I just can't think of 5 AL teams that are better than the Sox. And it's not homerism. I've got the Angels and Tigers as locks. I don't think the Yankees are better. They have a better rotation, but the pen is not as good, nor is the offense. The Jays are better. So that's 3 teams. I don't know. I think it's going to be a very interesting season. Certainly the Sox are right up there with any WC contending team, but I really just don't see who is better than the Sox.

They're all Giants fans now. If there was one thing BobbyV was good at, it was ridding this team of the fluff. People who jumped on board after 04 are long gone. And were long gone after April or May of last year.

Most of them are gone after last season, though.

To be fair though, I'm not expecting ace innings from him. I'm expecting league average innings. If he gives us around a 4.2 era in his spot starts, I'll be happy. Again, I'm not saying he's going to be able to fill in for Lester or Buch, but i think that's around what we can expect for Dempster, Lackey, and Doubront. And that's why I think he can make any injuries to the bottom 3 seem relatively seamless in transition

TJS during 2011 season. Made a relief appearance in 2012 for the Dodgers before being part of the trade. Fully healthy now, early reports are that he's at full strength.

I agree. If we lose someone for the entire year, were in trouble. But if Morales makes 15-18 spot starts, we are in good shape. And yes, DLR did have success in a bigger park, but he also was only 22. And he has had success at every level he's reached, including the bigs. Other than just blind pessimism, there's no reason to expect that he would be ineffective in the AL East. His FIP and xFIP as a SP (4.07, 3.64 respectively) both indicate that his peripherals translate to success, regardless of location. .310 BABIP as a SP. it's not like he was getting lucky. I just don't see any reason that you would can say with any statistical evidence that he would not have success if given the chance.

Because Morales threw 76 innings last year which was a career high. Before that his highest was 46. Morales would be good for around 115-120 innings. He serves better as the 6 man than the 5 man this year.

I just think they are all right around league average pitchers. I mean, Morales looked very strong in his starts last year outside of the Yankees starts. But even with those starts, he still posted a 4.14 era in 9 starts. If we get that out of either Lackey or Dempster, I'd be happy. I think they will both be 4.2-4.4 era guys. De La Rosa has a 3.96 era in the MLB over 61 innings (3.88 era as a SP over 10 starts). Again, I'm not just pulling numbers from a hat and hoping. I'm looking at past results.

I just think, for Lester and Buch, too much emphasis is being put on last year, and not enough is being put on the years before that. I also think Farrell knows more about pitching in his big toe than McClure or Niemman will ever know. Not to mention his history with Lester, Buch, and Doubront. I understand he's not the pitching coach, but I also understand that it's his job to get this team to win games, and if that means giving Lester and Buch consistent insight, I have no doubt he will do that.

I'm not saying they are going to be just fine if they lose a Lester or a Buchholz. But if they lose a Dempster, Lackey, or Doubront and replace them with a Morales, Aceves, or De La Rosa, its almost a wash.

Hoe am I wearing rose colored glasses?? I've been saying this entire time that they are the 7th or 8th in SP. The only time I even mentioned top 5 was when I said everything had to break just exactly right. So you essentially agree with me and say that thy are middle of the road, yet I'm wearing rose colored glasses??

The problem with this is that you're making the insinuation that 2012 was a normal year for our SP staff, when we had guys throwing to career worst ERA's. There is a reason it's called a career of work, and why players trend toward their career norms.

Yeah. That's what we said. You're reading comprehension or maturity is at an all time low for this board.

I didn't lump him in because he was one of the better pitchers we had last year and he's not going to be replaced. Why the hell would I lump him in?? That's a dumb statement. Yes. A 98-100 mph change and an 80 change according to past pitching coaches equals a closer. All he has to do is spin a slider (which, by the way, his slider is rated as a better than average pitch by fangraphs) and he's a solid starter. He's got 65 innings of big league experience and posted a solid era and FIP. Literally the only starter in the Sox rotation that we "can't count on" is Lackey. Again, look at the xFIP from the Sox SP last year. 4.28 xFIP, 9th in the AL. And the rotation has certainly improved both from a depth and underperformance standpoint. It's not homerism. It's statistics.

Oh. Wow. Funny. Thought I said depth, not rotation. That was just a dumb response.

Morales, Aceves, De La Rosa, Webster, Britton, Hernandez, Wright. Please, do tell me who has better depth than that? Nice contribution to the thread, by the way.

Considering he was throwing with a torn UCL in his elbow during 2011, I think he'll certainly be able to outperform a 6.50 ERA. Not to mention that if he struggles, they'll just DL him and let Morales start, or De La Rosa, or Aceves, who all can outperform that fodder. Plain and simple, the 2012 Red Sox SP pitched well below their talent level and also had a bunch of talentless pitchers starting for them for 20% of the season. They'll be a middle of the pack team in terms of SP. Not to mention they have some of the better SP depth in the AL. Certainly better than the Yankees SP depth.

Considering the Red Sox xFIP last year was 4.28, 9th in the AL, and they improved significantly by removing 30 starts by Stewart, Cook, and DiceK, yes, I believe their SP ERA will bump up by about a run. It's not homerism when you look at a stat that is better at projecting future performance than ERA to, wait for it.....project future performance. Crazy, isn't it? Not only that, but the main guys on the team (i.e. Lester, Buchholz) pitched to their career worst ERA's by over a full run in Lester's case. I'm actually doing analysis. You're looking at last year's ERA, which is a poor predictor of future performance.

To be clear, here are some of the numbers from last year: Lester: 33 GS, 4.82 ERA Beckett: 21 GS, 5.23 ERA Cook: 18 GS, 5.65 ERA Matsuzaka: 11 GS, 8.28 ERA Zach Stewart: 2 GS, 22.24 ERA Bard: 10 GS, 5.30 ERA So yes. I think we will improve over those 95 games started pretty drastically. Considering Dempster's FIP in his AL Starts was 4.07 and his xFIP was 3.85, I'd say it's a pretty safe bet to say his 30-33 GS will give around 1 run better in ERA than Beckett. I'd say Lester isn't going to throw to a career worst ERA again, either. Considering his xFIP was a full run better than his ERA, again, I'd say it's a safe bet to say he's going to be better than he was. Aaron Cook (5.65 ERA) will be replaced by starts from Morales (4.10 ERA as a SP last year). I'd say that should give a boost. To assume that the Sox SP staff will again be at 5.20 is just lazy. Have a look at some of the guys xFIP's, which are much better indications of future performance than ERA. You're just wrong here. It's not homerism when it's backed by stats.