SoxFanForsyth

Dude. What are you talking about? I said they were 7th or 8th in the AL alone. That's a middle of the pack rotation. I said if everything broke right, cited examples, then they would be a top 5. But if everything goes as expected, they are a middle of the pack rotation. Please, read my posts before you try to jump on me for something. It makes you look silly. The Rays, Yanks, Tigers, Jays, and A's all have better rotations. Then the ChiSox, Red Sox, Angels, and Rangers are all grouped in the average category. Then the Mariners, Orioles, Astros, Royals, Guardians, Mariners, and Twins are all bad. So, I put the Red Sox right in the middle in the middle of the "middle" group. Maybe a bit more analysis on your part would make your posts bearable.

Aceves was the closer last year, so he wasn't an option to start. Morales did make spot starts, but only after Aaron Hill and DiceK were both used. And when Morales dd start, he threw to a 4.14 ERA, which was significantly better than league average in the AL (4.37 ERA). The problem was that he prepped to be a reliever all offseason, and so he couldn't carry a huge load of innings. Prior to 2012, Morales had capped at 46.1 IP as his most innings in any major league season. Last year, he bumped that up to 76.1 IP (65% bump). That's a huge bump in innings. That said, he could hit the 100-105 IP mark this year and be fine because 1. he increased his workload last year and 2. he's coming into the season prepping to be a starter. The problem with your argument is that you're arguing Cook's 2.4 ERA in AAA vs Wright/Hernandez's ERA's in the minor leagues. First off, Aaron Cook had a history of bad success at the major league level. To assume that any pitcher who posts a 2.4 ERA in AAA is going to suck at the MLB level just because Cook sucked is absolutely ridiculous. Are Wright and Hernandez capable of giving you 6 league average innings in spot starts? Absolutely they are. Neither you nor I have seen any indication that they would not have relative success in those spot starting roles. And that's all you can ask for from your #10 and #11 men.

And who gets knocked out of the bullpen? What happens when Bard is back to normal? You going to keep Taz in AAA? There's no room for 2 'mop up' or multi inning relievers in this bullpen.

Well, I think the Sox could make Aceves the swing man in the bullpen and assign Morales to AAA. I'm not sure he can just 'not accept' that role. I don't think either od them guaranteed to be on the 25 man roster, especially since they are both just going into their 2nd year of arbitration.

It's just very nitpicky and all you need to do is look up their stats to see that they are prospects. And if you don't think that Morales, Aceves, De La Rosa, And Webster are better options for depth than Aaron Cook and Daisuke Matauzaka, then we can just stop our discussions now. Morales should be going into the season ready to start, not relieve, so that he doesn't run into innings limits like he did this past season. And with the depth in the bullpen, we can spare Aceves and Morales as starters in AAA. I don't know what merits Hernandez and Wright not being prospects, considering Hernandez is 24 and in AAA after 2 years in the minors and a career 3.23 era in the minors, and Wright is a recently transitioned knuckleballer who really started using it in late 2010, so the fact that he is 27 is meaningless as he made a transition, and he's had very good success with it.

Well Chris Hernandez posted a 3.59 ERA over 8 starts in AAA last year, and a 3.26 era over 25 starts between AA and AAA. As your 10th SP (behind Morales, De La Rosa, Aceves, and Webster), I'm sorry, but you're not going to get Cliff Lee. He is certainly capable of coming up and giving innings in the event that each one of your SP and 4 of your depth options get hurt. A bit over zealous on the criticism aren't we? And Wright is a recently turned knuckleballer who posted a 2.54 ERA between AA and AAA last year, with a 3.15 ERA on 4 Pawtucket starts. To say he's not an option for the Sox in the 11th slot in their depth is, again, ridiculous. Who do you think the best team is in the MLB? And who is their 10th and 11th option? This is nitpicking at its finest, and not even good nitpicking as both of these players have had success in the upper levels of the minor leagues, which could translate to back of the rotation starters.

I agree with you, and I think we're on the same page. I am just a bit more convinced about it than you, which is fine, I'm probably a bit overly optimistic.

No, but finding his arm slot is a huge, huge step forward. That's what allows him to regain both command and velocity. The fact that he's found that alone makes him a more than 50/50 shot at coming back and being the Daniel Bard we know.

Lackey has had 1.5 years to recover, he's been throwing for a while now. In terms of recovery from TJS, he's could start now. And Taz to the minors just because he has options is not going to happen. Not the way he pitched last year, no chance. He posted a 1.43 era and a 9.2 k:bb ratio. He's one of the best arms in the bullpen.

I wasn't either until I read Farrell's comments. Now I'm pretty certain that he will.

So I'm assuming you're going with an 8 man pen of Hanrahan, Bailey, Bard, Aceves, Taz, Uehara, Breslow, Miller?

I think I know where we are getting crossed up. Season starts tomorrow, what's your bullpen look like? Mine has Miller rather than Morales in it, Bard rather than Aceves, and both Aceves and Morales starting in AAA waiting on Lackey to go down or Dempster to be ineffective.

I just don't think you're rushing them up. I mean, Morales started 9 games last year, De La Rosa started 10 games in 2011, Aceves certainly wouldn't be rushed to make some spot starts, and that gets you through 8 starters right there. The hope would be that by the time all 8 of those starters had been used and you needed a 9th, it would be well deep enough into the season that your 9th arm (Webster, Wright, or Hernandez) would have 20 or so starts under their belt and you wouldn't be rushing them. That's my logic behind it at least.

Haha. That's my job, right? This board is filled with pessimism from the last 3 years, and rightfully so, but its not as bad as it seems. They should compete this year certainly.

They have plenty of SP depth. They have Morales, De La Rosa, Aceves, Webster, Wright, and Hernandez, among others. I think they have more SP depth this year than I can remember in years past. Not to mention a lot of those names could probably outperform some of the guys who are already on the staff right now. As for the LH bat, I agree. I'd like to see another LH bat. But to be fair, they could do worse than having Nava, a guy who posted a .383 OBP, .354. WOBA, and a 119 wRC+ vs RHP last year. Don't get me wrong, I certainly think they need to go after a guy who can mash RHP and split time with Gomes. But at the same time, I'm just not sure what's out there. Would it be so bad to see how Bradley starts out, and see if he's ready? Or see how we'll Brentz hits vs RHP? I wish there were more sites that showed minor league splits because I don't know of any. Either way, while I would like to see another LH outfielder, I certainly don't think it's going to be the separation between a PS team and a non PS team.

Looking at this season, I think the Sox are in a good position to make a run at a 90 win season and will almost certainly be in position to make a run at a WC berth in late September. Having a look at the three major facets of the game, they appear to be in decent to good shape. SP - In the AL, very middle of the road. If things break right (Lester and Buch return to form, Doubie takes a big step forward, Dempster throws to a high 3ERA, and Lackey repeats 2010), then this is certainly a top 5 rotation in the AL. But if things go like they probably will (Lester and Buch mid 3 ERA, Doubront and Dempster low to mid 4s, Lackey 4.5-4.8), then this team has maybe the 7th or 8th best SP in the AL. Bullpen - lights out. Best in the AL, and its really not close. And this isn't even assuming that Bard comes back and regains form. Hanrahan, Bailey, Taz, Uehara, Breslow, Miller, Morales, Aceves, Bard, Alex Wilson all make an insanely talented and deep bullpen. #1 bullpen in the AL, capable of posting a sub 3.00 combined ERA. Offense - top 5. I see the Angels, Tigers and Jays as leading the pack. Then who? The Sox and Yanks are 4/5. The Rangers losing Nap and Hamilton lost a TON of offensive firepower. They still have Beltre and Cruz, but outside of them, there's a lot left to be desired. I think the Sox have a better lineup than the Yankees too, given Jeters surgery, losing Swisher and replacing him with an aging Ichiro, ARod going down, Youkilis is just awful anymore, especially outside of Fenway Park, no valid Catcher, and Granderson, while he hits a lot of HR, is a lot like Salty in that its pretty empty power. So the Sox are around 7-8 for SP, 1 for BP, and 4 for Offense. Does that add up to a top 5 team? I certainly think so. Which teams are better than the Sox this year? Jays, Angels, Tigers, and who else? After you get by those 3, it's just a big pile of teams that are all on the same level.

Ohhhhh my bad!! My apologies.

Actually Victorino mashes LHP, it's RHP that he struggles against.

But the Sox have two guys Morales and De La Rosa who can outperform Lackey and Dempster, and likely will when they get the chance.

If you think that the Sox aren't going to manage his starts to be against softer hitting lineups, you're ridiculous. And Dempster can certainly throw to a 4.40-4.50 ERA, which is a major boost over Beckett. Just to recap from last year, here are some of the starts posted: Beckett: 21 Starts, 5.23 ERA. Cook: 18 Starts, 5.65 ERA Matsuzaka: 11 Starts, 8.28 ERA That's 50 starts right there that, on average, were absolutely atrocious. Even if our top 5 go down or even underperform, we have Morales, De La Rosa, Aceves, Hernandez, etc all ready to step in. Rather than having players who are trying to rediscover their careers, we have players who are working on building their careers. That's a huge difference and a big advantage over last year.

Um. Beckett had a 5.23 ERA when he was traded.

Right, until players are hurt, I assume health.

Yeah. That was with AdGon posting a career worst OPS. That was with Pedroia posting a sub-.800 OPS, career worst. That was with Ellsbury playing hurt and posting terrible numbers. That was with Middlebrooks and Ortiz missing over 1/2 of the season. That was with 20% of the year playing with a worse team than we had in Pawtucket. That was with Aaron Cook and DiceK getting way too many starts. Now we have De La Rosa, Wright, Aceves, Morales, and Hernandez as SP depth. And to project either Lester or Buchholz to have career worst years again is blind homerism at its finest. It's called a career of work for a reason. That was with Padilla being our stud out of the pen. Sorry man. Your post is just ignorant.

This is a major blanket comment that 1. Insinuates that we had no injures last year (Ortiz, Middlebrooks, Ellsbury, Pedroia), 2. Includes the post-August-trade record, and 3. Assumes that none of our players who had below average to horrid seasons (Ellsbury, Pedroia, Lester, Buchholz, Bard, Gonzo replaced by Napoli) will return to their career norms and become high level players again. If you just take out that s*** storm we fielded from August 25th onwhen the Sox went 9-27 to end the season, and replace it with even .500 baseball, the Sox would have been 9 wins better (78 wins). Tack on the 5-6 wins from a lights out bullpen, now you're at 84 wins. And you shohld expect better health and the rebound from the complete and utter underperformance of former MVP caliber and Cy Young candidate players to get you the extra 8-10 wins you need.

I disagree strongly about them not being a PS team, especially with the bullpen they have put together. Hanrahan, Bailey, Bard, Uehara, Tazawa, Aceves, Breslow, Miller, and Morales will keep the exposure to any deficiencies in SP extremely limited while providing absolutely lights out pitching for 2-3 innings/game. And the Sox offense is still a top 4-5 offense in the AL, better than the Yankees as we stand.