SoxFanForsyth
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Red Sox 2012/2013 Offseason Thread
SoxFanForsyth replied to SoxFanForsyth's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Like who? I'm not being a smart ass, I just don't know who else is available -
Red Sox 2012/2013 Offseason Thread
SoxFanForsyth replied to SoxFanForsyth's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Well, to be fair though, who do you want to go get as a #6 man? Because as a FA, nobody like Lohse is going to sign to be starting in AAA. You could put Doubront in AAA, but that would hamper his development. They're just in a bad spot, really, because of Lackey. If they had a slot open for one more, then we would be able to upgrade our rotation. That's why I thought the Sox would unload Doubront this offseason so they could make an acquisition via trade to really upgrade. I still disagree with you regarding the SP depth. I think they have very good SP depth right now. They just need a better #3. They have 2 #2's followed by 3 #4/5's. -
Red Sox 2012/2013 Offseason Thread
SoxFanForsyth replied to SoxFanForsyth's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
I would love to get another SP but I am convinced that the FO has the 5 SP set right now, so they're not going to go out and get a Lohse or someone because there is nobody he would replace. I think he's an upgrade over Doubront and Lackey, and maybe even Dempster myself, but I don't think they'll try to get him. -
And who was the pitching coach in 2010? And who left after 2010? I'm just saying. I know he's not going to come in and turn this team into a 100+ win team, but at the same time, his leaving clearly had an effect on both Lester and Buchholz. And just for what it's worth, Lester's cutter decreased in horizontal movement by 1/2 of an inch from 2010-2011. So that's about 3 inches of lost movement from 2010. 1/2 of an inch doesn't seem like a lot, but that's the difference between a swinging strike 3 and a foul tip.
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Lester's K's went down because of a mechanical flow that flattened out his cutter. His cutter had a decrease in horizontal movement of over 2.5 inches. This was largely due to the fact that his front leg was opening up (almost like a gate swinging open before striding toward the plate rather than striding forward with the front leg closed), which didn't allow him to get on top of the baseball and it flattened out his pitches, especially his cutter. This is something that Farrell has already identified. Now, whether or not Lester can correct the mechanical issue is one thing, but the fact that it's been identified should help him very much both with command and movement.
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Huh? I wasn't rubbing your face in it, just thought it was funny because we just had a little debate over it. He (Farrell) mentioned it during the Hot Stove show on WEEI tonight.
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Hey MVP, you'll like this -
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Well he did post a 3.85 xFIP and a 4.06 FIP after the trade to Texas. Plus he posted a 9.1 K/9 after the trade, and only a 3.3 BB/9, so he had solid peripherals. Plus, lifelong NL'ers have had much better success going to the AL East lately. Just look at last year - Kuroda had a 3.32 ERA, Hammel had a 3.43 ERA. Maybe it's because the offensive numbers weren't as good last year in the AL East as usual, but looking forward, I certainly don't think that will change much, especially not from the Red Sox pitching perspective.
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Red Sox 2012/2013 Offseason Thread
SoxFanForsyth replied to SoxFanForsyth's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Minor league deal, no problem here. Decent depth. Last year before he was traded and went to PH duties, he was hitting .292/.367/.448. I'm not saying he's going to save the Red Sox. But he's got AL East experience, he's a LH hitter, he's got a line of .323/.395/.500 at Fenway Park for his career (177 PA). They could certainly do worse. -
Absolute cannon. He turned down a scholarship to play QB at Texas A&M to sign w the Sox ya know. He was throwing bullets.
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Hahaha. Well I refuse to take credit for Kalish's injury because......my wife was there too so it's her fault!! A couple days after that he did frisbee at the park again and that time brought Middlebrooks so I got to meet him and throw the football w him for a bit. Except my wife wasn't there this time, and he's still healthy!
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You should read this. http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php/ryan-dempster-moves-east/ Dempster FIP and xFIP after the move to Texas were 4.06 and 3.85, respectively. His ERA was inflated by a .330 BABIP and a terrible strand rate (around 66%). The article states that expecting 12-15 wins and a sub 4 era from him is reasonable, though I think that's a bit aggressive. I'd be happy with 12-13 wins and a 4.2 era.
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When things go right for the Sox this year, I'll be gloating my ass off :thumbsup:
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His average velocity was 90.79 on his fastball last year. Not sure where you're getting mid 80's. http://www.brooksbaseball.net/player_cards/player_card.php?player=133225 And going toward your other post, this pitching staff is better than last year if Lester and Buchholz return to their normal selves, which is a very reasonable expectation, especially given the disaster of a clubhouse and pitching coach drama that was 2012. That's the whole basis. I expect both Buch and Lester to be anywhere from 3.30 to 3.60 in ERA.
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No it was this year because it was subject to any substantial offseason moves being made, and I asked if Hanrahan was significant and you said no.
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Don't we already have a sig bet that is this exact bet?
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He also threw 225 innings to a 2.92 era under Farrell. And besides, that's comparing apples to oranges because Farrell already has a very strong relationship and understanding with Lester and Buch. I certainly agree about Salty, though. I would be a bit surprised if he and Bailey weren't dealt during ST.
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Fred you're exactly right. This season hinges on Lester and Buchholz. Fortunately they have a fantastic history with Farrell, and I really think not enough credit is being given to him for Lester and Buchs success. I think he's the kind of guy who inspires confidence in those pitchers because they trust that he knows what he's talking about. I know he's not the pitching coach, but I certainly think he will still have that same effect on them. Both Lester and Buchholz had their best years when Farrell was here, that's undeniable. How much he contributed to those years is subject to opinion, but I for one believe he contributes a good bit.
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Brentz is in literally the exact same situation that Middlebrooks was in last year. If Ells (or any of the starting OF) goes down, Brentz will be called up as long as he's holding his own at AAA.
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You can say that about any offense outside of the Tigers and Angels. Where are the Yankees if Cano goes down? Where are the Rangers if Beltre goes down? I mean if you're just going to project injuries, then every team is screwed. Don't forget that the Sox have Bryce Brentz waiting to be called up, and I'm sure Bogaerts could hold his own if he had to, not to mention Jackie Bradley could fill in as well. Ortiz's injury appears to be healed, per Farrell: Not to mention he's going to be a DH. He's not a football player where he's taking a huge physical toll on it. He hits 4-5 times a game. That's it. At this point, projecting injuries to every key player and saying the Sox don't have a good offense because of it is ridiculous.
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That's the thing though. Nobody is saying this is a good rotation. This is a very adequate, middle of the pack rotation. But when you pair it with a top 5 offense an the best bullpen in the AL, and strong depth, you've got a team that is certainly going to be in the mix. Like I said, give me 5 teams in the AL that you think are better than the Sox. You can't, not with any certainty.
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De La Rosa had to have surgery 2 years ago, but he was ready to return last year before being sent back down to AA and not pitching bc he was the PTBNL. He posted a 3.86 ERA as a 22 year old in 10 starts. He is a very good depth option. I don't understand it. The expectations for depth is entirely, entirely too high. People want Felix Hernandez to be our #8 starter. You don't get that. If you have guys like Morales, Aceves, and De La Rosa as your #6-8 starters, you're in damn good shape in terms of depth. The fact that any of those 3 can probably outperform our #5 starter (Lackey) is not a reflection on our depth. It's more of a reflection that that depth isn't ready to pitch 210 IP right now. The FO wants to see if they can salvage any value out of Lackey, and rightfully so. If he can give us 160 IP of 2010 numbers (4.40 ERA), I think we'd all be be very happy to supplement him with 60 innings of Morales's starts (4.15 ERA, ~10 starts).
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Yes. We had Morales. And he posted a 4.14 ERA in his starts. That's why I think he's a very solid depth option, because of his success in that role last year, and the fact that he can build on his 2012 innings (a 30% increase would get him to around 100 IP, which we agree on). Getting 100 innings of 4.15 ERA production from your #6 man is brilliant. I don't know why this would be inadequate.
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I would much, much, much rather have guys like De La Rosa, Morales, or Aceves who may not be able to throw 200 IP, but will give you 100 IP of 4.2-4.4 ERA baseball, as opposed to last year having a guy like Aaron Cook who can throw 200 IP but will give you 5.70 ERA. If someone goes down for a full season, it may have to be a collaborative effort to make up his innings, or they can look externally at the trade deadline to fill the hole if there is too much workload being put on some of the fill in starters because, at that point, the fill ins still wouldn't have bumped up to their innings limits. The fact that we have Aceves, Morales, and De La Rosa makes me much more comfortable with the back end of our rotation this year than I would be if we had Cook and DiceK back there. And it's not close. I actually feel relatively comfortable with the back 3 of our rotation right now, knowing we have some pretty talented guys waiting in the wings to take over in case of underperformance and/or injury.
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I very, very much disagree. In terms of Lackey, Dempster, and Doubront, we have 3 guys (Morales, Aceves, and De La Rosa) who can come in and provide similar (league average) production. In fact, I think this year we are much more equipped to handle the hiccups/injuries of the back half of our rotation much more than in years past. If Lester or Buchholz goes down, then yes, we're going to be hurting. But if it's one of the other 3, I see very little transition from them to Morales/Aceves/De La Rosa.
