Will617

Can the Sox afford to overpay for Crawford? Absolutely. His value as a player: Very good defense, skillset that should age well, bases stolen success chance is not the total indicator of his value on the basepaths (i.e., if you steal 100% of bases attempted, but only steal one base, you don't give much value; if you steal 80% of bases attempted, but attempted 100 times, your value increases a lot), decent amount of power His value in the market: Inflated this year, there's nothing that the Sox can do about an increase in spending overall. Furthermore, there are going to be few good OFs avaliable in the next few years. The Sox have a hole in the OF with Drew and Crawford leaving next year and unlikely to be resigned, and Ellsbury potentially leaving a few years down the road. Carlos Beltran, Jose Bautista, Corey Hart, and Ryan Ludwick are among the best options avaliable next year (not including Drew). The only two impact players avaliable next year are Fielder, Pujols, and Reyes (assuming Uggla resigns and Cano's option is picked up, and the fact that the Sox probably aren't interested in them); Pujols won't be paid to just DH, Fielder is also likely to be overpaid to just DH, and Reyes has a lot more question marks. I believe that the market for OFs will also be pretty weak two years after this one, but I can't find a list so this would be just a hunch. There is no better time for the Sox to add an OF than now, and it ensures the team is set and doesn't have to risk giving Reddick another try at an MLB job in a year (fifth time lucky?).

Pap's peripherals have been indicating his ERA this season is about where it ought to be. His increased walk rate is killing him. His peripherals the past 2 seasons have not been great, but the season before last he survived by stranding nearly 90% of runners - more likely luck than skill (see: Dice-K's strand rate in his second year, and his subsequent years). Doubt he goes anywhere, though.

I get the feeling that Beltre isn't interested in playing in Oakland. I remember reading something to that effect. I think that Oakland is competitive now largely due to "addition by subtraction" - the Rangers became a lot weaker after losing Lee, and to be honest I'm feel their rotation's numbers last season were a bit flukey. Although, I'm also not that high on Oakland's rotation, but I think it's better than Texas'.

I'm not old enough to remember Roberto Clemente, but I have heard of him non-stop at Pirates games. It seems to be all that the announcers are capable of talking about. Him and Honus Wagner. Of course, the Pirates also made a big fuss about their offseason acquisition of Akinori Iwamura, so...but I guess they're at least right to hype Clemente. Given their roster.

Think he was referring to Salty.

Stubbs stole 30 bases, so it's not unreasonable for his BABIP to be .330. Faster players have higher BABIPs. The strikeouts are a concern, but it's not like he will be a bad player with a high strikeout rate. It just means that his OBP likely won't exceed .350 or so (if he's lucky), which isn't a bad rate. Just look at the K% leaderboard, a lot of those players are quite good. Many of the available OFs cost some money. Even Jeff Francoeur got a $2.5 million deal. Given that the Phillies are looking more to unload an OF, rather an acquire one, I doubt they have the payroll flexibility to add anything.

And I think you're selling it long (is that a saying? I'm not too sure). First, there's no possible way they can acquire another OF. They're already looking to dump Ibanez and Blanton after the Lee deal. Second, in the areas where the Phillies are better than the Reds, they are generally not better by much (except when comparing Utley to Phillips), IMO. Third, I believe Jay Bruce is significantly better than Domonic Brown (and I mean really significantly). Perhaps as much as the difference between Utley and Phillips. And, Ibanez is on the decline; the difference between Ibanez and Gomes is not very large, though I think Ibanez is slightly better. And, Stubbs is as good, if not better than, Victorino (though I may be a bit biased, since I rate Stubbs very highly). Going by your logic, I feel that they are very similar in position-by-position numbers. Fourth, the Phillies are very vulnerable to LH pitching, given that Polanco, Victorino and Ruiz are their only RH batters. I would not be surprised if the Phillies had to face a left-handed reliever in the majority of their games. Finally, the Phillies 772 runs. The Reds scored 790. Phillies get some more of Utley, lose Werth; Reds get a bit more of Rolen.

Colorado's road performance is also perhaps a product of their stadium. If you look at their team home/road splits in batting average (something that should not be drastically affected by increased HRs, etc), it's a drastic split. They had the worst away BA of all teams last season (.228) and the best home BA of all teams (.298). Going back a few seasons, that seems to be a very strong trend, and one so drastic that would suggest that playing in Coors also hurts them on the road. Plus, it's not like the Phillies play in a pitcher's park. The Reds have Drew Stubbs, who is not a bad player; Cabrera, who has been slightly above-average for SS his career (although he may have lost a step); Jonny Gomes, same deal with Stubbs (very similar wOBA, similar type of player - low BA/OBP, high power), and Ramon Hernandez, who has also been above-average over the last few years. None of them are standouts, but when many of the players on the Phillies are just slightly above average (Rollins and Ruiz), I think the Reds have arguably a better lineup.

Cincinnati, Colorado, Milwaukee

Ruiz beats "average" by not very much, which factors in his anomalous 2010 performance. Rollins' past 2 seasons have also barely been above average, and given his age and recent decline I don't think that it will be much better. I didn't realize Victorino had injury problems last year. I'm not saying that it's a bad lineup, it's just not one of the top lineups in the NL IMO. With the loss of Werth, and their subsequent vulnerability to LH pitching, I don't think that it's a top 3 lineup next season (in the NL). Of course, I still think they'll do fine given their monster pitching staff, I just don't think their lineup is really elite anymore.

Rollins has been overrated for years, Ruiz can walk but not do much else, and Victorino produces numbers that one might expect from Kalish's first year (not to say that they're bad, but that they're not anything special). Plus, their lineup is really lefty-heavy. LOOGYs turn into LOIGYs.

The only thing that could possibly make me happier would be if the Sox could acquire A-gon or something. Oh, wait. Merry Christmas Talksox

Not one of the best systems, but only due to the lack of ML-ready talent. Kelly was projected to be a 1-2 starter, and Rizzo was projected to be a good-but-not-Adrian-Gonzalez 1B, and Fuentes I don't think was projected that highly. So losing those 3 is certainly a hit, but the strength is and was (before the trade) our lower-level prospects.

The best prospects are 2-3 years away. And our top avaliable talent (Doubront, Iglesias, Kalish) are geared towards filling holes that our roster will have soon (Doubront helps fill relief pitching). Our roster's currently set for the next 3 years, so having talent that won't arrive for awhile is perfect, as Palodios says.

She better not bump Jacoby's ribs in the process. Those ribs are worth millions of dollars.

But can he beat Dustin Pedroia in a dress-off? http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/extras/extra_bases/peteabepics/Blush_Boston_Red_Sox_2.jpg

Actually, redsoxrules is Cliff Lee. That's how he knows with nothing out yet.

I like your avatar, and I'm not surprised you do as well (well, of course, I'm assuming you like it since you have it as your avatar). (Unrelated) Apparently speedsters age better than power hitters. I'm not sure whether they lose some of their speed and make up for it in other skills, or whatever, but here's a study. http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/article/does_speed_age_better/

Still disappointed that Bobby Jenks isn't on that list.

I was referring to what Theo did earlier with the whole "mystery 7 year team" thing. Obviously, Lee would never take a $10 million AAV. But imagine Cashman once news comes out that there's a new "mystery team" "swooping in with a huge new 8-year offer" for Lee. I'd imagine it'd be something like, "GODDAMMIT, f*** YOU THEO"

Really? Theo should just offer Lee 8 years/$80 mil to get the damn Yankees off our back then.

I guess that the Sox view Olivo as a bigger risk, and they feel his hip injury is not a problem going forward. Outside of Colorado, Olivo has had only one real good offensive season, and Martin has perhaps underperformed the past few years? I don't know for sure, though. I'd also guess that they like Martin's flexibility.